There have been global oil supply crises — in 1973-74, 1978-80 and 1990, all triggered by events in the Middle East. There has never been a worldwide natural gas crisis. Now we are in the midst of one — not near the beginning of the end, but probably at the end of the beginning. It is bound to get much worse from here.
There have, of course, been regional gas shocks before, usually because of weather or natural disasters such as Japan’s nuclear shutdown after the 2011 Fukushima accident (leading to a revolution in LNG trading), and some related to cut-offs for political reasons, for instance Russia-Ukraine in 2006 and 2009, and Egyptian exports to Jordan and Israel after the 2011 revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak.
There could not have been a global gas crisis before because the market became globalised only in the last decade. For most of this time, gas prices in the world’s key consuming areas — North America, Europe and East Asia — were historically low. Investment dried up, even before prices slumped further during the pandemic in 2020. The Netherlands decided to shut down its giant Groningen field over earth tremors, removing a key source of flexible supply in Europe.
LNG export capacity still grew robustly up to 2020, driven by Australia, Russia and the US, but this was the result of projects approved earlier. Most projections saw the market becoming tight by the mid-2020s.
Three factors turned a medium-term price squeeze into an immediate crisis. First was Beijing’s decision in 2017 to replace coal with gas in home heating and industry, to clean up its smoggy air. This recreated the early-2000s oil and metals “China shock” in the gas market. This year, China overtook Japan as the world’s biggest LNG importer.
Second was the heavy spending by governments across the world to promote recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. LNG prices hit record lows during the Covid-19 lockdowns in 2020, but then resurged to all-time highs in early 2021 with some technical interruptions to supply, and high demand because of stimulus and unfavourable weather.
And third was Russia’s war in Ukraine, which is making the tight pre-war European gas market even more fraught.
The US and UK have already banned the import of gas from Russia. The EU has put coal under interdict, will consider stopping oil purchases, and will try to cut its use of Russian gas by two-thirds by the end of this year, and entirely well before 2030.
Oil and coal can mostly be redirected to other buyers; gas relies on fixed pipelines. Eighty-three per cent of Russian gas exports go by pipeline and, of that, 85 per cent is directed to Europe. Plans to send more [gas] to China will be lengthy, expensive and much less profitable. New Russian LNG projects were also a key part of anticipated future supply; they will now be long-delayed by lack of access to finance and technology, and buyer reluctance.
Since the start of the war, Russian gas flows to Europe have actually increased. The continent pays an estimated $700 million per day for Russian oil, $400m for gas and $22m for coal. If Brussels imposes an outright ban on Russian gas, or taxes, tariffs or escrow accounts to cut the flow of revenue, the Kremlin would likely retaliate.
In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin already pre-emptively demanded that “unfriendly” countries pay their gas bills in roubles. This could be an opening gambit to start cutting supplies, or a divide-and-rule tactic. Battlefield losses will cause the Kremlin to try to open new fronts. This gas shock is going to get much worse.
Consumers have developed the tools to tackle an oil crisis since the 1970s. The International Energy Agency co-ordinates the release of strategic stocks, Opec countries use some of their spare production capacity, supplies are shuffled around geographically, and, more recently, US shale drilling increases. Nothing like this exists for gas. Removing Russian exports, a quarter of the world total, is like eliminating the entire GCC and Iraq from global oil sales.
Countries do store substantial gas, but this is to meet seasonal (usually winter) needs, not to cushion against one-off shocks. Europe has to buy extra gas this year just to refill its dwindled stocks.
LNG export plants usually run close to maximum, so a deficit in one region cannot be easily met by a surplus elsewhere. North America can drill for more shale gas, but this cannot depart the continent without spare liquefaction capacity.
In the short and medium term, the gas crisis will be economically and environmentally destructive. It will force a revival of coal and heavy fuel oil, as Europe outbids price-sensitive South and South-East Asian buyers for LNG.
Of course, current non-Russian gas exporters will benefit greatly from high prices, demand and elevated geopolitical importance. Prospective hydrogen suppliers have also just gained impetus. It is no surprise that German economy and climate minister Robert Habeck visited Doha and Abu Dhabi last month.
New LNG plants, and any pipelines to Europe that avoid political minefields, will enjoy a few bountiful years.
Gas expert Nikos Tsafos, at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, suggests an innovative deal where Europe could commit to buy new LNG this decade, while Asia picks up those plants’ output in the 2030s. But it is a race. Projects, whether from Africa, the US or the Gulf, that come by 2030 or later, will face much more competition and lower demand than seemed likely.
Europe and East Asia will boost renewables, energy efficiency, electrification of heating and some nuclear power, but many heavy industries will be forced to close.
The manufacture of steel, aluminium and fertilisers will be pushed even more into areas with lower-cost energy. Soviet gas gained in the 1980s as Europe tried to decrease its use of Middle East energy. This crisis will reverse that verdict.
Robin M Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4-litre%20flat-six%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E525hp%20(GT3)%2C%20500hp%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E465Nm%20(GT3)%2C%20450Nm%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20automatic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh944%2C000%20(GT3)%2C%20Dh581%2C700%20(GT4)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
More on animal trafficking
RACE SCHEDULE
All times UAE ( 4 GMT)
Friday, September 29
First practice: 7am - 8.30am
Second practice: 11am - 12.30pm
Saturday, September 30
Qualifying: 1pm - 2pm
Sunday, October 1
Race: 11am - 1pm
Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.5-litre%204-cylinder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20101hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20135Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Six-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh79%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Sri Lanka-India Test series schedule
- 1st Test India won by 304 runs at Galle
- 2nd Test Thursday-Monday at Colombo
- 3rd Test August 12-16 at Pallekele
MADAME%20WEB
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20S.J.%20Clarkson%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Dakota%20Johnson%2C%20Tahar%20Rahim%2C%20Sydney%20Sweeney%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
New process leads to panic among jobseekers
As a UAE-based travel agent who processes tourist visas from the Philippines, Jennifer Pacia Gado is fielding a lot of calls from concerned travellers just now. And they are all asking the same question.
“My clients are mostly Filipinos, and they [all want to know] about good conduct certificates,” says the 34-year-old Filipina, who has lived in the UAE for five years.
Ms Gado contacted the Philippines Embassy to get more information on the certificate so she can share it with her clients. She says many are worried about the process and associated costs – which could be as high as Dh500 to obtain and attest a good conduct certificate from the Philippines for jobseekers already living in the UAE.
“They are worried about this because when they arrive here without the NBI [National Bureau of Investigation] clearance, it is a hassle because it takes time,” she says.
“They need to go first to the embassy to apply for the application of the NBI clearance. After that they have go to the police station [in the UAE] for the fingerprints. And then they will apply for the special power of attorney so that someone can finish the process in the Philippines. So it is a long process and more expensive if you are doing it from here.”
Dubai World Cup nominations
UAE: Thunder Snow/Saeed bin Suroor (trainer), North America/Satish Seemar, Drafted/Doug Watson, New Trails/Ahmad bin Harmash, Capezzano, Gronkowski, Axelrod, all trained by Salem bin Ghadayer
USA: Seeking The Soul/Dallas Stewart, Imperial Hunt/Luis Carvajal Jr, Audible/Todd Pletcher, Roy H/Peter Miller, Yoshida/William Mott, Promises Fulfilled/Dale Romans, Gunnevera/Antonio Sano, XY Jet/Jorge Navarro, Pavel/Doug O’Neill, Switzerland/Steve Asmussen.
Japan: Matera Sky/Hideyuki Mori, KT Brace/Haruki Sugiyama. Bahrain: Nine Below Zero/Fawzi Nass. Ireland: Tato Key/David Marnane. Hong Kong: Fight Hero/Me Tsui. South Korea: Dolkong/Simon Foster.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
Bullet%20Train
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Leitch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Brad%20Pitt%2C%20Aaron%20Taylor-Johnson%2C%20Brian%20Tyree%20Henry%2C%20Sandra%20Bullock%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Players Selected for La Liga Trials
U18 Age Group
Name: Ahmed Salam (Malaga)
Position: Right Wing
Nationality: Jordanian
Name: Yahia Iraqi (Malaga)
Position: Left Wing
Nationality: Morocco
Name: Mohammed Bouherrafa (Almeria)
Position: Centre-Midfield
Nationality: French
Name: Mohammed Rajeh (Cadiz)
Position: Striker
Nationality: Jordanian
U16 Age Group
Name: Mehdi Elkhamlichi (Malaga)
Position: Lead Striker
Nationality: Morocco
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Match info
Liverpool 4
Salah (19'), Mane (45 2', 53'), Sturridge (87')
West Ham United 0
Sun jukebox
Rufus Thomas, Bear Cat (The Answer to Hound Dog) (1953)
This rip-off of Leiber/Stoller’s early rock stomper brought a lawsuit against Phillips and necessitated Presley’s premature sale to RCA.
Elvis Presley, Mystery Train (1955)
The B-side of Presley’s final single for Sun bops with a drummer-less groove.
Johnny Cash and the Tennessee Two, Folsom Prison Blues (1955)
Originally recorded for Sun, Cash’s signature tune was performed for inmates of the titular prison 13 years later.
Carl Perkins, Blue Suede Shoes (1956)
Within a month of Sun’s February release Elvis had his version out on RCA.
Roy Orbison, Ooby Dooby (1956)
An essential piece of irreverent juvenilia from Orbison.
Jerry Lee Lewis, Great Balls of Fire (1957)
Lee’s trademark anthem is one of the era’s best-remembered – and best-selling – songs.
Three ways to limit your social media use
Clinical psychologist, Dr Saliha Afridi at The Lighthouse Arabia suggests three easy things you can do every day to cut back on the time you spend online.
1. Put the social media app in a folder on the second or third screen of your phone so it has to remain a conscious decision to open, rather than something your fingers gravitate towards without consideration.
2. Schedule a time to use social media instead of consistently throughout the day. I recommend setting aside certain times of the day or week when you upload pictures or share information.
3. Take a mental snapshot rather than a photo on your phone. Instead of sharing it with your social world, try to absorb the moment, connect with your feeling, experience the moment with all five of your senses. You will have a memory of that moment more vividly and for far longer than if you take a picture of it.
The specs: 2018 Mercedes-Benz E 300 Cabriolet
Price, base / as tested: Dh275,250 / Dh328,465
Engine: 2.0-litre four-cylinder
Power: 245hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm @ 1,300rpm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Match info:
Portugal 1
Ronaldo (4')
Morocco 0
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Power: 640hp
Torque: 760nm
On sale: 2026
Price: Not announced yet
How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE
When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.
'Texas Chainsaw Massacre'
Rating: 1 out of 4
Running time: 81 minutes
Director: David Blue Garcia
Starring: Sarah Yarkin, Elsie Fisher, Mark Burnham
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EShaffra%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDIFC%20Innovation%20Hub%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Emetaverse-as-a-Service%20(MaaS)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Ecurrently%20closing%20%241.5%20million%20seed%20round%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Epre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%20Abu%20Dhabi%20and%20different%20PCs%20and%20angel%20investors%20from%20Saudi%20Arabia%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enine%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SCHEDULE
Saturday, April 20: 11am to 7pm - Abu Dhabi World Jiu-Jitsu Festival and Para jiu-jitsu.
Sunday, April 21: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (female) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Monday, April 22: 11am to 6pm - Abu Dhabi World Youth (male) Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Tuesday, April 23: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Masters Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Wednesday, April 24: 11am-6pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Thursday, April 25: 11am-5pm Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Friday, April 26: 3pm to 6pm Finals of the Abu Dhabi World Professional Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
Saturday, April 27: 4pm and 8pm awards ceremony.
Wenger's Arsenal reign in numbers
1,228 - games at the helm, ahead of Sunday's Premier League fixture against West Ham United.
704 - wins to date as Arsenal manager.
3 - Premier League title wins, the last during an unbeaten Invincibles campaign of 2003/04.
1,549 - goals scored in Premier League matches by Wenger's teams.
10 - major trophies won.
473 - Premier League victories.
7 - FA Cup triumphs, with three of those having come the last four seasons.
151 - Premier League losses.
21 - full seasons in charge.
49 - games unbeaten in the Premier League from May 2003 to October 2004.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
What is an FTO Designation?
FTO designations impose immigration restrictions on members of the organisation simply by virtue of their membership and triggers a criminal prohibition on knowingly providing material support or resources to the designated organisation as well as asset freezes.
It is a crime for a person in the United States or subject to the jurisdiction of the United States to knowingly provide “material support or resources” to or receive military-type training from or on behalf of a designated FTO.
Representatives and members of a designated FTO, if they are aliens, are inadmissible to and, in certain circumstances removable from, the United States.
Except as authorised by the Secretary of the Treasury, any US financial institution that becomes aware that it has possession of or control over funds in which an FTO or its agent has an interest must retain possession of or control over the funds and report the funds to the Treasury Department.
Source: US Department of State
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-finals, first leg
Liverpool v Roma
When: April 24, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Anfield, Liverpool
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Most match wins on clay
Guillermo Vilas - 659
Manuel Orantes - 501
Thomas Muster - 422
Rafael Nadal - 399 *
Jose Higueras - 378
Eddie Dibbs - 370
Ilie Nastase - 338
Carlos Moya - 337
Ivan Lendl - 329
Andres Gomez - 322
