Q is familiar to us as the ingenious MI6 inventor, frustrated with James Bond’s repeated destruction of his gadgets. But Q may one day be also well-known as the energy yield from a fusion reaction — the source that powers the stars, and may light up Earth too.
Unlike traditional nuclear fission, fusion brings atoms — usually isotopes of hydrogen — together rather than splitting them. It has many advantages. The process is zero-carbon, uses common fuels with very high energy density, is inherently safe with no risk of meltdown or weapons proliferation, and produces very little high-level radioactive waste.
But fusion is technically enormously challenging. Depending on the approach, it can require a millionth of atmospheric pressure, temperatures of 100 million degrees Celsius and magnetism 280,000 times the Earth’s natural field to contain the plasma of ionised hydrogen. The flow of neutrons from the reaction generates the heat to be captured as useful energy, but damages the materials containing it. Components the size of a six-storey building must be assembled with precision of less than a millimetre.
The reaction has to be sustained long enough to provide useful energy that exceeds the electrical power that started it, and hence the importance of Q, the ratio of energy input to output. A practical power reactor needs to achieve at least five, at which point fusion becomes self-sustaining.
Earlier this month, the Joint European Torus (Jet), a research centre in the UK, announced a record for the highest sustained energy from fusion. Jet’s Q value was 0.33 — for five seconds, an aeon in fusion time. In August, the US National Ignition Facility, or Nif, reached 0.7 from laser-initiated fusion over a shorter period.
Nif’s energy yield has improved a thousand-fold over the past decade and they said they achieved “ignition” in further work in November. The Iter reactor under construction in France by an EU-led international consortium hopes to begin experiments in 2025 and achieve a Q of 10.
Researched since the 1950s, fusion’s history as a practical energy source has been a saga of fitful interest and enthusiasm, with genuine progress disguised by failure to meet optimistic predictions. Now that seems to be changing.
New optimism comes from progress by government-funded institutions such as Jet, Nif and Iter, and advances in materials science. Superconducting magnets and computer modelling, and a wave of private companies, including innovative start-ups, with new approaches, also bode well for its success.
US oil major Chevron invested in a fusion start-up, Zap Energy, in 2020. Helion, which extracts energy directly from the fusion reaction rather than its heat, raised $500 million in November, which was a record at the time, to expand its development.
That was surpassed in December when investors put a remarkable $1.8 billion into Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), whose backers include oil companies Eni and Equinor, and Bill Gates’s investment vehicle Breakthrough Energy. CFS is trying to commercialise fusion based on high-temperature superconducting magnets.
The diversity of approaches and the large funding now available give hope of yielding at least one viable system. Helion wants a working demonstration plant by 2024, while CFS hopes to have a commercial unit up and running by the early 2030s.
Helion estimates it could generate electricity for 1 US cent per kilowatt-hour. That is about the level of the current cheapest solar power — but from a 50-megawatt system the size of a shipping container, and available regardless of daytime, weather and seasons. It is well below the costs of coal, gas or traditional nuclear fission.
Such a compact system could power ships or perhaps even planes and spacecraft. It could provide electricity and heat for industries, to make hydrogen, to desalinate water and to suck excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Of course, we should not bet our energy and climate future on fusion. To meet global net-zero carbon goals around 2050, electricity generation would have to be net-zero by 2040. That does not leave much time for fusion to contribute.
But we may find ourselves struggling in 2040 to deliver reliable, affordable, zero-carbon grids worldwide, particularly to cover the last 20 per cent or so of demand that becomes very costly with renewables. This includes, for instance, long cold but windless winter spells in northerly climes, or cold fronts that sweep in and raise heating demand hugely within hours.
The scale of minerals and biofuels to build a renewable-dominated energy complex is enormous, likely to raise costs and cause environmental damage. The more options we have, like carbon capture and storage, and advanced nuclear fission, the better the chance of building a robust, cost-effective system that overcomes unexpected roadblocks from a more narrow-minded approach.
New energy demands will emerge by mid-century, such as ubiquitous autonomous vehicles and drones, hypersonic intercontinental travel, widespread personal robots, and commonplace space tourism and industry. To meet global climate goals, a forest of machines capturing carbon dioxide from the air in 2100 would use energy equivalent to more than half of all global demand today.
Low-cost reusable rockets are opening up the frontiers of space, making large-scale expeditions and even settlements in orbit or on the Moon and Mars plausible. We have found almost 5,000 extrasolar planets, including three around our Sun’s nearest neighbouring star, Proxima Centauri. A robotic fusion-driven mission might get there within a few decades — not a prospect for today, but perhaps a realistic dream for late this century.
There is a future beyond the climate challenge. Very cheap, abundant clean energy from fusion will be more than a clever gimmick. Only our imagination and a little humility limits what we could achieve.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
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Profile of Tarabut Gateway
Founder: Abdulla Almoayed
Based: UAE
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 35
Sector: FinTech
Raised: $13 million
Backers: Berlin-based venture capital company Target Global, Kingsway, CE Ventures, Entrée Capital, Zamil Investment Group, Global Ventures, Almoayed Technologies and Mad’a Investment.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
Terror attacks in Paris, November 13, 2015
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany
- At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people
- Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed
- Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest
- He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
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More coverage from the Future Forum
The Vile
Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah
Director: Majid Al Ansari
Rating: 4/5
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League final:
Who: Real Madrid v Liverpool
Where: NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium, Kiev, Ukraine
When: Saturday, May 26, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match on BeIN Sports
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
T20 World Cup Qualifier A, Muscat
Friday, February 18: 10am - Oman v Nepal, Canada v Philippines; 2pm - Ireland v UAE, Germany v Bahrain
Saturday, February 19: 10am - Oman v Canada, Nepal v Philippines; 2pm - UAE v Germany, Ireland v Bahrain
Monday, February 21: 10am - Ireland v Germany, UAE v Bahrain; 2pm - Nepal v Canada, Oman v Philippines
Tuesday, February 22: 2pm – semi-finals
Thursday, February 24: 2pm – final
UAE squad: Ahmed Raza (captain), Muhammad Waseem, Chirag Suri, Vriitya Aravind, Rohan Mustafa, Kashif Daud, Zahoor Khan, Alishan Sharafu, Raja Akifullah, Karthik Meiyappan, Junaid Siddique, Basil Hameed, Zafar Farid, Mohammed Boota, Mohammed Usman, Rahul Bhatia
All matches to be streamed live on icc.tv
FORSPOKEN
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Starfield
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WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
