Headlines about rising prices are everywhere at the moment – for food, fuel, metals, medicine, computer chips and much more. One of the most significant rises is for the least tangible commodity – European carbon emissions credits. Its record highs have profound implications for the world economy and environment.
The European Trading Scheme began in 2005, and obliges large greenhouse gas emitters, such as power plants, factories and airlines, to hold an allowance for each tonne of carbon dioxide they release. The UK introduced an equivalent system when it left the EU.
It is intended to penalise polluters and encourage them to shift to lower-carbon technologies, for instance by replacing a coal power plant with solar and wind, or an oil boiler with gas or electric heating. The number of allowances is limited and decreases each year, so if companies are too slow in decarbonising, the price will rise.
This market-based mechanism should be more efficient than the US system of mandates and regulations (though the EU has these too). In fact, the archetype of the ETS was introduced by the US in 1990 to cap emissions of sulphur dioxide, which causes acid rain. It proved highly successful and compliance costs were much lower than expected.
For years, the ETS was a joke. It was undercut by more prescriptive rules such as renewable energy targets, by free allocations to big polluters and by the release of “hot air” from permits that exceeded what emissions would have been anyway. Between 2011 and 2017, prices languished around about €5 ($5.61) to €10 tonne, not enough to change anyone’s behaviour significantly.
But in 2018, the rules were tightened and prices started rising. After slipping during the pandemic last year, carbon prices leapt 67 per cent in the first half of this year and reached a record of €88.88 on December 8.
This reflects the revival of economic activity. But it is also accompanied by a surge in gas prices that feeds off and drives the carbon price surge. When gas prices were relatively low, the ETS price would find the level that encouraged power plants to switch from dirty coal to much cleaner gas. For other businesses, the carbon price has been a cost of doing business, not a fundamental driver.
But now, gas prices are too expensive to be preferred to coal – it would need a carbon price of €300 per tonne to equalise them. So power plants combust both coal and allowances simultaneously, driving up the carbon price for every other industry.
Even if the gas price eases after the European winter, other factors will support carbon prices. Germany’s new government plans to set a price floor of €60 per tonne. Shipping will also be included in the ETS and a separate carbon price will be introduced for road transport and building heating. There is a speculative element too to the price jump, as the EU’s plans to slash emissions to 61 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030 imply a sharp reduction in allowances from 2025 onwards.
Such high carbon prices matter for three reasons. Firstly, they will affect the world beyond the EU and UK. Several other jurisdictions have carbon prices, such as some north-eastern US states and California, Canada, South Korea, Japan and China. These markets are not integrated and trade at very different prices – generally well below the EU’s.
But to protect its industries from competition from countries without strong carbon pricing, the EU intends to bring in a carbon border tariff from 2023, which will apply to energy-intensive materials such as steel, aluminium and fertilisers. That will be a strong incentive for others to adopt a carbon price or tax, so they collect revenue rather than paying it to European authorities. That could create a critical mass of linked trade blocs.
Secondly, the tariff will drive major shifts of energy use within the EU. A rate of $100 per tonne of carbon dioxide is equivalent to about $5.3 per million British thermal units of gas (the European price for 2022 is about $26), but almost $200 per tonne of coal, compared to Australian export prices today of $169 per tonne.
So the move will drive out coal in favour of gas. But as coal use is declining and gas prices rise, the latter will also be pressured versus renewables. Efficiency retrofits will reduce overall gas use, turning the attention of the gas market ever more towards Asia where it can still replace coal.
Prices for flights will rise significantly though not intolerably – a return Dubai-New York economy flight, currently selling for about $1200, would increase by $370 at a $100 per tonne carbon price.
Thirdly, the tariffs will encourage innovation that will spread out worldwide. Clean hydrogen will become increasingly attractive in industry. Carbon capture and storage will be viable without subsidies in many cases with carbon prices above $80 per tonne. A proposed tax credit up to $85 per tonne could have a similar effect in the US.
This all requires that Europe sticks on its course, the inevitable political backlash is overcome, and that other countries are drawn into stringent carbon pricing. The road ahead is far from clear, but strong carbon pricing will smooth the way for faster and more radical change than we have imagined.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
MATCH INFO
Barcelona 2
Suarez (10'), Messi (52')
Real Madrid 2
Ronaldo (14'), Bale (72')
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League, Group C
Liverpool v Red Star Belgrade
Anfield, Liverpool
Wednesday, 11pm (UAE)
More coverage from the Future Forum
Francesco Totti's bio
Born September 27, 1976
Position Attacking midifelder
Clubs played for (1) - Roma
Total seasons 24
First season 1992/93
Last season 2016/17
Appearances 786
Goals 307
Titles (5) - Serie A 1; Italian Cup 2; Italian Supercup 2
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
ACL Elite (West) - fixtures
Monday, Sept 30
Al Sadd v Esteghlal (8pm)
Persepolis v Pakhtakor (8pm)
Al Wasl v Al Ahli (8pm)
Al Nassr v Al Rayyan (10pm)
Tuesday, Oct 1
Al Hilal v Al Shorta (10pm)
Al Gharafa v Al Ain (10pm)
Biography
Favourite book: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
Holiday choice: Anything Disney-related
Proudest achievement: Receiving a presidential award for foreign services.
Family: Wife and three children.
Like motto: You always get what you ask for, the universe listens.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
More from Neighbourhood Watch
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Empty Words
By Mario Levrero
(Coffee House Press)
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
F1 The Movie
Starring: Brad Pitt, Damson Idris, Kerry Condon, Javier Bardem
Director: Joseph Kosinski
Rating: 4/5
Results
5pm: Wadi Nagab – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Al Falaq, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)
5.30pm: Wadi Sidr – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Fakhama, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
6.30pm: Wadi Shees – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mutaqadim, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 – Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Wadi Tayyibah – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Poster Paint, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar
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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDual%20synchronous%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C108hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C340Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%20(front%20axle)%3B%20two-speed%20transmission%20(rear%20axle)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E488-560km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh928%2C400%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOrders%20open%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Emergency phone numbers in the UAE
Estijaba – 8001717 – number to call to request coronavirus testing
Ministry of Health and Prevention – 80011111
Dubai Health Authority – 800342 – The number to book a free video or voice consultation with a doctor or connect to a local health centre
Emirates airline – 600555555
Etihad Airways – 600555666
Ambulance – 998
Knowledge and Human Development Authority – 8005432 ext. 4 for Covid-19 queries
THE%20HOLDOVERS
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
INFO
SPECS
Mini John Cooper Works Clubman and Mini John Cooper Works Countryman
Engine: two-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 306hp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: JCW Clubman, Dh220,500; JCW Countryman, Dh225,500
How being social media savvy can improve your well being
Next time when procastinating online remember that you can save thousands on paying for a personal trainer and a gym membership simply by watching YouTube videos and keeping up with the latest health tips and trends.
As social media apps are becoming more and more consumed by health experts and nutritionists who are using it to awareness and encourage patients to engage in physical activity.
Elizabeth Watson, a personal trainer from Stay Fit gym in Abu Dhabi suggests that “individuals can use social media as a means of keeping fit, there are a lot of great exercises you can do and train from experts at home just by watching videos on YouTube”.
Norlyn Torrena, a clinical nutritionist from Burjeel Hospital advises her clients to be more technologically active “most of my clients are so engaged with their phones that I advise them to download applications that offer health related services”.
Torrena said that “most people believe that dieting and keeping fit is boring”.
However, by using social media apps keeping fit means that people are “modern and are kept up to date with the latest heath tips and trends”.
“It can be a guide to a healthy lifestyle and exercise if used in the correct way, so I really encourage my clients to download health applications” said Mrs Torrena.
People can also connect with each other and exchange “tips and notes, it’s extremely healthy and fun”.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Tales of Yusuf Tadros
Adel Esmat (translated by Mandy McClure)
Hoopoe
match info
Manchester United 3 (Martial 7', 44', 74')
Sheffield United 0
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.4-litre%204-cylinder%20turbo%20hybrid%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20366hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E550Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESix-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh360%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile of Tarabut Gateway
Founder: Abdulla Almoayed
Based: UAE
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 35
Sector: FinTech
Raised: $13 million
Backers: Berlin-based venture capital company Target Global, Kingsway, CE Ventures, Entrée Capital, Zamil Investment Group, Global Ventures, Almoayed Technologies and Mad’a Investment.
COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENomad%20Homes%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHelen%20Chen%2C%20Damien%20Drap%2C%20and%20Dan%20Piehler%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20and%20Europe%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20PropTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2444m%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Acrew%20Capital%2C%2001%20Advisors%2C%20HighSage%20Ventures%2C%20Abstract%20Ventures%2C%20Partech%2C%20Precursor%20Ventures%2C%20Potluck%20Ventures%2C%20Knollwood%20and%20several%20undisclosed%20hedge%20funds%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
EXPATS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Lulu%20Wang%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nicole%20Kidman%2C%20Sarayu%20Blue%2C%20Ji-young%20Yoo%2C%20Brian%20Tee%2C%20Jack%20Huston%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE squad
Ali Kashief, Salem Rashid, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Khalfan Mubarak, Ali Mabkhout, Omar Abdelrahman, Mohammed Al Attas (Al Jazira), Mohmmed Al Shamsi, Hamdan Al Kamali, Mohammad Barghash, Khalil Al Hammadi (Al Wahda), Khalid Eisa, Mohammed Shakir, Ahmed Barman, Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Adel Al Hosani, Al Hassan Saleh, Majid Suroor (Sharjah), Waleed Abbas, Ismail Al Hammadi, Ahmed Khalil (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai) Habib Fardan, Tariq Ahmed, Mohammed Al Akbari (Al Nasr), Ali Saleh, Ali Salmeen (Al Wasl), Hassan Al Mahrami (Baniyas)
