In the run-up to November’s Cop26 conference, four recent publications illustrate just how difficult it is to tackle climate change.
The technical solutions are well-understood and gaining in maturity all the time. The problem, as it has been since the start, is with the politics.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s eagerly-anticipated new report, released early last month, emphasised the ever-growing confidence in the urgent warnings from climate science. Denmark and Costa Rica announced an alliance, which they hope others will join, to end fossil fuel production.
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, and Iraqi finance minister Ali Allawi, co-wrote an article in The Guardian on Wednesday arguing that oil-producing states need assistance in decarbonising. Meanwhile, Nigeria's vice president Yemi Osinbajo wrote in Foreign Affairs that the push for immediate divestment from oil and gas is harmful for Africa.
Yet despite all these alarms, global greenhouse gas emissions, which fell 6 per cent during last year’s lockdowns, are expected to rise 3 per cent this year. To be on the path of the Paris Agreement, greenhouse gas releases should be falling 7.6 per cent annually.
The ever-growing frustration of climate scientists, policymakers and activists in the face of clear warnings of growing perils is understandable. We do not have all the solutions for net-zero carbon by 2050, but we have more than enough to make major advances this decade. Yet actual progress in reducing emissions lags far behind what is required.
This situation is entirely political. In the early 1990s during negotiations over the Kyoto Protocol, concerns were that developing countries were not taking on any binding commitments, and conversely, that developed countries were not taking their historical responsibility seriously enough to provide climate finance and technology.
With the rise of China, India and Middle Eastern petroleum exporters as economic powerhouses, that dichotomy has faded. Now international rivalries intervene. Current and potential petroleum producers see their path to prosperity blocked as they are expected to sacrifice for a greater good they may not enjoy.
The problem is that exhortations to action and statements about what countries, corporations and individuals “should” do lack an appreciation of how to bring this about politically.
Even the largest nations can individually only make a small dent in the climate problem, while preserving their own competitiveness. Unilateral action is constrained by a few deliberate spoilers and many more free-riders in the international arena.
Companies’ freedom of action is even more constrained. They are responsible to shareholders and have to be at least minimally profitable to stay in business. Apart from a few pioneers in specific climate-friendly technologies, none can get too far ahead of the pack. Still, this does not excuse individual lobbying and disinformation against climate action.
Individuals are in the hardest position. The rather lame excuses proffered by Extinction Rebellion activists for driving petrol cars or flying to Costa Rica highlight hypocrisy. But they also show how difficult a “normal” and yet low-carbon middle-class lifestyle is.
Much of the climate debate, couched in scientific and economic principles, is actually about power. This is particularly so in a few Western countries where global warming has become just another front in the tediously negative culture wars.
In a sudden conversion away from their supposed pro-market principles, several US states and Australia are trying to rig the game in favour of coal and gas-fired electricity plants whose financial viability is undermined by low-cost renewables.
Conversely, environmental activists reject any part of the climate solution – nuclear power, carbon capture and storage, hydrogen – that does not fit an ideologically-approved narrative. The problem for them is not that fossil fuel companies emit carbon dioxide; it is that they exist.
These internal political quagmires infect international relations too. Several advanced democracies, including the US, cannot persuade large parts of their population to take a free vaccine against a deadly disease.
And while certain countries’ pandemic responses have been well-organised, the overall international response has been shambolic. The same is true of the response to other crises of recent times, such as the Syrian civil war and its refugees. Freer trade, the rare positive-sum game, is in reverse.
The US cannot credibly commit to a course of action from one election to the next, whether over the Paris Agreement, Iran or fighting the Taliban. The UK has squandered much of its diplomatic credibility over Brexit. The EU lacks appreciation of blending hard power with its undeniable regulatory influence. Moscow and Beijing are widely mistrusted.
This is not promising for the response to an ever-intensifying, complex and multifarious challenge, which itself spawns many sub-crises. Yet domestic and international politics are not going to change radically on demand – that is an even longer, harder and less predictable task than fixing the climate.
There are two ways forward. One is to give the three-decade path of negotiation and co-operation sharper teeth. That means climate clubs that reward low-emitters with finance, technology and market access, give oil producers viable non-polluting options and make those on the outside envious with measures such as carbon tariffs.
The other is to harness competition, as the Cold War did for space. The climate, energy and economics strategies of President Biden, the EU’s “Fit for 55” and Xi Jinping’s China all see green technologies as the key. Solar panels and electric cars move from virtuous signs of tree-huggers to matters of national security, patriotism and profit.
These approaches are not tidy or morally satisfying. The Cop26 talks in Glasgow should yield further co-operation. But to achieve anything like the required pace, nations and companies need to harness politics to compel action.
Robin Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Biography
Favourite drink: Must have karak chai and Chinese tea every day
Favourite non-Chinese food: Arabic sweets and Indian puri, small round bread of wheat flour
Favourite Chinese dish: Spicy boiled fish or anything cooked by her mother because of its flavour
Best vacation: Returning home to China
Music interests: Enjoys playing the zheng, a string musical instrument
Enjoys reading: Chinese novels, romantic comedies, reading up on business trends, government policy changes
Favourite book: Chairman Mao Zedong’s poems
Company%20Profile
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Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
How to become a Boglehead
Bogleheads follow simple investing philosophies to build their wealth and live better lives. Just follow these steps.
• Spend less than you earn and save the rest. You can do this by earning more, or being frugal. Better still, do both.
• Invest early, invest often. It takes time to grow your wealth on the stock market. The sooner you begin, the better.
• Choose the right level of risk. Don't gamble by investing in get-rich-quick schemes or high-risk plays. Don't play it too safe, either, by leaving long-term savings in cash.
• Diversify. Do not keep all your eggs in one basket. Spread your money between different companies, sectors, markets and asset classes such as bonds and property.
• Keep charges low. The biggest drag on investment performance is all the charges you pay to advisers and active fund managers.
• Keep it simple. Complexity is your enemy. You can build a balanced, diversified portfolio with just a handful of ETFs.
• Forget timing the market. Nobody knows where share prices will go next, so don't try to second-guess them.
• Stick with it. Do not sell up in a market crash. Use the opportunity to invest more at the lower price.
Results:
5pm: Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m | Winner: AF Tahoonah, Richard Mullen (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
5.30pm: Handicap (TB) Dh90,000 1,400m | Winner: Ajwad, Gerald Avranche, Rashed Bouresly
6pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m | Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinel
6.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m | Winner: Duc De Faust, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 2,200m | Winner: Shareef KB, Fabrice Veron, Ernst Oertel
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 1,500m | Winner: Bainoona, Pat Cosgrave, Eric Lemartinel
Results:
5pm: Maiden (PA) | Dh80,000 | 1,200 metres
Winner: Jabalini, Szczepan Mazur (jockey), Younis Kalbani (trainer)
5.30pm: UAE Arabian Derby (PA) | Prestige | Dh150,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Octave, Gerald Avranche, Abdallah Al Hammadi
6pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round 3 (PA) | Group 3 Dh300,000 | 2,200m
Winner: Harrab, Richard Mullen, Mohamed Ali
6.30pm: Emirates Championship (PA) | Group 1 | Dh1million | 2,200m
Winner: BF Mughader, Szczepan Mazur, Younis Al Kalbani
7pm: Abu Dhabi Championship (TB) | Group 3 | Dh380,000 | 2,200m
Winner: GM Hopkins, Patrick Cosgrave, Jaber Ramadhan
7.30pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) | Conditions | Dh70,000 | 1,600m
Winner: AF La’Asae, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
THE BIO
Born: Mukalla, Yemen, 1979
Education: UAE University, Al Ain
Family: Married with two daughters: Asayel, 7, and Sara, 6
Favourite piece of music: Horse Dance by Naseer Shamma
Favourite book: Science and geology
Favourite place to travel to: Washington DC
Best advice you’ve ever been given: If you have a dream, you have to believe it, then you will see it.
Countries recognising Palestine
France, UK, Canada, Australia, Portugal, Belgium, Malta, Luxembourg, San Marino and Andorra
THE RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Alnawar, Connor Beasley (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
5.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Raniah, Noel Garbutt, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Handicap (PA) Dh90,000 2,200m
Winner: Saarookh, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan Jewel Crown (PA) Rated Conditions Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: RB Torch, Tadhg O’Shea, Eric Lemartinel
7pm: Al Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: MH Wari, Antonio Fresu, Elise Jeane
7.30pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,600m
Winner: Mailshot, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
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MOST%20POLLUTED%20COUNTRIES%20IN%20THE%20WORLD
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Teams
Punjabi Legends Owners: Inzamam-ul-Haq and Intizar-ul-Haq; Key player: Misbah-ul-Haq
Pakhtoons Owners: Habib Khan and Tajuddin Khan; Key player: Shahid Afridi
Maratha Arabians Owners: Sohail Khan, Ali Tumbi, Parvez Khan; Key player: Virender Sehwag
Bangla Tigers Owners: Shirajuddin Alam, Yasin Choudhary, Neelesh Bhatnager, Anis and Rizwan Sajan; Key player: TBC
Colombo Lions Owners: Sri Lanka Cricket; Key player: TBC
Kerala Kings Owners: Hussain Adam Ali and Shafi Ul Mulk; Key player: Eoin Morgan
Venue Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Format 10 overs per side, matches last for 90 minutes
Timeline October 25: Around 120 players to be entered into a draft, to be held in Dubai; December 21: Matches start; December 24: Finals
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
RESULT
West Brom 2 Liverpool 2
West Brom: Livermore (79'), Rondón (88' )
Liverpool: Ings (4'), Salah (72')
'Hocus%20Pocus%202'
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Recent winners
2002 Giselle Khoury (Colombia)
2004 Nathalie Nasralla (France)
2005 Catherine Abboud (Oceania)
2007 Grace Bijjani (Mexico)
2008 Carina El-Keddissi (Brazil)
2009 Sara Mansour (Brazil)
2010 Daniella Rahme (Australia)
2011 Maria Farah (Canada)
2012 Cynthia Moukarzel (Kuwait)
2013 Layla Yarak (Australia)
2014 Lia Saad (UAE)
2015 Cynthia Farah (Australia)
2016 Yosmely Massaad (Venezuela)
2017 Dima Safi (Ivory Coast)
2018 Rachel Younan (Australia)
THE BIO
Favourite car: Koenigsegg Agera RS or Renault Trezor concept car.
Favourite book: I Am Pilgrim by Terry Hayes or Red Notice by Bill Browder.
Biggest inspiration: My husband Nik. He really got me through a lot with his positivity.
Favourite holiday destination: Being at home in Australia, as I travel all over the world for work. It’s great to just hang out with my husband and family.
Race results:
1. Thani Al Qemzi (UAE) Team Abu Dhabi: 46.44 min
2. Peter Morin (FRA) CTIC F1 Shenzhen China Team: 0.91sec
3. Sami Selio (FIN) Mad-Croc Baba Racing Team: 31.43sec
Our legal advisor
Ahmad El Sayed is Senior Associate at Charles Russell Speechlys, a law firm headquartered in London with offices in the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Hong Kong.
Experience: Commercial litigator who has assisted clients with overseas judgments before UAE courts. His specialties are cases related to banking, real estate, shareholder disputes, company liquidations and criminal matters as well as employment related litigation.
Education: Sagesse University, Beirut, Lebanon, in 2005.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
