A long-running tug of war between the industrialised and developing states over cutting carbon pollution is coming to a head, as world leaders start to gather in Copenhagen to pull together a new approach to fight global warming.
Limits on emissions from fossil fuels would have profound effects on the way energy is consumed and produced, a subject of particular interest to energy-exporting Gulf states.
Although experts agree a final draft is unlikely to come out of the two-week summit, negotiators hope to reach a binding political agreement on the key issue of how to divide the burden of carbon emissions cuts globally without hindering development in poorer nations and bankrupting richer ones.
"These are the most difficult talks ever embarked upon by humanity," said Erik Solheim, Norway's environment minister. "The effects will be felt by the rice farmer in Sichuan in China, by Google headquarters in Seattle, or by the oil worker in Norway."
Experts point to groundbreaking emissions pledges from the US and China, the world's two largest emitters, as the main factor that could end the impasse over carbon cuts.
But full consensus on the question of responsibility for cuts remains out of reach, events last week showed, with Australia's Senate rejecting a proposal to cut emissions, European officials calling for larger sacrifices from the rest of the world, and negotiators from developing states quietly pushing against core targets to reduce emissions by 2050.
Rich countries are also divided over the responsibility for contributing an estimated US$10 billion (Dh36.73bn) in aid to developing countries to help them deploy clean sources of energy and adapt to the effects of climate change.
The climate summit begins against a backdrop of renewed controversy over the science of global warming, with climate change sceptics trumpeting a series of leaked e-mails from scientists to argue that the connection between human activity and the warming of the planet remains unproven.
The US will promise to reduce emissions by 17 per cent by 2020 from 2005 levels, based on legislation approved this year by the House of Representatives. World leaders had assumed that the US would not offer a numerical target because legislation has yet to be voted on by the Senate.
On Friday, Robert Gibbs, the spokesman for the White House, confirmed that the US President Barack Obama would join world leaders on the last day of the summit.
"There are still outstanding issues that must be negotiated for an agreement to be reached, but this decision reflects the president's commitment to doing all that he can to pursue a positive outcome," Mr Gibbs said.
He added that the US would pay its "fair share" of financial aid to developing states, without elaborating.
The change in political climate in the US represented a turning point for Copenhagen's fortunes, and lay at the heart of differences between the new climate regime and the expiring Kyoto treaty on global warming, said Steve Howard, the chief executive of the Climate Group, a major lobbying organisation that works with governments and business.
"We previously had a US president who was hostile to the issue until the very last days of his presidency," Mr Howard said. "Kyoto was legally binding but wasn't politically binding in some ways, whereas the language that Obama and others have used, and we've used, is for a politically binding treaty."
Mr Obama's pledge was made possible, in part, by a strong commitment from China to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy. Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, pledged to reduce carbon emissions associated with each unit of GDP by between 40 per cent and 45 per cent by 2020 from its levels in 2005.
Although total emissions from the country will continue to grow, the target will require increases in energy efficiency and a shift away from dirty coal towards using more natural gas, renewable and nuclear energy.
Estimates by professors at People's University in China found that the commitments will require $30bn in investment a year during the next decade, the China Daily reported Friday.
"China's per capita emissions are one fifth of the US so they shouldn't take an absolute reductions target. It's inappropriate for their level of development," Mr Howard said.
"This is the quid pro quo: if the US can put something meaningful on the table that China thinks is OK, then China is ready to put the right level of commitments forward."
Analysts said China's commitment was the key factor that also drove India last week to announce it would reduce the carbon intensity of its economy by between 20 per cent and 25 per cent by 2020. The country's government had previously resisted a formal target.
Yvo de Boer, the top UN climate change official, was optimistic on Friday that the number of commitments would bolster the prospects for agreement at Copenhagen.
"We have a full house in terms of targets from industrialised countries and indications from major developing countries of what they intend to do," Mr de Boer said.
But events last week showed negotiators will still need to cover a lot of ground to reach a consensus.
Stavros Dimas, the EU environment commissioner, said in a clear reference to the US and Australia that some industrialised countries had failed to offer sufficient targets.
"The aggregate offers from developed countries still fall well short of the level of ambition needed, so I urge those countries with weak targets to improve them," Mr Dimas told Agence France-Presse on Wednesday.
Analysts note that the US pledge to cut emissions by 17 per cent from 2005 levels amounts to only 3 per cent when compared with 1990 levels, the benchmark used by the UN and most other countries.
Mr Dimas's comments came as the Australian Senate voted against a proposal to set up a carbon trading system, dealing a defeat to Kevin Rudd, the prime minister. The bill would have reduced greenhouse gas emissions by between 5 per cent and 15 per cent from 2000 levels by 2020.
But the biggest challenge to the success of Copenhagen came quietly last week, in the form of reports from European diplomats that China, India, Brazil and South Africa had rejected long-term global targets for reducing emissions in a draft text.
Diplomats said the major developing states opposed proposals that global emissions would peak by 2020 and halve by 2050.
A top Indian delegate said on Friday that governments in developing countries have been resisting international supervision of their climate mitigation strategies.
The developing states want industrialised countries to continue to bear the burden of cuts over the next four decades, Alf Wills, the South African climate change negotiator, told Reuters.
"We cannot agree to the 50/50 [halving emissions by 2050] because it implies that - the remaining [cuts] must be done by developing countries," Mr Wills said.
* with agencies
cstanton@thenational.ae
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
About Housecall
Date started: July 2020
Founders: Omar and Humaid Alzaabi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech
# of staff: 10
Funding to date: Self-funded
The squad traveling to Brazil:
Faisal Al Ketbi, Ibrahim Al Hosani, Khalfan Humaid Balhol, Khalifa Saeed Al Suwaidi, Mubarak Basharhil, Obaid Salem Al Nuaimi, Saeed Juma Al Mazrouei, Saoud Abdulla Al Hammadi, Taleb Al Kirbi, Yahia Mansour Al Hammadi, Zayed Al Kaabi, Zayed Saif Al Mansoori, Saaid Haj Hamdou, Hamad Saeed Al Nuaimi. Coaches Roberto Lima and Alex Paz.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Spider-Man%202
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Opening weekend Premier League fixtures
Weekend of August 10-13
Arsenal v Manchester City
Bournemouth v Cardiff City
Fulham v Crystal Palace
Huddersfield Town v Chelsea
Liverpool v West Ham United
Manchester United v Leicester City
Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur
Southampton v Burnley
Watford v Brighton & Hove Albion
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
The%20US%20Congress%2C%20explained
%3Cp%3E-%20US%20Congress%20is%20divided%20into%20two%20chambers%3A%20the%20House%20of%20Representatives%20and%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20435%20members%20make%20up%20the%20House%2C%20and%20100%20in%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20A%20party%20needs%20control%20of%20218%20seats%20to%20have%20a%20majority%20in%20the%20House%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20In%20the%20Senate%2C%20a%20party%20needs%20to%20hold%2051%20seats%20for%20control%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E-%20In%20the%20event%20of%20a%2050-50%20split%2C%20the%20vice%20president's%20party%20retains%20power%20in%20the%20Senate%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Cairo Statement
1: Commit to countering all types of terrorism and extremism in all their manifestations
2: Denounce violence and the rhetoric of hatred
3: Adhere to the full compliance with the Riyadh accord of 2014 and the subsequent meeting and executive procedures approved in 2014 by the GCC
4: Comply with all recommendations of the Summit between the US and Muslim countries held in May 2017 in Saudi Arabia.
5: Refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries and of supporting rogue entities.
6: Carry out the responsibility of all the countries with the international community to counter all manifestations of extremism and terrorism that threaten international peace and security
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Listen to Extra Time
The Baghdad Clock
Shahad Al Rawi, Oneworld
Secret Nation: The Hidden Armenians of Turkey
Avedis Hadjian, (IB Tauris)
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Titan Sports Academy:
Programmes: Judo, wrestling, kick-boxing, muay thai, taekwondo and various summer camps
Location: Inside Abu Dhabi City Golf Club, Al Mushrif, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Telephone: 971 50 220 0326
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.5-litre supercharged V6
Power: 416hp at 7,000rpm
Torque: 410Nm at 3,500rpm
Transmission: 6-speed manual
Fuel consumption: 10.2 l/100km
Price: Dh375,000
On sale: now
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%201.8-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C200rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20320Nm%20from%201%2C800-5%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeven-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.7L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh111%2C195%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Founders: Abdulmajeed Alsukhan, Turki Bin Zarah and Abdulmohsen Albabtain.
Based: Riyadh
Offices: UAE, Vietnam and Germany
Founded: September, 2020
Number of employees: 70
Sector: FinTech, online payment solutions
Funding to date: $116m in two funding rounds
Investors: Checkout.com, Impact46, Vision Ventures, Wealth Well, Seedra, Khwarizmi, Hala Ventures, Nama Ventures and family offices
BMW%20M4%20Competition
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