China third-quarter growth better than expected



The world’s second-largest economy grew by 6.7 per cent in the three months ending in September compared with a year earlier, data showed on Wednesday. That was in line with the two previous quarters and better than some forecasters expected.

“Economic activity seems to be holding up reasonably well, with few signs that a renewed slowdown is just around the corner,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in a report.

Still, analysts cautioned growth is likely to slow next year because the latest strength is based in part on a surge in bank lending and real estate prices – both of which regulators see as a risk and are trying to restrain.

China’s economy has cooled steadily over the past six years as communist leaders try to steer it to more self-sustaining growth based on consumer spending instead of trade and investment.

An unexpectedly sharp slowdown over the past two years prompted fears of politically dangerous job losses. Beijing launched mini-stimulus measures with higher spending on construction of highways and other public works.

Exports have contracted this year due to weak global demand but retail sales, especially e-commerce, are growing faster than the overall economy.

Retail sales rose 10.4 per cent in the first three quarters, up 0.1 percentage point from the first half, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Growth in service industries overall, boosted by a surge in real estate sales, accelerated to 7.5 per cent from the previous quarter’s 7.8 per cent.

By contrast, exports shrank by 5.6 per cent in September from a year earlier.

“Third-quarter data signalled that economic growth has stabilised at a healthy pace, and that China’s transition from a high-speed, heavy industry-based economy to a moderately-fast consumer and services-based economy is well under way,” said Andy Rothman of Matthews Asia in a report.

“The challenges of completing this transition will result in gradually slower growth rates and increased volatility, but the risks of a hard landing are very low.”

State media have warned China’s economic outlook will be “L-shaped,” meaning the downturn should bottom out but growth will not rebound to the double-digit rates of the past decade.

Repeated infusions of credit to prop up growth since the 2008 global crisis has led to a rapid run-up in China’s debt to the equivalent of 250 per cent of GDP. That has prompted warnings the country could face a financial crisis if debt growth isn’t controlled.

The central bank’s measure of total credit showed growth in September edged up to 11.3 per cent compared with a year earlier, up from August’s 11.2 per cent rate.

“The recent recovery is ultimately on borrowed time given that it has been driven in large part by faster credit growth and a property market boom,” said Mr Evans-Pritchard. “As the boost from policy stimulus begins to wear off, probably at some point early next year, continued structural drags mean the economy is set to begin slowing again.”

* Associated Press

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German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

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QUALIFYING RESULTS

1. Max Verstappen, Netherlands, Red Bull Racing Honda, 1 minute, 35.246 seconds.
2. Valtteri Bottas, Finland, Mercedes, 1:35.271.
3. Lewis Hamilton, Great Britain, Mercedes, 1:35.332.
4. Lando Norris, Great Britain, McLaren Renault, 1:35.497.
5. Alexander Albon, Thailand, Red Bull Racing Honda, 1:35.571.
6. Carlos Sainz Jr, Spain, McLaren Renault, 1:35.815.
7. Daniil Kvyat, Russia, Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda, 1:35.963.
8. Lance Stroll, Canada, Racing Point BWT Mercedes, 1:36.046.
9. Charles Leclerc, Monaco, Ferrari, 1:36.065.
10. Pierre Gasly, France, Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda, 1:36.242.

Eliminated after second session

11. Esteban Ocon, France, Renault, 1:36.359.
12. Daniel Ricciardo, Australia, Renault, 1:36.406.
13. Sebastian Vettel, Germany, Ferrari, 1:36.631.
14. Antonio Giovinazzi, Italy, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:38.248.

Eliminated after first session

15. Antonio Giovinazzi, Italy, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:37.075.
16. Kimi Raikkonen, Finland, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:37.555.
17. Kevin Magnussen, Denmark, Haas Ferrari, 1:37.863.
18. George Russell, Great Britain, Williams Mercedes, 1:38.045.
19. Pietro Fittipaldi, Brazil, Haas Ferrari, 1:38.173.
20. Nicholas Latifi, Canada, Williams Mercedes, 1:38.443.

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A foster couple or family must:

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