China stays on guard against protectionist action from Trump

Beijing // The US president Donald Trump’s inaugural speech has concerned Chinese officials that his past threats about imposing restrictions on Chinese business was not merely election rhetoric and he might actually implement them.

Chinese state media claims he is using political issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea as “bargaining chips” to extract business advantages for the United States from authorities in Beijing.

“If you listen to the speech, it’s clear that China and Mexico are his biggest targets. You can expect something to happen. It’s no time for Beijing to relax,” Christopher Balding, a professor of finance at the HSBC School of Business at Peking University in Shenzhen, tells The National.

The new president did not specifically name China or reiterate his earlier statements that China was stealing American jobs and that he would impose a 45 per cent tax on Chinese goods. But he came very close.

“For many decades, we’ve enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry …,” Mr Trump said in Washington at the weekend.

“Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs will be made to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs.”

In response, the Chinese premier Li Keqiang announced China could soon ease restrictions on its own version of the US “green card” fearing that Mr Trump’s strategy would persuade highly skilled Americans it was time to pull out of China. Mr Li’s government will “relax market access, attract more foreign investment and learn advanced technologies and management”, Mr Li says. The move would make it easier for foreigners to apply for permanent residency in an attempt to attract more talented workers to the country, the authorities said.

The government is considering revising the regulations to apply for permanent residency with “more flexible and pragmatic application standards”, the Organisation Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party said.

China’s president Xi Jinping, who spoke at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland a few days before Mr Trump’s inaugural speech, underlined the dangers of following protectionist policies that had been promised by Mr Trump during election campaigning. Mr Xi candidly discussed the dangers of a trade war for all countries but displayed no sign of nervousness about Mr Trump’s threats to impose crippling restrictions on Chinese exports and investments.

“Pursuing protectionism is like locking oneself in a dark room. Wind and rain may be kept outside, but so is light and air,” Mr Xi said. Becoming the first Chinese president to address the WEF, he emphasised the value of doing business with China, which forecasts imports valued at US$8 trillion, and investments of $750 billion across the world, in the next five years.

Some economists feel Beijing need not be too worried about the “Trump effect”.

“China is a very big economy and it can handle the new challenges if Trump goes ahead and implements what he has been talking about,” says Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese Studies and the director of the Lau China Institute at King’s College in London. “Xi Jinping clarified China’s position that all countries would be hurt by a trade war.

“China would prefer to wait and watch what kind of actions Trump would take after he becomes president. It would then decide on soft or hard responses,” Prof Brown says.

In recent days, Beijing has announced new measures to try to convince foreign investors that China offers a better environment for investments than they may find elsewhere. The state council, which is the Chinese cabinet, has relaxed entry controls for overseas banks, securities brokerages and futures and insurance companies. It has also lifted restrictions in rail transport equipment manufacturing, motorcycle production, fuel ethanol, and oil and fat processing.

China will support foreign companies setting up research and development centres and strengthen cooperation with domestic peers, and will allow them to join national science and technology programmes, the state council says.

Chinese social media reacted in very different ways to Mr Trump’s first speech as president, with some saying he poses a serious threat and others rejecting his statements as bluff and bluster.

A more extreme subject hotly debated on Weibo, a Chinese platform similar to Twitter, is whether Mr Trump will usher in an American version of the Chinese “cultural revolution” that saw wide ranging atrocities and suppression of the educated elite during a bout of intense populism from 1966 to 1976, unleashed under Mao Zedong, then the chairman of the Communist Party of China.

Writing on Weibo, Dai Xu, a former Chinese air force colonel, commented that responding with words is not enough. “What we should do right now is to get ourselves prepared and start thinking about how to respond [to Trump]. Action is the most resonant language.”

The official Xinhua news agency tried to placate the new American leader after his inauguration saying: “As a renowned and savvy businessman, the new leader in Washington knows more than anyone else the merits of a sound China-US partnership. Therefore, he surely knows that investment from Chinese businesses benefits the US economy and could help create more jobs for the country.” Xinhua tried to underline China’s usefulness to Washington saying it is best suited to persuade North Korea to shed its nuclear arms ambitions. It also said Chinese companies can be a source of job generation in the US.

The China Daily newspaper produced a more positive spin saying that suppression of Chinese exports by the US would force local companies to upgrade their production systems and ultimately benefit them.

“Officials with China’s National Development and Reform Commission [the main economic planning agency in China] may thank the Trump administration if it can help China offload obsolete, unsustainable industrial capacity quicker,” the paper said.

Mr Xi’s assurances to US entities in China seem borne out in a 2017 Business Climate Survey released by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in China last week. About 72 per cent of US companies surveyed in China feel positive that a strong bilateral relationship between the US and China is critical for business. In fact, 69 per cent say they are planning new investment in China this year, rebounding slightly from last year’s 68 per cent, which was the lowest level since the global economic crisis of 2008.

“The country remains an important market for most multinationals, but we are seeing a significant shift in what foreign businesses are prioritising,” says Stephen Shih, a partner at management consultancy Bain, which worked with AmCham to compile the survey. “Innovation in China and operational efficiency will need to be at the top of the agenda for companies in 2017. More companies will also be re-evaluating the role of China in their global portfolio of markets.”

Still, Mr Trump, who has taken US car companies to task over their production facilities in Mexico, is expected to make it difficult for American firms to invest heavily in countries such as China.

Some US companies are worried that his actions will result in a US-China trade war, significantly affecting their business. One third of the respondents in the AmCham survey expressed fears that the relationship would deteriorate, although 50 per cent felt there will be no changes.

“Beijing has said if Trump cracks down, they will go after foreign firms. So that’s got to be a concern. They are tapering their investment plans, but I think they’re cautiously optimistic that a lot of these problems will get worked out in the future,” Prof Balding says.

Indeed, it seems the mood of US companies is actually increasingly optimistic. The AmCham survey showed that 58 per cent of US companies in China expect their 2016 revenue will have increase, a figure up from 55 per cent the previous year. Similarly, the 68 per cent of companies that said their China operations were profitable last year was up from 64 per cent in 2015.

Whether they remain similarly upbeat in a few months time remains to be seen.

business@thenational.ae

Follow The National's Business section on Twitter

Abu Dhabi racecard

5pm: Maiden (Purebred Arabians); Dh80,000; 1,400m.
5.30pm: Maiden (PA); Dh80,00; 1,400m.
6pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (PA); Group 3; Dh500,000; 1,600m.
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (Thoroughbred); Listed; Dh380,000; 1,600m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup for Private Owners Handicap (PA); Dh70,000; 1,400m.
7.30pm: Handicap (PA); Dh80,000; 1,600m

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Company%20Profile

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Raha%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kuwait%2FSaudi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tech%20Logistics%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2414%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Soor%20Capital%2C%20eWTP%20Arabia%20Capital%2C%20Aujan%20Enterprises%2C%20Nox%20Management%2C%20Cedar%20Mundi%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20166%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
not be younger than 25 years old
not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

Killing of Qassem Suleimani

National Editorial: Suleimani has been killed, now we must de-escalate

Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead

Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble

Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks

Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground

Simon Waldman: Cautious Israel keeping a low profile

Company: Instabug

Founded: 2013

Based: Egypt, Cairo

Sector: IT

Employees: 100

Stage: Series A

Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors

FROM%20THE%20ASHES

%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Specs

Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric

Range: Up to 610km

Power: 905hp

Torque: 985Nm

Price: From Dh439,000

Available: Now

Five famous companies founded by teens

There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:

Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.

FIGHT%20CARD

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ELightweight%2010%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBader%20Samreen%20(8-0-0)%20v%20Jose%20Paez%20Gonzales%20(16-2-2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESuper%20flyweight%2010%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3ESultan%20Al%20Nuaimi%20(9-0-0)%20v%20Jemsi%20Kibazange%20(18-6-2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECruiseweight%208%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMohammed%20Bekdash%20(25-0-0)%20v%20Musa%20N%E2%80%99tege%20(8-4-0)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESuper%20featherweight%208%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBishara%20Sabbar%20(6-0-0)%20v%20Mohammed%20Azahar%20(8-5-1)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%206%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMarwan%20Mohamad%20Madboly%20(2-0-0)%20v%20Sheldon%20Schultz%20(4-4-0)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EHeavyweight%204%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EYoussef%20Karrar%20(1-0-0)%20v%20Muhammad%20Muzeei%20(0-0-0)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWelterweight%206%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBenyamin%20Moradzadeh%20(0-0-0)%20v%20Rohit%20Chaudhary%20(4-0-2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFeatherweight%204%20rounds%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EYousuf%20Ali%20(2-0-0)%20(win-loss-draw)%20v%20Alex%20Semugenyi%20(0-1-0)%0D%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

The%20Afghan%20connection

%3Cp%3EThe%20influx%20of%20talented%20young%20Afghan%20players%20to%20UAE%20cricket%20could%20have%20a%20big%20impact%20on%20the%20fortunes%20of%20both%20countries.%20Here%20are%20three%20Emirates-based%20players%20to%20watch%20out%20for.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EHassan%20Khan%20Eisakhil%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMohammed%20Nabi%20is%20still%20proving%20his%20worth%20at%20the%20top%20level%20but%20there%20is%20another%20reason%20he%20is%20raging%20against%20the%20idea%20of%20retirement.%20If%20the%20allrounder%20hangs%20on%20a%20little%20bit%20longer%2C%20he%20might%20be%20able%20to%20play%20in%20the%20same%20team%20as%20his%20son%2C%20Hassan%20Khan.%20The%20family%20live%20in%20Ajman%20and%20train%20in%20Sharjah.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMasood%20Gurbaz%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20opening%20batter%2C%20who%20trains%20at%20Sharjah%20Cricket%20Academy%2C%20is%20another%20player%20who%20is%20a%20part%20of%20a%20famous%20family.%20His%20brother%2C%20Rahmanullah%2C%20was%20an%20IPL%20winner%20with%20Kolkata%20Knight%20Riders%2C%20and%20opens%20the%20batting%20with%20distinction%20for%20Afghanistan.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOmid%20Rahman%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20fast%20bowler%20became%20a%20pioneer%20earlier%20this%20year%20when%20he%20became%20the%20first%20Afghan%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE.%20He%20showed%20great%20promise%20in%20doing%20so%2C%20too%2C%20playing%20a%20key%20role%20in%20the%20senior%20team%E2%80%99s%20qualification%20for%20the%20Asia%20Cup%20in%20Muscat%20recently.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

All%20The%20Light%20We%20Cannot%20See%20

%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECreator%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESteven%20Knight%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EMark%20Ruffalo%2C%20Hugh%20Laurie%2C%20Aria%20Mia%20Loberti%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

COMPANY PROFILE

Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.

PROFILE OF HALAN

Started: November 2017

Founders: Mounir Nakhla, Ahmed Mohsen and Mohamed Aboulnaga

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: transport and logistics

Size: 150 employees

Investment: approximately $8 million

Investors include: Singapore’s Battery Road Digital Holdings, Egypt’s Algebra Ventures, Uber co-founder and former CTO Oscar Salazar

The specs

Engine: 3.0-litre 6-cyl turbo

Power: 374hp at 5,500-6,500rpm

Torque: 500Nm from 1,900-5,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 8.5L/100km

Price: from Dh285,000

On sale: from January 2022

Company profile

Date started: 2015

Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki

Based: Dubai

Sector: Online grocery delivery

Staff: 200

Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cyl turbo

Power: 194hp at 5,600rpm

Torque: 275Nm from 2,000-4,000rpm

Transmission: 6-speed auto

Price: from Dh155,000

On sale: now

The Kingfisher Secret
Anonymous, Penguin Books

Election pledges on migration

CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"

SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"

Kanguva

Director: Siva

Stars: Suriya, Bobby Deol, Disha Patani, Yogi Babu, Redin Kingsley

Rating: 2/5

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young