China celebrated its New Year on Friday to herald the Year of the Dog with the country's stock market once again showing its pedigree.
After five years in the doldrums China has been one of the world's best-performing economies over the past 12 months.
Its recovery has helped to drive growth across the region, with the Asia-Pacific investment sector rising an impressive 32.04 per cent last year, according to MSCI.
This put it comfortably ahead of the next best performer, Europe, which grew 26.24 per cent, and also the US at 21.19 per cent and the UK at 11.71 per cent in what was a bumper year overall.
Stock markets have been volatile so far in 2018 but many experts say that recent falls could be a buying opportunity for the booming Asia-Pacific region. Should you set a course for the Pacific rim?
Go East: Definitions vary, but generally speakingAsia-Pacific centres around the Western Pacific Ocean, to include much of East Asia, South Asia, South East Asia, and Oceania (Melanesia, Micronesia, Polynesia and Australasia).
MSCI divided the region into five developed economies: Australia; Hong Kong; Japan; New Zealand; and Singapore, and nine emerging ones: China; India; Indonesia; South Korea; Malaysia; Pakistan; the Philippines; Taiwan; and Thailand.
Vijay Valecha, chief market analyst at Century Financial Brokers in Dubai, says other countries are sometimes included, such as Vietnam and even Canada. “Whichever way you look it, Asia-Pacific boomed last year, with China’s stock market rising 52.5 per cent, Hong Kong up 30.56 per cent and India up 30.49 per cent."
He says their economies are supported by “brilliant” financial regulators. “The Monetary Authority of Singapore, Reserve Bank of India, Bank Negara Malaysia, Bank Indonesia and others have driven growth and development at a large scale. From fintech to retail to logistics, almost every sector has seen a boost, driving overall economic growth.”
This year opened with a market correction as a wave of nerves swept across every global stock market, not just Asia-Pacific.
Investors fear inflation is set to make a comeback, which will force central banks to hike interest rates to keep a lid on prices, and bring the era of cheap money to a close.
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Investors might want to watch their dollar weight
Be warned: cryptocurrency investing will undoubtedly be hair-raising
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However, Mr Valecha says that is actually a positive sign, as inflation is rising due to stronger economic growth, falling unemployment and increasing wages. "The trigger for the correction was a strong US labour, report which showed jobless claims falling to a 45-year low, creating fears that US Fed will be hiking rates at a faster pace, while European economic growth has been revised upwards to 2.3 per cent for 2018.”
He says recent market volatility will continue but a full-blown crash requires a global recession. “All recent economic data suggests the opposite, that global growth will remain strong this year and next, boosting Asia-Pacific and emerging markets generally.”
So is now the right time to tilt your portfolio to Asia-Pacific? Market performance is highly cyclical and buying last year's top performer is always a dangerous temptation but Mr Valecha is undaunted, saying that Asia-Pacific has momentum on its side. “Growing investor and business confidence looks set to trigger a sustainable circle, as higher investment inflows release pent-up domestic demand and trigger domestic growth, which should further boost confidence. This loop is already in action.”
His current preferred destination is Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which offers exposure to both local and mainland Chinese shares.
It is currently trading at an undemanding valuation of 11.51 times earnings, below the 15 figure that is typically thought to reflect fair value and the expensive forward valuation of 23 on the US S&P 500, suggesting opportunities remain. “Better still, earnings per share on the Hang Seng are forecast to grow almost 20 per cent over the next year,” Mr Valecha adds.
He says the best way for most ordinary people to invest in the market is via a low-cost exchange traded fund (ETF).
You can choose from ETFs that track Asia-Pacific and emerging markets generally, or individual countries, sectors and asset classes.
His preferred ETFs include Vanguard FTSE Pacific (VPL), which focuses on developed countries with more than half of the fund invested in Japan, and smaller weightings in Australia, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore.
The fund is up 20.66 per cent over the past year, according to Bloomberg, although a sign of the sector's prior volatility is that it has returned just 8.24 per cent over five years.
Mr Valecha also recommends iShares Core MSCI Pacific (IPAC), which again has hefty Japan exposure at 68 per cent of the fund, alongside Australia, Hong Kong and Singapore. It has returned 19.4 per cent over one year, although just 9.49 per cent over three years.
Charges on these two funds are a rock bottom 0.1 per cent, which reduces the drag on performance.
For those happy to take on more risk in the hope of generating a higher return, he tips SPDR S&P Emerging Asia Pacific (GMF), which has greater exposure to emerging Asian countries such as China and India, rather than Japan, and returned a juicy 33.27 per cent in the past 12 months. Fund charges are slightly higher at 0.49 per cent a year.
Gordon Robertson, director of the Me Group of businesses in Dubai, says although investors may be nervous about investing money in Asia-Pacific amid current volatility, this looks more like a short-term correction than a full-blown crash.
Nobody can predict where markets will go next but as Asia-Pacific valuations are far lower than the US, the region looks tempting today, he says. “Asia-Pacific is trading at a forward valuation of 14 times earnings, which is inexpensive, and I would be trying to add or establish positions during this correction. Rather than investing all your money at once you could pay in smaller sums over, say, a three-month period, to spread your risk slightly.”
Mr Robertson says Japan has improving fundamentals and should deliver stable growth as long as the world economy grows. “Domestic consumption is improving but exports are what really matters. A strong Japan will have a positive impact on the overall returns in Asia Pacific.”
He recommends that private investors buy and hold low-cost ETFs for the long term and echoes Mr Valecha in tipping Vanguard FTSE Pacific for those who want exposure to Japan, and SPDR S&P Emerging Asia Pacific ETFs targeting emerging countries such as China and India.
Your decision depends on personal factors such as where your portfolio is already invested, which markets you expect to perform best and your attitude to risk.
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Twelve ETFs to suit every investment portfolio
Emerging markets race ahead after a decade in the doldrums
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Tom Anderson, senior investment manager at wealth advisors Killik & Co, who has clients in Dubai, says despite the recent fuss over a supposed meltdown, global markets have only fallen around 7.5 per cent, which follows almost nine years of bull market, so no need to panic. "It feels uncomfortable after a decade of relentlessly positive markets, but is unremarkable in historical terms.”
Mr Anderson says this is, nonetheless, an opportunity to buy into stock markets at a reduced price, although you must also brace yourself for further volatility. "You should invest in Asia-Pacific as part of a balanced portfolio, focusing on quality economies."
He tips Stewart Asia Pacific Leaders, an actively managed mutual fund which leans towards India, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.
It is relatively defensive, growing just 5 per cent over the past year, but it has delivered a total return of 54 per cent over five years, , according to figures from Trustnet.com. This is an impressive performance in turbulent times. It could, therefore, offer diversity and balance to the ETFs mentioned in this article.
China: Year of the Dog: All eyes are on China as the country reminds us that it is still the region's top player, although it cannot escape recent market uncertainty.
Mark Taylor, chief customer officer at stockbroker Selftrade, owned by Equiniti, says a sell-off was always likely after last year's storming performance. “We saw significant sell-offs of the db x-trackers MSCI China Index ETF throughout January, so it seems investors anticipated this wobble.”
Mr Taylor says China faces several major challenges. “It has a significant annual budget deficit and its borrowings are rising. There is a considerable amount of debt in the government and private sector, and bad loans could lead to a volatile 2018.”
However, he says it is also a huge long-term opportunity, as the country’s burgeoning emerging middle-class consumer base flexes its financial muscles and spending power, and he tips the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VFEM), which is one third invested in China, alongside other emerging markets including Taiwan, Brazil, India, South Africa, Thailand and Russia.
Jason Hollands, managing director at wealth advisers Tilney Investment Management Services, says China is difficult to resist for long-term investors who can withstand short-term volatility, but warns of demographics problems. “The country is set to face a shortage of younger workers despite scrapping its controversial one child policy in 2016.”
Another problem is that many listed companies are controlled by the Chinese government and corporate governance is not up to developed-world standards, Mr Hollands adds. “Most investors should diversify their risk by purchasing a broader global emerging markets fund, rather than one that invests purely in China.”
Mr Hollands tips Asian Alpha Plus, which has 30 per cent in Chinese companies and 20 per cent in Hong Kong, plus exposure to other countries such as South Korea, India and Taiwan.”
The fund is up 22 per cent over the past year, and 72 per over five years, according to figures from Trustnet.
Mr Hollands also tips Fidelity Emerging Markets, which is around 23 per cent invested in China and 9 per cent in Hong Kong, plus South Africa, India, Russia and others. It is up 20 per cent over one year and 65 per cent over five years.
Ed Smith, head of asset allocation research, Rathbones, says despite debt concerns China should remain the largest Asian growth engine for the next 20 years, continuing to outstrip rivals such as India.
Mr Smith says China should benefit from continuing strong growth in the world economy, as President Xi Jinping presses ahead on economic reforms. “Global economic and financial conditions will ensure China and emerging market equities have another good year.”
Every dog has its day, they say, and China is no exception.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
UAE cricketers abroad
Sid Jhurani is not the first cricketer from the UAE to go to the UK to try his luck.
Rameez Shahzad Played alongside Ben Stokes and Liam Plunkett in Durham while he was studying there. He also played club cricket as an overseas professional, but his time in the UK stunted his UAE career. The batsman went a decade without playing for the national team.
Yodhin Punja The seam bowler was named in the UAE’s extended World Cup squad in 2015 despite being just 15 at the time. He made his senior UAE debut aged 16, and subsequently took up a scholarship at Claremont High School in the south of England.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
From Zero
Artist: Linkin Park
Label: Warner Records
Number of tracks: 11
Rating: 4/5
Water waste
In the UAE’s arid climate, small shrubs, bushes and flower beds usually require about six litres of water per square metre, daily. That increases to 12 litres per square metre a day for small trees, and 300 litres for palm trees.
Horticulturists suggest the best time for watering is before 8am or after 6pm, when water won't be dried up by the sun.
A global report published by the Water Resources Institute in August, ranked the UAE 10th out of 164 nations where water supplies are most stretched.
The Emirates is the world’s third largest per capita water consumer after the US and Canada.
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
Kanye%20West
%3Cp%3EYe%20%E2%80%94%20the%20rapper%20formerly%20known%20as%20Kanye%20West%20%E2%80%94%20has%20seen%20his%20net%20worth%20fall%20to%20%24400%20million%20in%20recent%20weeks.%20That%E2%80%99s%20a%20precipitous%20drop%20from%20Bloomberg%E2%80%99s%20estimates%20of%20%246.8%20billion%20at%20the%20end%20of%202021.%3Cbr%3EYe%E2%80%99s%20wealth%20plunged%20after%20business%20partners%2C%20including%20Adidas%2C%20severed%20ties%20with%20him%20on%20the%20back%20of%20anti-Semitic%20remarks%20earlier%20this%20year.%3Cbr%3EWest%E2%80%99s%20present%20net%20worth%20derives%20from%20cash%2C%20his%20music%2C%20real%20estate%20and%20a%20stake%20in%20former%20wife%20Kim%20Kardashian%E2%80%99s%20shapewear%20firm%2C%20Skims.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
THE%C2%A0SPECS
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
FIXTURES
All games 6pm UAE on Sunday:
Arsenal v Watford
Burnley v Brighton
Chelsea v Wolves
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Everton v Bournemouth
Leicester v Man United
Man City v Norwich
Newcastle v Liverpool
Southampton v Sheffield United
West Ham v Aston Villa
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
liverpool youngsters
Ki-Jana Hoever
The only one of this squad to have scored for Liverpool, the versatile Dutchman impressed on his debut at Wolves in January. He can play right-back, centre-back or in midfield.
Herbie Kane
Not the most prominent H Kane in English football but a 21-year-old Bristolian who had a fine season on loan at Doncaster last year. He is an all-action midfielder.
Luis Longstaff
Signed from Newcastle but no relation to United’s brothers Sean and Matty, Luis is a winger. An England Under-16 international, he helped Liverpool win the FA Youth Cup last season.
Yasser Larouci
An 18-year-old Algerian-born winger who can also play as a left-back, Larouci did well on Liverpool’s pre-season tour until an awful tackle by a Sevilla player injured him.
Adam Lewis
Steven Gerrard is a fan of his fellow Scouser, who has been on Liverpool’s books since he was in the Under-6s, Lewis was a midfielder, but has been converted into a left-back.
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Asayel camels - sleek, short-haired hound-like racers
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The Greatest Royal Rumble card as it stands
50-man Royal Rumble - names entered so far include Braun Strowman, Daniel Bryan, Kurt Angle, Big Show, Kane, Chris Jericho, The New Day and Elias
Universal Championship Brock Lesnar (champion) v Roman Reigns in a steel cage match
WWE World Heavyweight Championship AJ Styles (champion) v Shinsuke Nakamura
Intercontinental Championship Seth Rollins (champion) v The Miz v Finn Balor v Samoa Joe
United States Championship Jeff Hardy (champion) v Jinder Mahal
SmackDown Tag Team Championship The Bludgeon Brothers (champions) v The Usos
Raw Tag Team Championship (currently vacant) Cesaro and Sheamus v Matt Hardy and Bray Wyatt
Casket match The Undertaker v Chris Jericho
Singles match John Cena v Triple H
Cruiserweight Championship Cedric Alexander v tba
Kill%20
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Essentials
The flights
Etihad and Emirates fly direct from the UAE to Delhi from about Dh950 return including taxes.
The hotels
Double rooms at Tijara Fort-Palace cost from 6,670 rupees (Dh377), including breakfast.
Doubles at Fort Bishangarh cost from 29,030 rupees (Dh1,641), including breakfast. Doubles at Narendra Bhawan cost from 15,360 rupees (Dh869). Doubles at Chanoud Garh cost from 19,840 rupees (Dh1,122), full board. Doubles at Fort Begu cost from 10,000 rupees (Dh565), including breakfast.
The tours
Amar Grover travelled with Wild Frontiers. A tailor-made, nine-day itinerary via New Delhi, with one night in Tijara and two nights in each of the remaining properties, including car/driver, costs from £1,445 (Dh6,968) per person.
Secret Nation: The Hidden Armenians of Turkey
Avedis Hadjian, (IB Tauris)
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
IPL 2018 FINAL
Sunrisers Hyderabad 178-6 (20 ovs)
Chennai Super Kings 181-2 (18.3 ovs)
Chennai win by eight wickets
PRISCILLA
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Sofia%20Coppola%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Cailee%20Spaeny%2C%20Jacob%20Elordi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The biog
Favourite Emirati dish: Fish machboos
Favourite spice: Cumin
Family: mother, three sisters, three brothers and a two-year-old daughter
Mina Cup winners
Under 12 – Minerva Academy
Under 14 – Unam Pumas
Under 16 – Fursan Hispania
Under 18 – Madenat
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
The past winners
2009 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2010 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2011 - Lewis Hamilton (McLaren)
2012 - Kimi Raikkonen (Lotus)
2013 - Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull)
2014 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2015 - Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)
2016 - Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017 - Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes)
