The sudden bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has far more serious implications for the world's financial system, with possible consequences to the Gulf, than did the demise of Bear Stearns. The Lehman collapse has changed the game of how regulators now deal with financial institutions, and potential bailouts are no longer an option.
The accelerated momentum of securitisation of mortgage loans in 2005 caused the subprime crisis, not the low interest rates when the Fed reduced Fed funds to 1 per cent. The sale of securities from credit pools had never reached such a level before. When US investment banks discovered the appetite of foreign institutions, commercial banks sped up their loans to uninformed borrowers to meet the soaring investor demand.
Banks transferred to their trading books what cost too much on their credit books (8 per cent of their assets in equity) even though the so-called "securities" were for the most part illiquid private placements. This trend to structure credit in the cheapest way possible by avoiding capital requirements was blatant regulatory arbitrage on a massive scale. But this was caused by the central banks themselves who insisted on a higher and costly capitalisation on banks, who in turn tried to minimise such costs by moving assets off-balance sheet.
Second, the investor demand for this structured paper was not triggered by the "excess liquidity" created in the low interest rates since 2001, but it instead represented the most massive transfer of wealth ever recorded in history. Two billion individuals moved in a matter of only a few years from a state-controlled economy to semi-capitalist private systems, and the productivity gains across both western economies and emerging market economies unleashed a virtual flood of financial wealth and savings, with the world capital stock nearly trebling from US$60 trillion (Dh220.4trn) to $160trn. One only has to observe these phenomena in the Gulf over the past few years to see the effect on new wealth creation for many classes of citizens.
These same citizens must now be wondering what happens next and the news is not looking good, given the inter-linkages of counter obligations among financial institutions. It will take months to unwind Lehman's complex deals and obligations with other banks, and given the company's high-profile presence in the Gulf, it would be a brave soul to state that Gulf institutions will not be affected this time around. Tighter credit and higher margins will be the order of the day as banks seek quality clients, and investors, in turn, seek quality financial institutions whose numbers seem to diminish by the day.
Until the collapse of Lehman, the assumption had been that any financial institution operating at the centre of the international financial system, be it a commercial or investment bank, is simply too big and too interconnected to be allowed to fail or to be wound down quickly for fear of a systemic breakdown. This assumption has now been shaken.
This raises the issue of fiduciary risk. Two thirds of the capital flows today go through fiduciaries, those who act as managers, custodians, broker-dealers, administrators or trustees, while credit banks, the dominating power of finance until the 1980s, have become marginalised. The whole texture of finance shifted from a classic loan industry to one of securities trading, warehousing, arbitrage and valuation. Institutions don't lend cash anymore: they lend securities and exchange credit swaps and interest rates.
The shift was so sudden and reached so deeply in a structural sense that it heightened the fragility of the whole system. No wonder regulatory tools based on a credit model have proven to be so ineffective. As long as the industry was dominated by credit and an obligation to generate and protect the "results", one could reinforce the walls and limits of a regulated system. But when the industry is overtaken by institutions acting as fiduciaries rather than creditors, the obligation is only of the "means" (ie "best practice") not of the ends, or the result of their imprudence, so how do you effectively regulate that? What is worrying is that more and more Gulf institutions have been following the fiduciary route with traditional credit-related commercial banking taking a secondary role.
A move to enlarge the supervisory role of a central bank is likely to create an unprecedented concentration of powers with no corresponding real and effective means to intervene and contain market excesses save for "bailing out" creditors who make the asset bubbles possible. What's more, by guaranteeing impaired assets, central banks are exposed to capital losses, however over-collateralised the central bank is in its term lending through its new liquidity facilities. As the current crisis itself has shown, when all the financial institutions - rather than just one or two in trouble - face funding risks at the same time, there is not much value in the collateral you are holding unless you can hold it for a long, long time. This is what made Barclays decide to pull out of the Lehman rescue effort.
The Lehman collapse raises the question whether central banks could go under in the wake of their market intervention during a financial crisis. The Fed's total equity stands at $40 billion versus the $29bn needed to guarantee Bear Stearns alone, and this is without Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae support. A central bank can never go "broke" per se, of course, since a government will always replenish its capital base if the losses due occur. But that would also entail, in effect, printing money at a time when inflation is an issue. Concerning Lehman, the Fed has declined to pump in money to bail it out and some, including Alan Greenspan, are now calling for a new model of financial supervision that does not automatically bail out failed banks. Some have put forward drastic solutions given the potential capital adequacy problems of central banks to support a total collapse in the financial system.
One suggestion is that we need to limit the size of financial institutions. We should limit their size instead of facing the unavoidable option of having to save them. In short, once an institution grows too big, it should be split as AT&T once was in the late 1970s, and IT companies in this century. The argument was one of the social and economic needs to break a cartel, whereas today it is the size itself that becomes so unmanageable relative to the means of containing a systemic risk.
In both cases, the goal is to improve market efficiency. Should we move back to restore the strict division between commercial and investment banking and put an end to such a massive regulatory leakage? The answer may lie in the transition of the industry itself. The "old" Fed had regulatory responsibilities over a traditional commercial banking industry that is mostly a relic from textbooks, while the "new" Fed must consider the financial industry in whole. It is possible that the new regulatory fabric that arises will produce clear lines of responsibilities, dividing the new credit and fiduciary roles within the finance industry, as both sides are not subjected to the same performance obligations.
Given the explosion of commercial and investment banking in the Gulf, this issue will also be an important one for GCC regulators. The trend in the region was for larger banks and mergers to face the big boys from outside. This will cause the same dilemma for Gulf regulators in case one major financial institution faces trouble, but given the state of fragility of banking confidence due to recent fraud and scandals the likely option in the Gulf is to discreetly bail out. In the final analysis, let us hope that in trying to fix this current mess, the regulators do not lay the seeds of a future financial meltdown.
Dr Mohamed Ramady is a former banker and Visiting Associate Professor, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran, Saudi Arabia.
The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UAE - India ties
The UAE is India’s third-largest trade partner after the US and China
Annual bilateral trade between India and the UAE has crossed US$ 60 billion
The UAE is the fourth-largest exporter of crude oil for India
Indians comprise the largest community with 3.3 million residents in the UAE
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi first visited the UAE in August 2015
His visit on August 23-24 will be the third in four years
Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, visited India in February 2016
Sheikh Mohamed was the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations in January 2017
Modi will visit Bahrain on August 24-25
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Company%20profile%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EYodawy%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Egypt%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKarim%20Khashaba%2C%20Sherief%20El-Feky%20and%20Yasser%20AbdelGawad%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2424.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlgebra%20Ventures%2C%20Global%20Ventures%2C%20MEVP%20and%20Delivery%20Hero%20Ventures%2C%20among%20others%3Cstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20500%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Tori Amos
Native Invader
Decca
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
'Texas Chainsaw Massacre'
Rating: 1 out of 4
Running time: 81 minutes
Director: David Blue Garcia
Starring: Sarah Yarkin, Elsie Fisher, Mark Burnham
SRI LANKS ODI SQUAD
Perera (capt), Mendis, Gunathilaka, de Silva, Nissanka, Shanaka, Bandara, Hasaranga, Udana, Dananjaya, Dickwella, Chameera, Mendis, Fernando, Sandakan, Karunaratne, Fernando, Fernando.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Turning%20waste%20into%20fuel
%3Cp%3EAverage%20amount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20at%20DIC%20factory%20every%20month%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EApproximately%20106%2C000%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAmount%20of%20biofuel%20produced%20from%201%20litre%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%20%3Cstrong%3E920ml%20(92%25)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETime%20required%20for%20one%20full%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%20used%20cooking%20oil%20to%20biofuel%3A%20%3Cstrong%3EOne%20day%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EEnergy%20requirements%20for%20one%20cycle%20of%20production%20from%201%2C000%20litres%20of%20used%20cooking%20oil%3A%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E%E2%96%AA%20Electricity%20-%201.1904%20units%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Water-%2031%20litres%3Cbr%3E%E2%96%AA%20Diesel%20%E2%80%93%2026.275%20litres%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TALE OF THE TAPE
Manny Pacquiao
Record: 59-6-2 (38 KOs)
Age: 38
Weight: 146lbs
Height: 166cm
Reach: 170cm
Jeff Horn
Record: 16-0-1 (11 KOs)
Age: 29
Weight: 146.2lbs
Height: 175cm
Reach: 173cm
Results
6.30pm: Madjani Stakes Group 2 (PA) Dh97,500 (Dirt) 1,900m, Winner: RB Frynchh Dude, Pat Cosgrave (jockey), Helal Al Alawi (trainer)
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,400m, Winner: Mnasek, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Grand Dubai, Sandro Paiva, Ali Rashid Al Raihe.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m, Winner: Meqdam, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson.
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile Listed (TB) Dh132,500 (D) 1,600m, Winner: Thegreatcollection, Pat Cosgrave, Doug Watson.
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,900m, Winner: Sanad Libya, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (D) 1,400m, Winner: Madkhal, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Bombshell
Director: Jay Roach
Stars: Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron, Margot Robbie
Four out of five stars
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Qyubic
Started: October 2023
Founder: Namrata Raina
Based: Dubai
Sector: E-commerce
Current number of staff: 10
Investment stage: Pre-seed
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Pari
Produced by: Clean Slate Films (Anushka Sharma, Karnesh Sharma) & KriArj Entertainment
Director: Prosit Roy
Starring: Anushka Sharma, Parambrata Chattopadhyay, Ritabhari Chakraborty, Rajat Kapoor, Mansi Multani
Three stars
Fixtures
Wednesday
4.15pm: Japan v Spain (Group A)
5.30pm: UAE v Italy (Group A)
6.45pm: Russia v Mexico (Group B)
8pm: Iran v Egypt (Group B)