From left, Dmitry Medvedev, the president of Russia, Manmohan Singh, the prime minister of India, and Hu Jintao, the president of China, at the Brics summit in New Delhi, last week. Saurabh Das / AP Photo
From left, Dmitry Medvedev, the president of Russia, Manmohan Singh, the prime minister of India, and Hu Jintao, the president of China, at the Brics summit in New Delhi, last week. Saurabh Das / AP PShow more

Brics not quite as safe as houses



They are already forecast to overtake the developed world in economic terms in 2017.

Now the Brics nations, the fast-growing grouping of Brazil, Russia, India and China, with South Africa added as a strategic afterthought, seem to want political power to match their vast industrial and financial potential.

Last week in New Delhi, representatives of the five countries met in the Indian capital, the fourth "Brics summit" aimed at fostering greater policymaking co-ordination between them.

Some observers noticed an increasing unanimity of opinion among leaders of the new rich countries. They made it clear that the old, western-led way of doing things was in the past and the Brics blueprint was the future.

So, amid the standard summit rhetoric of calls for sharing of global power and the need to avoid a new war in the Gulf with Iran, there were also specific items of policy presenting a challenge to the West.

These included demands for a greater say by the Brics in the dealings of the IMF and World Bank, and a plan for the group to set up its own development bank.

The aftermath of the financial crisis has led to a stiffening of views in the organisation.

"The crisis started in the developed world, it will not be overcome through measures of austerity, fiscal consolidations and depreciation of labour, let alone through quantitative easing policies that can only be described as a monetary tsunami," said Dilma Rousseff, the president of Brazil,

The Brics obviously believe there is a new bipolarity in the world, between the fast-growing economies, mainly in the east, and the old economic regimes of Europe and North America, still struggling with the apparently interminable effects of financial crisis.

Where does the Middle East fit into this new world order? Opinions differ according to experts.

"None of the GCC countries on their own can become Bric nations; maybe if [they] became more unified they might be eligible for 'fast-growing' status. But Egypt and Iran are the only ones in the region with potential at the moment," said Jim O'Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist credited with inventing the Bric concept - although he did not include South Africa and still believes it should not be included in the taxonomy - on a recent trip to the Gulf.

Other economists view the Middle East as a crucial element. Stephen King, the head of global economics at HSBC, last year pointed out the region was going to figure as a central link in the new "southern silk road" that would see world trade flows increasing between China, India, the Middle East, Africa and south America. The Gulf would be a key link in this new pattern of commerce.

Mr O'Neill, while downplaying the importance of the region, still thought trading and financial hubs such as Dubai could be "capital cities" servicing the fast-growing parts of the world.

As the creator of the Bric idea, Mr O'Neill deserves to be listened to in any assessment of whether the new economic grouping will take on additional political powers.

"I think its tough for them to be a decisive political club," he said about the original members. "Two are democracies [he does not include Russia in that category after the disputed parliamentary and presidential elections], two are not; two are commodity producers, two are not; China is so big and so oriented towards domestic policy I don't think it's interested in the others that much."

There are also big discrepancies in basic economic criteria among the four original Bric countries. China's GDP is bigger than the three others combined; its growth rates for the past two decades have been better, often by several percentage points than the others.

When it comes to personal wealth and the power of domestic consumers, a different picture emerges. Mr O'Neill calculates per capita income in Brazil and Russia as about the same - US$15,000 (Dh55,000) per year, bigger than China's $5,000 to $6,000 and dwarfing India's $2,000.

One of the few factors that unifies them is not one they would wish to highlight: the fact that all their GDP growth forecasts have fallen in recent months. If South Africa is included, the range of disparities is significantly increased. It is below Saudi Arabia - the biggest economic power in the GDP tables - and well off the crucial 1 per cent of GDP Mr O'Neill regards as the criteria for members of the fast growth club.

The experience of the EU and the euro zone would appear to argue against creating political unity from such divergent economies. There are other divisions between them that militate against further political integration. Three of the Brics - Russia, China and India - have been involved in serious border disputes in recent years. In particular, Russia and China are competing over influence in central Asia, where much of the world's reserves of energy and essential commodities are located.

These conflicting interests showed through at the New Delhi summit. While their policymakers were able to unite around calls for some pretty far-reaching reforms at the IMF, they were unable to reach agreement on a possible rival candidate for the post of head of the World Bank.

So it's unlikely there will be a United States of Brics any time soon; and even less likely the Middle East will be a part of it.

But noisy calls for political influence by the group are further confirmation of the tilt in economic power from west to east - and the Middle East is at the fulcrum.

twitter: Follow our breaking business news and retweet to your followers. Follow us

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

World Cup warm up matches

May 24 Pakistan v Afghanistan, Bristol; Sri Lanka v South Africa, Cardiff

May 25 England v Australia, Southampton; India v New Zealand, The Oval

May 26 South Africa v West Indies, Bristol; Pakistan v Bangladesh, Cardiff

May 27 Australia v Sri Lanka, Southampton; England v Afghanistan, The Oval

May 28 West Indies v New Zealand, Bristol; Bangladesh v India, Cardiff

Dengue%20fever%20symptoms
%3Cul%3E%0A%3Cli%3EHigh%20fever%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EIntense%20pain%20behind%20your%20eyes%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESevere%20headache%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EMuscle%20and%20joint%20pains%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ENausea%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3EVomiting%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ESwollen%20glands%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3Cli%3ERash%3C%2Fli%3E%0A%3C%2Ful%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIf%20symptoms%20occur%2C%20they%20usually%20last%20for%20two-seven%20days%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

Tree of Hell

Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla

Director: Raed Zeno

Rating: 4/5

A%20Little%20to%20the%20Left
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMax%20Inferno%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PC%2C%20Mac%2C%20Nintendo%20Switch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GULF MEN'S LEAGUE

Pool A Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Exiles, Dubai Tigers 2

Pool B Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jebel Ali Dragons, Dubai Knights Eagles, Dubai Tigers

 

Opening fixtures

Thursday, December 5

6.40pm, Pitch 8, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Knights Eagles

7pm, Pitch 2, Jebel Ali Dragons v Dubai Tigers

7pm, Pitch 4, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Exiles

7pm, Pitch 5, Bahrain v Dubai Eagles 2

 

Recent winners

2018 Dubai Hurricanes

2017 Dubai Exiles

2016 Abu Dhabi Harlequins

2015 Abu Dhabi Harlequins

2014 Abu Dhabi Harlequins

A MINECRAFT MOVIE

Director: Jared Hess

Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa

Rating: 3/5

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

The specs

Price, base / as tested Dh12 million

Engine 8.0-litre quad-turbo, W16

Gearbox seven-speed dual clutch auto

Power 1479 @ 6,700rpm

Torque 1600Nm @ 2,000rpm 0-100kph: 2.6 seconds 0-200kph: 6.1 seconds

Top speed 420 kph (governed)

Fuel economy, combined 35.2L / 100km (est)

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204-cyl%20turbo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E190hp%20at%205%2C600rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E320Nm%20at%201%2C500-4%2C000rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.9L%2F100km%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh119%2C900%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

RESULTS

Lightweight (female)
Sara El Bakkali bt Anisha Kadka
Bantamweight
Mohammed Adil Al Debi bt Moaz Abdelgawad
Welterweight
Amir Boureslan bt Mahmoud Zanouny
Featherweight
Mohammed Al Katheeri bt Abrorbek Madaminbekov
Super featherweight
Ibrahem Bilal bt Emad Arafa
Middleweight
Ahmed Abdolaziz bt Imad Essassi
Bantamweight (female)
Ilham Bourakkadi bt Milena Martinou
Welterweight
Mohamed Mardi bt Noureddine El Agouti
Middleweight
Nabil Ouach bt Ymad Atrous
Welterweight
Nouredine Samir bt Marlon Ribeiro
Super welterweight
Brad Stanton bt Mohamed El Boukhari

MATCH INFO

Euro 2020 qualifier

Ukraine 2 (Yaremchuk 06', Yarmolenko 27')

Portugal 1 (Ronaldo 72' pen)

FIXTURES

All times UAE ( 4 GMT)

Saturday
Fiorentina v Torino (8pm)
Hellas Verona v Roma (10.45pm)

Sunday
Parma v Napoli (2.30pm)
Genoa v Crotone (5pm)
Sassuolo v Cagliari (8pm)
Juventus v Sampdoria (10.45pm)

Monday
AC Milan v Bologna (10.45om)

Playing September 30

Benevento v Inter Milan (8pm)
Udinese v Spezia (8pm)
Lazio v Atalanta (10.45pm)

Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

Gremio 1 Pachuca 0

Gremio Everton 95’

Nayanthara: Beyond The Fairy Tale

Starring: Nayanthara, Vignesh Shivan, Radhika Sarathkumar, Nagarjuna Akkineni

Director: Amith Krishnan

Rating: 3.5/5

Developer: Ubisoft Montreal / Ubisoft Toronto
Publisher: Ubisoft
Platforms: Playstation 4, Xbox One, Windows
​​​​​​​Release Date: April 10

UAE rugby in numbers

5 - Year sponsorship deal between Hesco and Jebel Ali Dragons

700 - Dubai Hurricanes had more than 700 playing members last season between their mini and youth, men's and women's teams

Dh600,000 - Dubai Exiles' budget for pitch and court hire next season, for their rugby, netball and cricket teams

Dh1.8m - Dubai Hurricanes' overall budget for next season

Dh2.8m - Dubai Exiles’ overall budget for next season

Results

Stage seven

1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates, in 3:20:24

2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers, at 1s

3. Pello Bilbao (ESP) Bahrain-Victorious, at 5s

General Classification

1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates, in 25:38:16

2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers, at 22s

3. Pello Bilbao (ESP) Bahrain-Victorious, at 48s