The economic implications of the continuing unrest in Egypt were put in sharp focus yesterday as top banking executives expressed concern about capital flight out of the country and Brent crude oil hit $100 a barrel.
Brent, the European benchmark, touched $100.05 a barrel in after-hours trading on London's ICE exchange, its highest level since September 2008.
With protests continuing for a seventh day and demonstrators warning of escalating trouble, bank chiefs braced for further repercussions from the political tension and international companies began evacuating employees.
"I believe that any kind of rioting or instability will definitely hamper and have a negative impact on the economy," said Yasser el Mallawany, the chief executive of EFG-Hermes.
Mr el Mallawany, the head of Egypt's largest investment bank, said his greatest concern was a large number of foreign investors pulling their money from the country.
"There will be flight of capital definitely driven by hot money," he said. "How much is left to be seen."
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Hisham Ezz al Arab, the chairman and managing director of Egypt's largest private financial institution Commercial International Bank (CIB), said last night the biggest threat to the economy would be if banks remained shut for another two weeks.
While CIB could last at least 30 days without opening, Mr al Arab said it could have stark impacts on the rest of the system.
"Honestly, I think this won't happen and that banks will open again on Sunday," he said. "But that is the biggest risk … Egypt is very important for the rest of the world.
"If Egypt goes into chaos, the entire Middle East will go into chaos and problems will spread to Europe. Then we will have bigger things to worry about than the stock markets being closed."
Four of CIB's 160 branches have been damaged during looting and protests. Mr al Arab said he was spending his afternoons and evenings on the streets of the upscale island of Zamalek in Cairo to help maintain security, along with a cohort of youths who had organised a temporary militia.
Meanwhile, traders have become increasingly concerned about oil supply constraints on shipping through the Suez Canal if the turmoil persists.
About 1 million barrels of Gulf crude pass through the canal daily en route to Europe and North America.
Canal officials said yesterday traffic was "normal" and AP Moller-Maersk, the world's biggest container-shipping company, said it was not diverting vessels away from the passage.
But the Port of Suez has been without customs or immigration officials for several days and the Port of Alexandria was closed yesterday as a result of a large protest, in developments that threaten to starve the country of imported goods.
In response to the upheaval, a number of regional and global companies with operations in Egypt closed offices out of concern for employees' safety.
DP World, the ports operator owned by Dubai World, said yesterday it had temporarily suspended operations at the Sokhna port in Egypt as a "precautionary measure" and that it was "closely monitoring the situation in Egypt".
The commercial property consultancy CB Richard Ellis is in talks with 20 companies about possibly moving their back-office operations from Egypt to the UAE, said Nicholas Maclean, the company's managing director for the Middle East.
"There is no panic or rush, we're just developing contingency plans," Mr Maclean said. "If they are looking to relocate people, the UAE is the logical choice."
The ratings agency Moody's Investors Service yesterday downgraded Egypt's government bonds from "stable" to "negative", saying the country was facing "deep-seated political and socio-economic challenges" including high unemployment, increased inflation and widespread poverty.
As the Cairo Stock Exchange remained closed, outside investors continued to speculate on whether other countries in the region would be seriously affected by the situation.
Last Friday and in early trading in the region yesterday, the prevailing sentiment was that Egypt's troubles presented increased risk. The spreads on credit default swaps rose sharply - even for wealthy bond issuers such as Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
The price for Abu Dhabi 5-year credit default swaps approached 120 basis points yesterday but settled back late in the day to about 105 basis points, only slightly higher from where they closed Friday.
"The market is very volatile," said one fixed-income trader in Dubai, who wished to remain anonymous. "But we're starting to see people who think maybe it does not make sense to lump the whole region together."
The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index rebounded from Sunday's steep losses with a gain of 1 per cent, while the Dubai Financial Market was also more stable, losing 0.5 per cent.
But on the ground in Cairo, the situation grows more stark. Cash machines throughout Egypt could run out within three to four days, said the chief executive of an Egyptian bank, who declined to be named.
"We need to open the banks soon so people can get their basic needs," he said. "But it's very risky transporting cash on the streets. The central bank was clear in their message to banks - they said they will not open the banks until the security is up to the acceptable level."
Some in Egypt are already having difficulty finding cash, while others reported problems finding food.
Mohamed Homdy, an Egyptian living in Abu Dhabi, said family members in Cairo had considered leaving but were intimidated by the chaos at the airport.
"The main issue is buying food - people are hoarding," Mr Homdy said, adding that shopkeepers were charging three to four times the normal price for bottles of water.
breagan@thenational.ae
bhope@thenational.ae
* with additional reporting by Rory Jones, Kevin Brass and Ivan Gale
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
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- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
England Test squad
Joe Root (captain), Moeen Ali, James Anderson, Jonny Bairstow (wicketkeeper), Stuart Broad, Jos Buttler, Alastair Cook, Sam Curran, Keaton Jennings, Dawid Malan, Jamie Porter, Adil Rashid, Ben Stokes.
Straightforward ways to reduce sugar in your family's diet
- Ban fruit juice and sodas
- Eat a hearty breakfast that contains fats and wholegrains, such as peanut butter on multigrain toast or full-fat plain yoghurt with whole fruit and nuts, to avoid the need for a 10am snack
- Give young children plain yoghurt with whole fruits mashed into it
- Reduce the number of cakes, biscuits and sweets. Reserve them for a treat
- Don’t eat dessert every day
- Make your own smoothies. Always use the whole fruit to maintain the benefit of its fibre content and don’t add any sweeteners
- Always go for natural whole foods over processed, packaged foods. Ask yourself would your grandmother have eaten it?
- Read food labels if you really do feel the need to buy processed food
- Eat everything in moderation
PROFILE OF CURE.FIT
Started: July 2016
Founders: Mukesh Bansal and Ankit Nagori
Based: Bangalore, India
Sector: Health & wellness
Size: 500 employees
Investment: $250 million
Investors: Accel, Oaktree Capital (US); Chiratae Ventures, Epiq Capital, Innoven Capital, Kalaari Capital, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Piramal Group’s Anand Piramal, Pratithi Investment Trust, Ratan Tata (India); and Unilever Ventures (Unilever’s global venture capital arm)
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 194hp at 5,600rpm
Torque: 275Nm from 2,000-4,000rpm
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Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The specs: 2018 Ducati SuperSport S
Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900
Engine: 937cc
Transmission: Six-speed gearbox
Power: 110hp @ 9,000rpm
Torque: 93Nm @ 6,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 5.9L / 100km
Company profile
Company name: Suraasa
Started: 2018
Founders: Rishabh Khanna, Ankit Khanna and Sahil Makker
Based: India, UAE and the UK
Industry: EdTech
Initial investment: More than $200,000 in seed funding
MATCH INFO
Azerbaijan 0
Wales 2 (Moore 10', Wilson 34')
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Blah
Started: 2018
Founder: Aliyah Al Abbar and Hend Al Marri
Based: Dubai
Industry: Technology and talent management
Initial investment: Dh20,000
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 40
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Duterte Harry: Fire and Fury in the Philippines
Jonathan Miller, Scribe Publications
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Tickets
Tickets start at Dh100 for adults, while children can enter free on the opening day. For more information, visit www.mubadalawtc.com.
THE BIO: Mohammed Ashiq Ali
Proudest achievement: “I came to a new country and started this shop”
Favourite TV programme: the news
Favourite place in Dubai: Al Fahidi. “They started the metro in 2009 and I didn’t take it yet.”
Family: six sons in Dubai and a daughter in Faisalabad
Slow loris biog
From: Lonely Loris is a Sunda slow loris, one of nine species of the animal native to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore
Status: Critically endangered, and listed as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature red list due to growing demand in the global exotic pet trade. It is one of the most popular primate species found at Indonesian pet markets
Likes: Sleeping, which they do for up to 18 hours a day. When they are awake, they like to eat fruit, insects, small birds and reptiles and some types of vegetation
Dislikes: Sunlight. Being a nocturnal animal, the slow loris wakes around sunset and is active throughout the night
Superpowers: His dangerous elbows. The slow loris’s doe eyes may make it look cute, but it is also deadly. The only known venomous primate, it hisses and clasps its paws and can produce a venom from its elbow that can cause anaphylactic shock and even death in humans
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At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
