Brent crude, the world oil benchmark, is set to crash through US$70 a barrel for the first time in more than four years, after one of the most precipitous falls in oil market history.
The decline gained momentum as it became clear in recent weeks that Opec policymakers would not – or could not – take any effective action to stem the slide. This was confirmed last week when the organisation’s oil ministers met in Vienna and decided to keep their current production target of 30 million barrels per day unchanged, even though it now seems clear that output is about 1 million bpd more than the world’s oil consumers will need.
Much of the commentary that has followed the Opec decision has been about the motives of the group’s effective leader, Saudi Arabia, and what that means for the oil market for the foreseeable future. The conclusion has been that Saudi Arabia wants a period of oil prices well below $100 a barrel that they have averaged over the past four years to force off the market some of the more expensive-to-produce oil, such as that from unconventional sources (shale and others), primarily in North America.
The influential Edinburgh-based oil consultancy Wood Mackenzie expects that a prolonged period during which Brent trades below $75 a barrel, and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate trades below $70 a barrel, would ultimately force a change in the economics – and therefore production – of US shale oil, also known as “tight oil”.
“For US tight oil, our detailed break-even price analysis shows by end-2015, such prices could lead to at least 600,000 bpd being removed from the market, which would curb the oversupply situation,” Wood Mackenzie’s chief macro oil analyst, Ann-Louise Hittle, argues. “Importantly, these prices would also send a sharp signal to the industry and have a wholesale effect on future spending plans which will feed through to oil prices as a supportive factor. “
Although North American production has been the main focus, there are other projects around the world that may be postponed or even cancelled if the big oil companies that fund them expect oil prices to stay low for a prolonged period. When asked about this in recent weeks, senior executives from the major oil companies have indicated that projects already committed to will not be affected by current oil prices, but that they will be taking into account the oil price outlook when they decide next year’s capital expenditure in the new year.
Surveying the oil market predictions after the Opec meeting, there is little doubt that most forecasters expect a long period of lower oil prices.
As Tom Pugh of Capital Economics points out, when Opec ministers next meet – scheduled for next June, although they can call an emergency meeting any time – they may well be facing other concerns. Assuming world oil demand plays out as forecast next year, the oversupply may get worse if by the next meeting Iran is able to thrash out an agreement with the US and other world powers over its nuclear programme. This would mean it would look to ramp up production by 1 million bpd as soon as it could.
But it should also be borne in mind that the oil market is littered with failed prognostications about where prices are headed, even in the short term.
When prices were last at current levels, they were poised to more than double within two years – and few had predicted that in the midst of the post-financial crisis gloom.
At the turn of this century, when oil prices were hovering around $20 a barrel, there were few predictions of the long steady rise in Chinese demand that ultimately pushed prices to a peak above $145 a barrel before the financial crisis, a time when the Goldman Sachs analyst Arjun Murji predicted a “superspike” to $200 a barrel. A faster pace for economic recovery next year and a few unforeseen production outages and that view may be back in fashion.
amcauley@thenational.ae
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Honeymoonish
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The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
What went into the film
25 visual effects (VFX) studios
2,150 VFX shots in a film with 2,500 shots
1,000 VFX artists
3,000 technicians
10 Concept artists, 25 3D designers
New sound technology, named 4D SRL
FINAL RESULT
Sharjah Wanderers 20 Dubai Tigers 25 (After extra-time)
Wanderers
Tries: Gormley, Penalty
cons: Flaherty
Pens: Flaherty 2
Tigers
Tries: O’Donnell, Gibbons, Kelly
Cons: Caldwell 2
Pens: Caldwell, Cross
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3ECompany%20name%3A%20CarbonSifr%3Cbr%3EStarted%3A%202022%3Cbr%3EBased%3A%20Dubai%3Cbr%3EFounders%3A%20Onur%20Elgun%2C%20Mustafa%20Bosca%20and%20Muhammed%20Yildirim%3Cbr%3ESector%3A%20Climate%20tech%3Cbr%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%241%20million%20raised%20in%20seed%20funding%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile
Date started: 2015
Founder: John Tsioris and Ioanna Angelidaki
Based: Dubai
Sector: Online grocery delivery
Staff: 200
Funding: Undisclosed, but investors include the Jabbar Internet Group and Venture Friends
The First Monday in May
Director: Andrew Rossi
Starring: Anna Wintour, Karl Lagerfeld, John Paul Gaultier, Rihanna
Three stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
THE BIO: Martin Van Almsick
Hometown: Cologne, Germany
Family: Wife Hanan Ahmed and their three children, Marrah (23), Tibijan (19), Amon (13)
Favourite dessert: Umm Ali with dark camel milk chocolate flakes
Favourite hobby: Football
Breakfast routine: a tall glass of camel milk
Avatar%20(2009)
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Election pledges on migration
CDU: "Now is the time to control the German borders and enforce strict border rejections"
SPD: "Border closures and blanket rejections at internal borders contradict the spirit of a common area of freedom"
Company%C2%A0profile
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F1 2020 calendar
March 15 - Australia, Melbourne; March 22 - Bahrain, Sakhir; April 5 - Vietnam, Hanoi; April 19 - China, Shanghai; May 3 - Netherlands, Zandvoort; May 20 - Spain, Barcelona; May 24 - Monaco, Monaco; June 7 - Azerbaijan, Baku; June 14 - Canada, Montreal; June 28 - France, Le Castellet; July 5 - Austria, Spielberg; July 19 - Great Britain, Silverstone; August 2 - Hungary, Budapest; August 30 - Belgium, Spa; September 6 - Italy, Monza; September 20 - Singapore, Singapore; September 27 - Russia, Sochi; October 11 - Japan, Suzuka; October 25 - United States, Austin; November 1 - Mexico City, Mexico City; November 15 - Brazil, Sao Paulo; November 29 - Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
THE SPECS
Engine: 3.6-litre V6
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 310hp
Torque: 366Nm
Price: Dh200,000
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
RESULTS
5pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (Turf) 2,200m
Winner: M'A Yaromoon, Jesus Rosales (jockey), Khalifa Al Neydai (trainer)
5.30pm: Khor Al Baghal – Conditions (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: No Riesgo Al Maury, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
6pm: Khor Faridah – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: JAP Almahfuz, Royston Ffrench, Irfan Ellahi
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Fillies Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: Mahmouda, Pat Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi
7pm: Abu Dhabi Colts Classic – Prestige (PA) Dh110,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner: AS Jezan, George Buckell, Ahmed Al Mehairbi
7.30pm: Khor Laffam – Handicap (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m
Winner: Dolman, Antonio Fresu, Bhupath Seemar
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, (Leon banned).
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
SPECS
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Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Champions League Last 16
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) v Bayern Munich (GER)
Sporting Lisbon (POR) v Manchester City (ENG)
Benfica (POR) v Ajax (NED)
Chelsea (ENG) v Lille (FRA)
Atletico Madrid (ESP) v Manchester United (ENG)
Villarreal (ESP) v Juventus (ITA)
Inter Milan (ITA) v Liverpool (ENG)
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid (ESP)
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Mental%20health%20support%20in%20the%20UAE
%3Cp%3E%E2%97%8F%20Estijaba%20helpline%3A%208001717%3Cbr%3E%E2%97%8F%20UAE%20Ministry%20of%20Health%20and%20Prevention%20hotline%3A%20045192519%3Cbr%3E%E2%97%8F%20UAE%20Mental%20health%20support%20line%3A%20800%204673%20(Hope)%3Cbr%3EMore%20information%20at%20hope.hw.gov.ae%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
