The financial crisis has admittedly had one side effect. Everything is now random, nothing is predictable and suddenly anything is possible.
Take, for example, the future of bonds. Or more precisely, how things are likely to pan out in the medium term for the largest asset class in the world. The lowly bond far outstrips its glamorous cousin, equities, in daily trading volumes and market size.
This year has been a bumper year for the US bond market, the biggest on earth. Almost every member of the bond family racked up impressive returns for the year that ended on September 30.
That includes: commercial mortgage backed securities (up 25 per cent); asset backed securities (up as much as 28 per cent); industrial grade bonds (gains of up to 25 per cent); emerging market (up by a third); and high yield (up by nearly half). Even the stodgy Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) looked good with 10 per cent gains.
On the face of it, that appears a very good thing. In fact, you may even believe it is the start of a sustained bond market rally, especially as last year was the worst on record for bonds.
Yet there was a reason for that eye-popping bunch of returns. The Federal Reserve had slashed US interest rates to their lowest ever and investors were frantically searching for yield.
Stock markets are viewed by some as highly risky, mainly because prices in the past decade have been on a roller-coaster ride.
Hence money poured into bonds. About US$43 billion (Dh157.93) went into bond funds this year compared to a paltry $8.4bn invested in equity funds.
US commercial banks were also a huge buyer of treasuries as they tried to make the assets side of their balance sheets look halfway decent. Of course, prices rapidly headed north as everyone rushed into the bond market.
Now the Fed, in its intense desire to jump-start the moribund US economy, has been spending money like it is going out of fashion. First, there was the $700bn that George Bush junior approved in October last year under the "Let's Help Our Dumb Banking Chums Plan", also called the Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP).
Then there was the $787bn that Barack Obama signed off on last February that had a raft of benefits such as tax relief, infrastructure, education and so on.
This easy money policy is probably working if the recent GDP stats are anything to go by. Yes, you will ask, what about the latest unemployment statistic, which is a horrendous 10.2 per cent and the highest since 1983?
Well, typically there is a lag between economic growth and the unemployment figure, so that's not really alarming.
Also, corporate earnings and economic growth may turn out to be sustainable, and not just a flash in the pan.
So here comes the bad news. When too much money chases too few assets, you end up with higher than normal inflation and the spending spree could mean that inflation may not be very far away. If there is one thing the Fed absolutely dreads more than recession it is higher inflation.
Inflation, among other things, discourages investments and savings and pummels the hapless US dollar even more, which in turn makes imports frightfully expensive. The Fed has only one trusted weapon in its arsenal to battle the inflation dragon, namely tight monetary policy (translation - higher interest rates).
Bond prices are, of course, inversely related to interest rates. Higher interest rates will therefore mean lower bond returns. The Fed has also decided to cut back its purchase of treasuries. The recent news of India buying 200 tonnes of gold may signal the start of a trend where certain developing nations - read China - slowly lose their fondness for the dollar in general and US treasuries in particular.
I have frankly no idea exactly when the above scenario will happen. It could be July next year, or even later. The huge US household debt is the factor that will hold back any meaningful consumer spending and 71 per cent of the US economy is made up of what John and Jane Smith buy.
The average American is still highly leveraged and saddled with an assortment of credit card debt, mortgage payments and auto and personal loans.
Absent a win at the Las Vegas tables or at the Kentucky Derby, consumers can spend only from three sources - earn more income, use savings or borrow more.
Right now, people are repaying debt and/or saving, rather than spending or borrowing.
The lacklustre job and housing markets are not helping, especially as $12 trillion has been wiped off peak home values since 2007. All this does not exactly set the stage for economic growth.
Still, it is a question of when, not if. At some point, when rates rise, it will dawn on bond investors that high yield is all very fine but not at the cost of loss of principal, which is what will happen when bond prices finally take a beating.
So if you are bearish on bonds, what could you do?
Well, typical bond portfolio strategies in such a scenario include reducing exposure to higher duration bonds, investing in bonds with a higher coupon rate and looking more closely at bonds with shorter tenors.
Another strategy is to "ladder" your portfolio, which is buying bonds with staggered maturities.
This reduces interest rate risk and you also reinvest funds at higher rates from maturing bonds. Floating rate notes can also be added to the list, although you need to watch for poor credit quality.
All this reduces the average portfolio duration and brings down the risk of losing value when your Bloomberg terminal finally flashes the news of rising employment and inflation.
Binod Shankar is a Chartered Accountant and a CFA Charterholder. He is a freelance writer and consultant and runs Genesis, a financial training company
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
RACE CARD
6.30pm Maiden (TB) Dh82.500 (Dirt) 1,400m
7.05pm Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 1,400m
7.40pm Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (Turf) 2,410m
8.15pm Handicap (TB) Dh105,000 (D) 1,900m
8.50pm UAE 2000 Guineas Trial (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm Dubai Trophy (TB) Conditions Dh183,650 (T) 1,200m
10pm Handicap (TB) Dh102,500 (T) 1,400m
Tips for newlyweds to better manage finances
All couples are unique and have to create a financial blueprint that is most suitable for their relationship, says Vijay Valecha, chief investment officer at Century Financial. He offers his top five tips for couples to better manage their finances.
Discuss your assets and debts: When married, it’s important to understand each other’s personal financial situation. It’s necessary to know upfront what each party brings to the table, as debts and assets affect spending habits and joint loan qualifications. Discussing all aspects of their finances as a couple prevents anyone from being blindsided later.
Decide on the financial/saving goals: Spouses should independently list their top goals and share their lists with one another to shape a joint plan. Writing down clear goals will help them determine how much to save each month, how much to put aside for short-term goals, and how they will reach their long-term financial goals.
Set a budget: A budget can keep the couple be mindful of their income and expenses. With a monthly budget, couples will know exactly how much they can spend in a category each month, how much they have to work with and what spending areas need to be evaluated.
Decide who manages what: When it comes to handling finances, it’s a good idea to decide who manages what. For example, one person might take on the day-to-day bills, while the other tackles long-term investments and retirement plans.
Money date nights: Talking about money should be a healthy, ongoing conversation and couples should not wait for something to go wrong. They should set time aside every month to talk about future financial decisions and see the progress they’ve made together towards accomplishing their goals.
Match info
Deccan Gladiators 87-8
Asif Khan 25, Dwayne Bravo 2-16
Maratha Arabians 89-2
Chadwick Walton 51 not out
Arabians won the final by eight wickets
Bharat
Director: Ali Abbas Zafar
Starring: Salman Khan, Katrina Kaif, Sunil Grover
Rating: 2.5 out of 5 stars
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
Dubai World Cup Carnival card
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group 1 (PA) US$75,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
7.05pm: Al Rashidiya Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (Turf) 1,800m
7.40pm: Meydan Cup Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,810m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,600m
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
9.25pm: Al Shindagha Sprint Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
10pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 2,000m
The National selections:
6.30pm - Ziyadd; 7.05pm - Barney Roy; 7.40pm - Dee Ex Bee; 8.15pm - Dubai Legacy; 8.50pm - Good Fortune; 9.25pm - Drafted; 10pm - Simsir
Specs
Price, base: Dhs850,000
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 591bhp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.3L / 100km
The squad traveling to Brazil:
Faisal Al Ketbi, Ibrahim Al Hosani, Khalfan Humaid Balhol, Khalifa Saeed Al Suwaidi, Mubarak Basharhil, Obaid Salem Al Nuaimi, Saeed Juma Al Mazrouei, Saoud Abdulla Al Hammadi, Taleb Al Kirbi, Yahia Mansour Al Hammadi, Zayed Al Kaabi, Zayed Saif Al Mansoori, Saaid Haj Hamdou, Hamad Saeed Al Nuaimi. Coaches Roberto Lima and Alex Paz.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Alan%20Wake%20Remastered%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERemedy%20Entertainment%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Microsoft%20Game%20Studios%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsoles%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PlayStation%204%20%26amp%3B%205%2C%20Xbox%3A%20360%20%26amp%3B%20One%20%26amp%3B%20Series%20X%2FS%20and%20Nintendo%20Switch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
'Nope'
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jordan%20Peele%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Daniel%20Kaluuya%2C%20Keke%20Palmer%2C%20Brandon%20Perea%2C%20Steven%20Yeun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: Aston Martin DB11 V8 vs Ferrari GTC4Lusso T
Price, base: Dh840,000; Dh120,000
Engine: 4.0L V8 twin-turbo; 3.9L V8 turbo
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic; seven-speed automatic
Power: 509hp @ 6,000rpm; 601hp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 695Nm @ 2,000rpm; 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.9L / 100km; 11.6L / 100km
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
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The Perfect Couple
Starring: Nicole Kidman, Liev Schreiber, Jack Reynor
Creator: Jenna Lamia
Rating: 3/5
THE%20SPECS
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
England World Cup squad
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Zayed%20Centre%20for%20Research
%3Cp%3EThe%20Zayed%20Centre%20for%20Research%20is%20a%20partnership%20between%20Great%20Ormond%20Street%20Hospital%2C%20University%20College%20London%20and%20Great%20Ormond%20Street%20Hospital%20Children%E2%80%99s%20Charity%20and%20was%20made%20possible%20thanks%20to%20a%20generous%20%C2%A360%20million%20gift%20in%202014%20from%20Sheikha%20Fatima%20bint%20Mubarak%2C%20Chairwoman%20of%20the%20General%20Women's%20Union%2C%20President%20of%20the%20Supreme%20Council%20for%20Motherhood%20and%20Childhood%2C%20and%20Supreme%20Chairwoman%20of%20the%20Family%20Development%20Foundation.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20myZoi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Syed%20Ali%2C%20Christian%20Buchholz%2C%20Shanawaz%20Rouf%2C%20Arsalan%20Siddiqui%2C%20Nabid%20Hassan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2037%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Initial%20undisclosed%20funding%20from%20SC%20Ventures%3B%20second%20round%20of%20funding%20totalling%20%2414%20million%20from%20a%20consortium%20of%20SBI%2C%20a%20Japanese%20VC%20firm%2C%20and%20SC%20Venture%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Lamsa
Founder: Badr Ward
Launched: 2014
Employees: 60
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: EdTech
Funding to date: $15 million
Where to Find Me by Alba Arikha
Alma Books
Match info
Huddersfield Town 0
Chelsea 3
Kante (34'), Jorginho (45' pen), Pedro (80')
Heavily-sugared soft drinks slip through the tax net
Some popular drinks with high levels of sugar and caffeine have slipped through the fizz drink tax loophole, as they are not carbonated or classed as an energy drink.
Arizona Iced Tea with lemon is one of those beverages, with one 240 millilitre serving offering up 23 grams of sugar - about six teaspoons.
A 680ml can of Arizona Iced Tea costs just Dh6.
Most sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, five teaspoons of sugar in a 500ml bottle.