Normally I don’t like to predict, but this time I’m going to go out on a limb. After the government’s courageous reforms last week, Egypt’s economy will quickly begin roaring ahead at speeds we haven’t seen in a decade.
After nearly six years of increasingly restrictive currency controls that had been strangling the economy, the central bank on November 3 took the bold and difficult decision to float the Egyptian pound – entirely. There were fears in the business community the government would do the bare minimum devaluation necessary to get the US$12 billion loan it has been seeking from the IMF. But in the end the central bank far exceeded expectations. I am absolutely overjoyed.
This should quickly translate into exceptionally fast economic growth, and here is why:
Immediately after Egypt’s 2011 uprising, many people had expected to see a J curve, where the economy collapses briefly because of the flight of tourists and foreign investors (the first part of the J), but then they rush back to make up for lost time once a stable government is in place (the second part of the J).
It never happened – partly because of security concerns but mostly because the central bank, in the middle of the 2011 uprising, once again began pegging the currency at unrealistic levels. Investors knew the currency would eventually have to come down, wiping out part of their investments, and they also had a well-grounded fear that they would not be able to repatriate their profits as the country ran out of foreign currency.
As a result, private business contracted in last month by its fastest pace since 2013, according to the Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by Emirates NBD. The PMI collapsed to 36.4 from the previous month’s 42 – where anything under 50 represents economic shrinkage.
This should be the last month we hear such painful news. Over the past week, the central bank has allowed the pound to weaken from its peg of 8.88 pounds to the US dollar.
The central bank as of Thursday morning was offering to sell dollars to commercial banks for 17.5967 pounds. So far it has resisted the temptation to draw down reserves to slow the currency’s fall.
We can get some idea of the economic growth we can now expect by looking at what happened the last time the central bank liberated its currency, more than a decade ago. It devalued the pound in 2003, then floated it entirely in December 2004.
Egypt’s economic landscape then was similar to what it now is in a number of ways. Tourism was just beginning to recover from a series of disasters – the massacre of dozens of tourists at Hatshepsut’s Temple in Luxor in 1997, the outbreak of the second Palestinian uprising in late 2000 and the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Egypt had just discovered world-class natural gasfields in the waters of the Mediterranean and began delivering gas from its two new liquefaction plants in December 2004 and May 2005.
Tourism now is similarly recovering from new disasters – the political instability in the wake of the 2011 uprising and the bombing over Sinai of a Russian aircraft a year ago. Tourism revenue collapsed in the year to the end of June to its lowest level in well over a decade.
And as in 2004, Egypt has vast newly discovered gasfields offshore that will come into production soon.
So how fast was economic growth the last time around?
Before the January 2003 devaluation, the economy had been growing at tepid rate of about only 3 per cent. After the devaluation, it sped up to 4 per cent and again to 5 per cent the following year.
After the pound was floated entirely in December 2004, the currency actually strengthened against the dollar – growth soared to 6.9 per cent in 2005-06 and to 7.1 per cent and 7.2 per cent in the subsequent two years.
Egypt has some higher hurdles now than it did in 2004. Then, the world economy was also growing at a much faster clip and international energy prices were much higher.
But the country now has some important advantages it didn’t have then. As of 2002, Egypt only had 65,000 hotel rooms, whereas in early 2015 it had 225,000, with another 150,000 being built.
The country’s natural gas infrastructure is far more advanced than in 2004, with two giant liquefaction plants all but idle and ready to accept gas for export if Egypt can produce a surplus or persuade Cyprus or Israel to send their own newly discovered gas for processing.
But perhaps the most important advantages are the huge growth and greater sophistication of Egypt’s private business community and the expansion of the country’s infrastructure. Businesspeople who have waited on the sidelines for six years have built up an enormous backlog of investments.
We should soon see some amazing growth.
Patrick Werr has worked as a financial writer in Egypt for 26 years
business@thenational.ae
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Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
The story in numbers
18
This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens
450,000
More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps
1.5 million
There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m
73
The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association
18,000
The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme
77,400
The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study
4,926
This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee
The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz C200 Coupe
Price, base: Dh201,153
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Power: 204hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 300Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.7L / 100km
MO
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The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
The specs
Engine: 1.6-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 217hp at 5,750rpm
Torque: 300Nm at 1,900rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh130,000
On sale: now
Company%20profile
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Aston martin DBX specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed automatic
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Top speed: 291kph
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: Q2, 2020
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
FORSPOKEN
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Baldur's%20Gate%203
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Starfield
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The Saga Continues
Wu-Tang Clan
(36 Chambers / Entertainment One)
ICC men's cricketer of the year
2004 - Rahul Dravid (IND) ; 2005 - Jacques Kallis (SA) and Andrew Flintoff (ENG); 2006 - Ricky Ponting (AUS); 2007 - Ricky Ponting; 2008 - Shivnarine Chanderpaul (WI); 2009 - Mitchell Johnson (AUS); 2010 - Sachin Tendulkar (IND); 2011 - Jonathan Trott (ENG); 2012 - Kumar Sangakkara (SL); 2013 - Michael Clarke (AUS); 2014 - Mitchell Johnson; 2015 - Steve Smith (AUS); 2016 - Ravichandran Ashwin (IND); 2017 - Virat Kohli (IND); 2018 - Virat Kohli; 2019 - Ben Stokes (ENG); 2021 - Shaheen Afridi
FIGHT INFO
Men’s 60kg Round 1:
Ahmad Shuja Jamal (AFG) beat Krisada Takhiankliang (THA) - points
Hyan Aljmyah (SYR) beat Akram Alyminee (YEM) - retired Round 1
Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) beat Bhanu Pratap Pandit (IND) - TKO Round 1
Men’s 71kg Round 1:
Seyed Kaveh Soleyman (IRI) beat Abedel Rahman (JOR) - RSC round 3.
Amine Al Moatassime (UAE) walk over Ritiz Puri (NEP)
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The figures behind the event
1) More than 300 in-house cleaning crew
2) 165 staff assigned to sanitise public areas throughout the show
3) 1,000 social distancing stickers
4) 809 hand sanitiser dispensers placed throughout the venue
Results:
Women:
1. Rhiannan Iffland (AUS) 322.95 points
2. Lysanne Richard (CAN) 285.75
3. Ellie Smart (USA) 277.70
Men:
1. Gary Hunt (GBR) 431.55
2. Constantin Popovici (ROU) 424.65
3. Oleksiy Prygorov (UKR) 392.30
DUBAI%20BLING%3A%20EPISODE%201
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TO%20CATCH%20A%20KILLER
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VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Dates for the diary
To mark Bodytree’s 10th anniversary, the coming season will be filled with celebratory activities:
- September 21 Anyone interested in becoming a certified yoga instructor can sign up for a 250-hour course in Yoga Teacher Training with Jacquelene Sadek. It begins on September 21 and will take place over the course of six weekends.
- October 18 to 21 International yoga instructor, Yogi Nora, will be visiting Bodytree and offering classes.
- October 26 to November 4 International pilates instructor Courtney Miller will be on hand at the studio, offering classes.
- November 9 Bodytree is hosting a party to celebrate turning 10, and everyone is invited. Expect a day full of free classes on the grounds of the studio.
- December 11 Yogeswari, an advanced certified Jivamukti teacher, will be visiting the studio.
- February 2, 2018 Bodytree will host its 4th annual yoga market.
Who is Ramon Tribulietx?
Born in Spain, Tribulietx took sole charge of Auckland in 2010 and has gone on to lead the club to 14 trophies, including seven successive Oceania Champions League crowns. Has been tipped for the vacant New Zealand national team job following Anthony Hudson's resignation last month. Had previously been considered for the role.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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UFC%20FIGHT%20NIGHT%3A%20SAUDI%20ARABIA%20RESULTS
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The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
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TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
The biog
Simon Nadim has completed 7,000 dives.
The hardest dive in the UAE is the German U-boat 110m down off the Fujairah coast.
As a child, he loved the documentaries of Jacques Cousteau
He also led a team that discovered the long-lost portion of the Ines oil tanker.
If you are interested in diving, he runs the XR Hub Dive Centre in Fujairah
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
The specs: 2019 Subaru Forester
Price, base: Dh105,900 (Premium); Dh115,900 (Sport)
Engine: 2.5-litre four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 182hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 239Nm @ 4,400rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.1L / 100km (estimated)
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
The specs
Engine: 5.0-litre V8
Power: 480hp at 7,250rpm
Torque: 566Nm at 4,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: L/100km
Price: Dh306,495
On sale: now
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Representing%20UAE%20overseas
%3Cp%3E%0DIf%20Catherine%20Richards%20debuts%20for%20Wales%20in%20the%20Six%20Nations%2C%20she%20will%20be%20the%20latest%20to%20have%20made%20it%20from%20the%20UAE%20to%20the%20top%20tier%20of%20the%20international%20game%20in%20the%20oval%20ball%20codes.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESeren%20Gough-Walters%20(Wales%20rugby%20league)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBorn%20in%20Dubai%2C%20raised%20in%20Sharjah%2C%20and%20once%20an%20immigration%20officer%20at%20the%20British%20Embassy%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20she%20debuted%20for%20Wales%20in%20rugby%20league%20in%202021.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESophie%20Shams%20(England%20sevens)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EWith%20an%20Emirati%20father%20and%20English%20mother%2C%20Shams%20excelled%20at%20rugby%20at%20school%20in%20Dubai%2C%20and%20went%20on%20to%20represent%20England%20on%20the%20sevens%20circuit.%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFiona%20Reidy%20(Ireland)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMade%20her%20Test%20rugby%20bow%20for%20Ireland%20against%20England%20in%202015%2C%20having%20played%20for%20four%20years%20in%20the%20capital%20with%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20previously.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile
Name: Infinite8
Based: Dubai
Launch year: 2017
Number of employees: 90
Sector: Online gaming industry
Funding: $1.2m from a UAE angel investor
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
- The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
- The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
- The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
- The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
- The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
Simran
Director Hansal Mehta
Stars: Kangana Ranaut, Soham Shah, Esha Tiwari Pandey
Three stars
If you go
Flying
Despite the extreme distance, flying to Fairbanks is relatively simple, requiring just one transfer in Seattle, which can be reached directly from Dubai with Emirates for Dh6,800 return.
Touring
Gondwana Ecotours’ seven-day Polar Bear Adventure starts in Fairbanks in central Alaska before visiting Kaktovik and Utqiarvik on the North Slope. Polar bear viewing is highly likely in Kaktovik, with up to five two-hour boat tours included. Prices start from Dh11,500 per person, with all local flights, meals and accommodation included; gondwanaecotours.com
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
