S&P Global Ratings expects muted loan growth in the GCC both for this year and the next averaging between 3 to 4 per cent, weighed down by lacklustre demand for debt and cuts in government spending.
While that is a slight improvement from the 2.6 per cent loan growth recorded last year in the GCC, it pales in comparison to the 5.6 per cent loan growth witnessed in 2016 and 10.1 per cent in 2015.
"The slowdown is very visible," Mohamed Damak, a senior director at S&P Global Ratings, told at a press conference in Dubai on Tuesday. "There's an overall slowdown in the economy, fewer opportunities, and government spending rationalisation. The fact is some of the governments are continuing to cut spending to adjust to the new reality. "
The profitability of regional banks will also be dented by higher interest rates, Mr Damak said. While banks in theory benefit from rising rates, the situation is complicated in the region because higher rates at a time of economic slowness is typically not a recipe for growth. Central banks in the GCC, with the exception of Kuwait, peg their currencies to the US dollar and hence follow the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
However, not all central banks are likely to raise rates because a hike could negatively impact clients, many of which have been under pressure over the past couple of years in the aftermath of the 2014 oil crash. Raising rates for some clients may impinge their ability to service their loans and increase the number of non-performing loans, he said.
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VAT is unlikely to have a big impact on the profitability of banks as lenders have become increasingly efficient in the advent of the digital age and are likely to become even more nimble as they invest in artificial intelligence and rely less on human resources, Mr Damak said.
That improvement in efficiency and the ability of banks to reduce levels of non-performing loans has helped lenders in the region be more resilient. As a result, S&P said that banks in the region remained profitable and have healthy earnings generation. Their non-performing loan ratio is steady at 3 per cent, the rating agency said.
Mr Damak declined to reveal specific loan growth estimates for individual countries but bankers and analysts have been predicting high single digit loan growth for the UAE in 2018, driven by an increase in government spending ahead of Dubai's hosting of Expo 2020.
Mark Robinson, the chief executive officer of Dubai-based Commercial Bank International (CBI), told The National earlier this month he expects 5 per cent loan growth for CBI and a similar amount for the banking market as a whole in 2018. Egyptian investment bank EFG-Hermes is also expecting an uptick in loan growth.
The latest quarterly results from banks are already showing signs of improvement. Emirates NBD, Dubai's biggest lender, said its fourth quarter profit rose 17 per cent.
Profits at Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, the Emirate’s biggest Sharia-compliant lender, rose 33.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2017, beating analysts’ estimates, as fees and commissions income rose and impairments dipped.
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
The specs
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Transmission: ten-speed
Power: 420bhp
Torque: 624Nm
Price: Dh325,125
On sale: Now
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
THE SPECS
Jaguar F-Pace SVR
Engine: 5-litre supercharged V8
Transmission: 8-speed automatic
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 680Nm
Price: Dh465,071
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%3Cp%3EThe%20Royal%20Navy%20raid%20is%20the%20latest%20in%20a%20series%20of%20successful%20interceptions%20of%20drugs%20and%20arms%20in%20the%20Gulf%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMay%2011%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EUS%20coastguard%20recovers%20%2480%20million%20heroin%20haul%20from%20fishing%20vessel%20in%20Gulf%20of%20Oman%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMay%208%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20US%20coastguard%20vessel%20USCGC%20Glen%20Harris%20seizes%20heroin%20and%20meth%20worth%20more%20than%20%2430%20million%20from%20a%20fishing%20boat%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMarch%202%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Anti-tank%20guided%20missiles%20and%20missile%20components%20seized%20by%20HMS%20Lancaster%20from%20a%20small%20boat%20travelling%20from%20Iran%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOctober%209%2C%202022%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERoyal%20Navy%20frigate%20HMS%20Montrose%20recovers%20drugs%20worth%20%2417.8%20million%20from%20a%20dhow%20in%20Arabian%20Sea%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESeptember%2027%2C%202022%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20US%20Naval%20Forces%20Central%20Command%20reports%20a%20find%20of%202.4%20tonnes%20of%20heroin%20on%20board%20fishing%20boat%20in%20Gulf%20of%20Oman%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Her most famous song
Aghadan Alqak (Would I Ever Find You Again)?
Would I ever find you again
You, the heaven of my love, my yearning and madness;
You, the kiss to my soul, my cheer and
sadness?
Would your lights ever break the night of my eyes again?
Would I ever find you again?
This world is volume and you're the notion,
This world is night and you're the lifetime,
This world is eyes and you're the vision,
This world is sky and you're the moon time,
Have mercy on the heart that belongs to you.
Lyrics: Al Hadi Adam; Composer: Mohammed Abdel Wahab
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
OTHER IPL BOWLING RECORDS
Best bowling figures: 6-14 – Sohail Tanvir (for Rajasthan Royals against Chennai Super Kings in 2008)
Best average: 16.36 – Andrew Tye
Best economy rate: 6.53 – Sunil Narine
Best strike-rate: 12.83 – Andrew Tye
Best strike-rate in an innings: 1.50 – Suresh Raina (for Chennai Super Kings against Rajasthan Royals in 2011)
Most runs conceded in an innings: 70 – Basil Thampi (for Sunrisers Hyderabad against Royal Challengers Bangalore in 2018)
Most hat-tricks: 3 – Amit Mishra
Most dot-balls: 1,128 – Harbhajan Singh
Most maiden overs bowled: 14 – Praveen Kumar
Most four-wicket hauls: 6 – Sunil Narine
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The biog
Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages
Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”
Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”
Favourite film: “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”
Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”
Tips to keep your car cool
- Place a sun reflector in your windshield when not driving
- Park in shaded or covered areas
- Add tint to windows
- Wrap your car to change the exterior colour
- Pick light interiors - choose colours such as beige and cream for seats and dashboard furniture
- Avoid leather interiors as these absorb more heat
