Rating agency Moody's Investors Service assigned Arabian Gulf banks a stable outlook on the back of improving operating conditions, strong capital and weakening but still solid lending.
Banks in UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia will remain resilient but fiscal pressures will weigh on banks in Oman and Bahrain, where oil prices will remain below the levels needed to balance state budgets, Moody's said in a report on Wednesday.
"Current oil prices will support increased government spending, and stimulus packages such as UAE's Expo 2020, the Saudi National Transformation Plan...will underpin banks' stable financial performance," said Nitish Bhojnagarwala, a Moody's vice president and senior credit officer.
In June, Abu Dhabi announced a Dh50 billion three-year stimulus plan aimed at spurring economic growth, streamlining business procedures, creating jobs and boosting tourism. The government has since rolled out a series of measures to support new industries, ease visa rules, attract foreign investors and boost non-oil gross domestic product.
__________
Read more:
Sheikh Khalifa issues new law to raise UAE Central Bank capital to Dh20bn
Higher non-oil GDP prompts UAE Central Bank to increase 2018 growth forecast
__________
GCC banks' credit growth will recover as government spending stimulates the economies and spurs private-sector growth, Moody's said.
Lending growth in 2019 will range from 4 per cent in Saudi Arabia and 6 to 7 per cent in Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, according to the report.
Banks' lending to construction and real-estate sectors will increase, it said. The property market in Gulf economies such as the UAE has slowed this year while sales and rents dropped.
Moody's expects nonperforming loans (NPLs) to stand at a "still good" 3 per cent of total loans at the end of 2019.
GCC lenders' capital will stay "broadly stable", benefiting from modest credit growth and stable bottom-line
profitability.
Pressures on profitability are expected to ease, with net income to tangible assets remaining strong at around 1.5 per cent to 2.1 per cent, it said.
"Banks have adapted their cost base to the slowing economic environment, maintaining strong efficiency," Moody's said. "Consolidation will ease competition and also alleviate some pressure on profitability."
Banks in the Gulf are increasingly looking to merge in a bid to gain scale to cope with tougher operating conditions as low oil prices in the past three years have squeezed their profit margins. Regional banks are set to see a stronger performance this year as macroeconomic conditions improve and demand for credit grows, according to analysts and reports by rating agencies S&P Global Ratings and Moody's.
Governments' willingness to support GCC banks remains high and their capacity to do so is strong, with the exception of smaller Gulf economies, the report said.
Oman and Bahrain are grappling with fiscal deficits after a three-year drop in oil prices hurt their economies. The outlook shows Moody's expectations for how GCC banks' creditworthiness will develop over the next 12 to 18 months.
In October, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait pledged $10 billion in financial support for Bahrain's reform package that aims to eliminate the kingdom's budget deficit by 2022. Bahrain plans to balance its budget with measures focusing on increasing revenue capture from the non-oil sector of the economy. Currently, fiscal revenues are heavily oil-dependent, despite the oil sector contributing less than 20 per cent to GDP, according to S&P.
Economic growth of Oman, the biggest Middle East oil producer outside Opec, will accelerate to 3.1 per cent in 2019, up from 2.6 per cent this year, while inflation rises as the sultanate ramps up benchmark interest rates in line with the US Federal Reserve, Fitch Solutions said in a report last month. The sultanate plans to introduce a 5 per cent VAT in 2019.
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Ticket prices
- Golden circle - Dh995
- Floor Standing - Dh495
- Lower Bowl Platinum - Dh95
- Lower Bowl premium - Dh795
- Lower Bowl Plus - Dh695
- Lower Bowl Standard- Dh595
- Upper Bowl Premium - Dh395
- Upper Bowl standard - Dh295
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Specs – Taycan 4S
Engine: Electric
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 571bhp
Torque: 650Nm
Price: Dh431,800
Specs – Panamera
Engine: 3-litre V6 with 100kW electric motor
Transmission: 2-speed auto
Power: 455bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: from Dh431,800
How England have scored their set-piece goals in Russia
Three Penalties
v Panama, Group Stage (Harry Kane)
v Panama, Group Stage (Kane)
v Colombia, Last 16 (Kane)
Four Corners
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via John Stones header, from Ashley Young corner)
v Tunisia, Group Stage (Kane, via Harry Maguire header, from Kieran Trippier corner)
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, header, from Trippier corner)
v Sweden, Quarter-Final (Maguire, header, from Young corner)
One Free-Kick
v Panama, Group Stage (Stones, via Jordan Henderson, Kane header, and Raheem Sterling, from Tripper free-kick)
Fight card
1. Bantamweight: Victor Nunes (BRA) v Siyovush Gulmamadov (TJK)
2. Featherweight: Hussein Salim (IRQ) v Shakhriyor Juraev (UZB)
3. Catchweight 80kg: Rashed Dawood (UAE) v Khamza Yamadaev (RUS)
4. Lightweight: Ho Taek-oh (KOR) v Ronald Girones (CUB)
5. Lightweight: Arthur Zaynukov (RUS) v Damien Lapilus (FRA)
6. Bantamweight: Vinicius de Oliveira (BRA) v Furkatbek Yokubov (RUS)
7. Featherweight: Movlid Khaybulaev (RUS) v Zaka Fatullazade (AZE)
8. Flyweight: Shannon Ross (TUR) v Donovon Freelow (USA)
9. Lightweight: Mohammad Yahya (UAE) v Dan Collins (GBR)
10. Catchweight 73kg: Islam Mamedov (RUS) v Martun Mezhulmyan (ARM)
11. Bantamweight World title: Jaures Dea (CAM) v Xavier Alaoui (MAR)
12. Flyweight World title: Manon Fiorot (FRA) v Gabriela Campo (ARG)
