Bank of China and HSBC ATM machines. The may be trouble ahead for Chinese lenders. Reuters
Bank of China and HSBC ATM machines. The may be trouble ahead for Chinese lenders. Reuters

Behind the gains for China's big banks lurks the spectre of pain



At first glance, investors in China’s big banks should be breaking out the champagne.

Tighter liquidity has boosted margins at three of the big four, with a crackdown on shadow banking forcing borrowers into the hands of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank, Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China.

The snag is that a retreat from deleveraging is causing the spectre of bad loans to return.

Construction Bank, Bank of China and Agricultural Bank reported gains in second-quarter net income of between 5.2 per cent and 7.9 per cent on Tuesday. Bank of Communications, the fifth-largest by assets, posted a 5.2 per cent profit increase last week. ICBC looks certain to extend the trend on Thursday. Notably, bad debt levels fell at all of the four reporting so far.

Meanwhile, the chance of a revived threat from shadow banking appears remote: China's campaign to restrain that  $10 trillion industry remains firmly in place.

At issue instead is an age-old pattern: confronted with a slowing economy and a worsening trade war, Beijing is opening the credit taps once again. History shows that when the money flows, prudent loan guidelines go out of the window and capital is inevitably misdirected.

After the central bank loosened liquidity in April, Beijing is now allowing debt-burdened local governments to spend on infrastructure again and encouraging loans for agriculture. Vice Premier Liu He is exhorting banks to lend to smaller businesses, especially those hit by US tariffs.

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Read more:

China can weather any trade pressure the US puts on it

China eyes infrastructure boost as trade war escalates – sources

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Top that with the credit splurge on President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative, and bad news awaits. Belt-and-Road projects don’t always have commercial value, even without factoring in political risks such as the scrapping of agreements by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad.

The big banks are caught up in this drive: on Tuesday, Bank of China, which has the largest international franchise, said it has so far provided $115.9 billion in “credit support” for more than 600 Belt-and-Road projects.

Now that Beijing has switched its emphasis to stimulus, pressure to lend is bound to fall hardest on the big banks, which are the world’s largest by assets. After all, they’re in a better place to lend than their regulation-bound fintech rivals or smaller counterparts.

Construction Bank and its ilk have been the primary beneficiaries of the deleveraging campaign: as their bad debt fell, system-wide nonperforming loans increased by a record last quarter. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission data show 80 per cent of the rise in second-quarter bad debt was from rural commercial banks, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Francis Chan said.

To be sure, no one expects a repeat of the vast credit binge that followed the 2008 crisis, which saw China’s debt-to-GDP ratio balloon to 266 per cent at the end of last year from 164 per cent a decade earlier, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. Having struggled so hard to bring debt under control in the past year, authorities will be reluctant to open the spigots fully.

But it’s telling that share valuations of the big lenders are now flagging, after a strong start to the year when efforts to control debt were at their height and China’s economy looked resilient. They’re trading below one-time book, a sign of investors’ lack of faith in their numbers.

That’s bad news for lenders seeking to replenish capital. Agricultural Bank sold $15 billion of shares last month, but the buyers were state-linked entities. Moreover, state-owned banks aren’t allowed to sell stock publicly for less than book.

We’ve seen the China stimulus movie before, and there’s little reason to expect a different ending this time.

Keep those mocktails on ice.

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The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

NO OTHER LAND

Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal

Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham

Rating: 3.5/5

In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe

Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010

Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille

Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm

Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year

Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”

Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners

TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013 

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Engine: 51.5kW electric motor

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

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THE SPECS

Engine: 6.75-litre twin-turbocharged V12 petrol engine 

Power: 420kW

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Transmission: 8-speed automatic

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THE SIXTH SENSE

Starring: Bruce Willis, Toni Collette, Hayley Joel Osment

Director: M. Night Shyamalan

Rating: 5/5

The specs

Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel

Power: 579hp

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Arabian Gulf League fixtures:

Friday:

  • Emirates v Hatta, 5.15pm
  • Al Wahda v Al Dhafra, 5.25pm
  • Al Ain v Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 8.15pm

Saturday:

  • Dibba v Ajman, 5.15pm
  • Sharjah v Al Wasl, 5.20pm
  • Al Jazira v Al Nasr, 8.15pm
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Our family matters legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

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