The Bank of England looks set to keep interest rates on ice this week, capping a sharp swing in the outlook for the British central bank, which might now struggle to convince investors that it will raise borrowing costs at all this year.
Unexpectedly weak economic data and cautious remarks from Governor Mark Carney have dashed what looked like near-certain expectations of a rate increase until a few weeks ago.
Since he joined the BoE in 2013, Mr Carney has signalled several times that rates were likely to rise, only for economic data to go the wrong way.
With the prospects for Britain's economy unclear and the terms of Britain's departure from the European Union far from settled, Mr Carney is likely to want to hedge his bets on Thursday.
The biggest challenge will be to keep the prospect of a further rate rise this year credible in the eyes of investors, who feel wrong-footed by a slowdown in the economy that may well prove temporary and by the BoE's shifting guidance.
Sterling fell to its lowest since January against the US dollar on Friday as markets priced diverging prospects for growth and interest rates on the two sides of the Atlantic.
"Resetting communication after sitting out a rate hike will be an uphill task for the Monetary Policy Committee," Barclays economists Fabrice Montagne and Sreekala Kochugovindan said in a note to clients.
"It will have to make a convincing case that softness in Q1 ... is transitory," they said. "Markets will likely be reluctant to adhere to the MPC's rhetoric given the abrupt change in course witnessed shortly ahead of the May meeting."
Heavy snow slowed the economies of much of Europe in March but growth was weakest in Britain, where Brexit-related pressures have squeezed consumer spending power and hurt the willingness of firms to sign off on major investments.
The BoE raised rates for the first time in more than a decade in November, and in February it said they might need to rise again more quickly than markets had expected, given the country's long-term productivity problems.
In March, two policymakers voted for an increase and until a few weeks ago, most investors judged that the BoE was ready to join the US Federal Reserve, which has been raising rates.
But late last month, data started to raise doubts. Inflation fell faster than the BoE had expected and the economy grew at its slowest annual rate in five years in early 2018.
The central bank could choose to ignore the recently weak growth and take a longer-term view, with unemployment at its lowest since 1975 and some measures of wage growth inching up.
_______________
Read more:
Central banks nervous at prospect of a trade war
IMF says global growth to slow in medium term as it warns of trade war harm
_______________
Economists polled by Reuters expect that only the two policymakers who backed a rate rise in March - Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty - will vote to tighten policy this month.
Financial markets are barely pricing in a 50 per cent chance of a rate rise by August and have slight doubts whether rates will increase at all this year.
The BoE may not be comfortable with this scaling-back of interest rate expectations, which has the potential to fuel inflation through a weaker pound and cheaper credit.
Economists think it will trim its comparatively high growth and inflation forecasts for this year, but still forecast inflation above its 2 per cent target over the medium term and economic growth of around 0.4 per cent a quarter.
"(This) would point to the gradual tightening of monetary policy being delayed rather than abandoned," economist Howard Archer of consultants EY ITEM Club said.
Investec economist Philip Shaw said the BoE would avoid pinning itself down.
"At this juncture, the MPC does not have to take a heroic view over whether the economy's current sluggishness is temporary or something more malign ... (and) Dr Carney will stress the uncertainties connected with recent soft data."
But others think Mr Carney may have missed the boat if he wants to raise rates again before he is due to leave the BoE in June 2019, saying growth will look increasingly shaky as Britain's March 2019 departure date from the EU approaches.
"Delaying the next hike will eventually lead to not being able to deliver it at all," Barclays said.
A MINECRAFT MOVIE
Director: Jared Hess
Starring: Jack Black, Jennifer Coolidge, Jason Momoa
Rating: 3/5
Specs
Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
Available: Now
Mental%20health%20support%20in%20the%20UAE
%3Cp%3E%E2%97%8F%20Estijaba%20helpline%3A%208001717%3Cbr%3E%E2%97%8F%20UAE%20Ministry%20of%20Health%20and%20Prevention%20hotline%3A%20045192519%3Cbr%3E%E2%97%8F%20UAE%20Mental%20health%20support%20line%3A%20800%204673%20(Hope)%3Cbr%3EMore%20information%20at%20hope.hw.gov.ae%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross
Price, base / as tested: Dh101,140 / Dh113,800
Engine: Turbocharged 1.5-litre four-cylinder
Power: 148hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 250Nm @ 2,000rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed CVT
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.0L / 100km
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
More on Quran memorisation:
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
THE BIO
Favourite place to go to in the UAE: The desert sand dunes, just after some rain
Who inspires you: Anybody with new and smart ideas, challenging questions, an open mind and a positive attitude
Where would you like to retire: Most probably in my home country, Hungary, but with frequent returns to the UAE
Favorite book: A book by Transilvanian author, Albert Wass, entitled ‘Sword and Reap’ (Kard es Kasza) - not really known internationally
Favourite subjects in school: Mathematics and science
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Ronaldo's record at Man Utd
Seasons 2003/04 - 2008/09
Appearances 230
Goals 115
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
