Moody’s Investors Service revised the outlook for UAE banks to positive from stable amid the country’s strong economic growth due to its diversification efforts.
The UAE’s real gross domestic product is expected to expand by 4.6 per cent in 2024, from 3.1 per cent in 2023, and the non-oil economy will grow by an estimated 4.5 per cent this year, supporting banks' performance, the rating agency said in a report on Wednesday.
“Continued economic growth will support borrowers' repayment capacity … banks' strong capital buffers will inch higher on the back of bottom-line profitability that will remain broadly stable,” Moody’s said.
The Emirates' economy rebounded strongly from the slowdown caused by Covid-19, growing by 7.9 per cent in 2022, the most in 11 years, to Dh1.62 trillion ($441 billion) at constant prices. It has maintained a robust growth momentum since.
The UAE economy is expected to grow by 5 per cent this year, driven by a robust expansion in the country's non-oil sector and increase in foreign direct investment, Minister of Economy Abdulla bin Touq told state news agency Wam last month.
The non-oil economy currently accounts for 73 per cent of the UAE’s GDP, which is a “historic first for the country”, he said.
Loan performance of banks will remain broadly stable, Moody’s said.
Problem loans will remain steady at around 4 per cent to 5 per cent as a proportion of total loans, as economic growth improves borrowers' repayment capacity and sustains “a still-sound mid-single-digit credit expansion”, it added.
Deposit growth will remain higher than credit demand, underpinning stable funding conditions.
UAE lenders' profitability is also projected to be stable as interest rates remain high and are not forecast to be cut before the second half of the year, according to Moody’s.
The UAE government is also expected to step in to support the country’s lenders in times of stress.
“We expect the UAE government's willingness and capacity to support UAE banks to remain very high, underpinned by local banks' dominance in the domestic financial system, the banking system's concentrated structure and the heavy footprint of the UAE government in most banks' balance sheets.”
Badis Shubailat, AVP-analyst at Moody's, said the change in outlook to positive for the UAE banking system comes as “Moody's projects real non-oil GDP will grow at a still robust 4.5 per cent in 2024, helped by high business confidence and structural reforms designed to increase the population and attract foreign investments”.
“Still, as elsewhere in the GCC region, an escalation of geopolitical tensions remains a risk,” he said.
The outlook for Saudi Arabia’s banking sector also remains positive amid the economic diversification agenda, Moody's said.
The demand for credit for government-backed projects is expected to improve loan performance and generate strong profit for banks in the Arab world's largest economy.
Saudi Arabia is investing heavily in its non-oil economy as part of its Vision 2030 strategy to diversify away from oil.
It is building a number of mega projects, including the $500 billion futuristic city Neom as well as Qiddiya, a huge entertainment and sports project in Riyadh, to support its ambitions.
The outlook for banks in other GCC countries including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar remains stable, according to the agency.
“Our banking outlooks across the Gulf Cooperation Council region reflect continued growth in the non-oil economy and supportive operating conditions,” said Nitish Bhojnagarwala, senior vice president andmanager at Moody’s.
The Bio
Hometown: Bogota, Colombia
Favourite place to relax in UAE: the desert around Al Mleiha in Sharjah or the eastern mangroves in Abu Dhabi
The one book everyone should read: 100 Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez. It will make your mind fly
Favourite documentary: Chasing Coral by Jeff Orlowski. It's a good reality check about one of the most valued ecosystems for humanity
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi
Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.
Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en
Results
6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah Group Two (PA) US$55,000 (Dirt) 1,600m; Winner: Rasi, Harry Bentley (jockey), Sulaiman Al Ghunaimi (trainer).
7.05pm: Meydan Trophy (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,900m; Winner: Ya Hayati, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Bochart, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar.
8.15pm: Balanchine Group Two (TB) $250,000 (T) 1,800m; Winner: Magic Lily, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,000m; Winner: Waady, Jim Crowley, Doug Watson.
9.25pm: Firebreak Stakes Group Three (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Capezzano, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer.
10pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m; Winner: Eynhallow, Mickael Barzalona, Charlie Appleby.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
The biog
Favourite food: Tabbouleh, greek salad and sushi
Favourite TV show: That 70s Show
Favourite animal: Ferrets, they are smart, sensitive, playful and loving
Favourite holiday destination: Seychelles, my resolution for 2020 is to visit as many spiritual retreats and animal shelters across the world as I can
Name of first pet: Eddy, a Persian cat that showed up at our home
Favourite dog breed: I love them all - if I had to pick Yorkshire terrier for small dogs and St Bernard's for big
Diriyah%20project%20at%20a%20glance
%3Cp%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%201.9km%20King%20Salman%20Boulevard%2C%20a%20Parisian%20Champs-Elysees-inspired%20avenue%2C%20is%20scheduled%20for%20completion%20in%202028%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20Royal%20Diriyah%20Opera%20House%20is%20expected%20to%20be%20completed%20in%20four%20years%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20Diriyah%E2%80%99s%20first%20of%2042%20hotels%2C%20the%20Bab%20Samhan%20hotel%2C%20will%20open%20in%20the%20first%20quarter%20of%202024%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20On%20completion%20in%202030%2C%20the%20Diriyah%20project%20is%20forecast%20to%20accommodate%20more%20than%20100%2C000%20people%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20The%20%2463.2%20billion%20Diriyah%20project%20will%20contribute%20%247.2%20billion%20to%20the%20kingdom%E2%80%99s%20GDP%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20It%20will%20create%20more%20than%20178%2C000%20jobs%20and%20aims%20to%20attract%20more%20than%2050%20million%20visits%20a%20year%0D%3Cbr%3E-%20About%202%2C000%20people%20work%20for%20the%20Diriyah%20Company%2C%20with%20more%20than%2086%20per%20cent%20being%20Saudi%20citizens%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Company profile
Date started: Founded in May 2017 and operational since April 2018
Founders: co-founder and chief executive, Doaa Aref; Dr Rasha Rady, co-founder and chief operating officer.
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: Health-tech
Size: 22 employees
Funding: Seed funding
Investors: Flat6labs, 500 Falcons, three angel investors
Skewed figures
In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458.
THE SPECS
2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid LE
Engine: 1.8 litre combined with 16-volt electric motors
Transmission: Automatic with manual shifting mode
Power: 121hp
Torque: 142Nm
Price: Dh95,900
LOVE%20AGAIN
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Jim%20Strouse%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStars%3A%20Priyanka%20Chopra%20Jonas%2C%20Sam%20Heughan%2C%20Celine%20Dion%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Bullet%20Train
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20David%20Leitch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Brad%20Pitt%2C%20Aaron%20Taylor-Johnson%2C%20Brian%20Tyree%20Henry%2C%20Sandra%20Bullock%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
