Banks in the broader Middle East and North Africa region could see $220 billion of funding outflows if Israel-Gaza war spreads to the wider region, however, lenders are well positioned to cope with the stress, S&P Global Ratings has said.
The potential external funding outflows from financial institutions in the six-member economic bloc of GCC, Jordan and Egypt are about 30 per cent of the tested systems’ aggregate external liabilities, S&P said in its latest report on Monday.
Under the base case scenario, S&P assumes that the war will remain centred in Israel and Gaza, However, if there is a wider regional escalation including through proxy conflicts, investors' risk perception of the Middle East may prompt some confidence-sensitive funds to leave, as seen during previous stress.
“The latest war between Hamas and Israel heightens global geopolitical risks with potential adverse implications for investor confidence and external funding flows,” Mohamed Damak, S&P managing director for financial institutions ratings, and analysts Dhruv Roy and Benjamin Young wrote in the joint report.
“There may be scenarios where the conflict widens, leading more risk-averse investors to withdraw funds from the region.”
The Israel-Gaza war, which has become a major humanitarian crisis, has created further uncertainty for a global economy that is feeling the effects of stubborn inflation and high borrowing costs.
The war that broke out on October 7 could have serious consequences for the Mena economies if it escalates beyond the borders of the besieged Gaza enclave.
The continuing bombardment has already devastated the Gazan economy as Israel continues to attack the narrow strip. If the unabated military campaign continues, it risk the tensions to flare further in the broader region as death toll of innocent civilians continues to rise on daily basis.
Travel and tourism sectors, a vital source of foreign exchange and a key driver of economies in most oil-importing Mena countries, is likely to take the biggest hit.
S&P said although the regional banking system’s external debt level has increased in some countries over the past few years, in most markets, those liabilities were recycled into external assets.
The banking system is currently in a net external asset position, it said.
S&P’s hypothetical scenarios, in case of a broader conflict, assumes a 50 per cent outflow of interbank liabilities, an outflow of 30 per cent for external liabilities and a 10 per cent outflow rate for capital market liabilities – since these are mainly medium to long-term instruments.
Where the breakdown of liabilities was not granular, an outflow of 50 per cent, which was the case for Egypt and Jordan, S&P said.
“To fund these outflows, banks will have to liquidate their external assets,” S&P analysts said. “In a stressed environment, such liquidation could result in lower valuations for these assets, a potential haircut of 10 per cent on interbank deposits.
Lenders may have to take a 20 per cent loss on investment portfolios abroad and a “100 per cent haircut on loans to non-residents and other assets, which we assume will be much more difficult to liquidate in a stress scenario”, analysts said.
“We applied these haircuts because we assume that banks may incur some reduction in the value of their assets if they want to liquidate them prematurely.”
Despite the distress caused by the potential escalation of the conflict to other regional economies, most banking systems can manage the outflows, with only Qatar, Egypt, and Jordan facing deficits.
“For Egypt, the shortfall is mainly related to the recent build-up of external debt in the banking system. While for Qatar, the impact appears very manageable given the government's track record of support to banks.”
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E666hp%20at%206%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E850Nm%20at%202%2C300-4%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EQ1%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Efrom%20Dh1.15%20million%20(estimate)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
AT%20A%20GLANCE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWindfall%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EAn%20%E2%80%9Cenergy%20profits%20levy%E2%80%9D%20to%20raise%20about%20%C2%A35%20billion%20in%20a%20year.%20The%20temporary%20one-off%20tax%20will%20hit%20oil%20and%20gas%20firms%20by%2025%20per%20cent%20on%20extraordinary%20profits.%20An%2080%20per%20cent%20investment%20allowance%20should%20calm%20Conservative%20nerves%20that%20the%20move%20will%20dent%20North%20Sea%20firms%E2%80%99%20investment%20to%20save%20them%2091p%20for%20every%20%C2%A31%20they%20spend.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EA%20universal%20grant%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EEnergy%20bills%20discount%2C%20which%20was%20effectively%20a%20%C2%A3200%20loan%2C%20has%20doubled%20to%20a%20%C2%A3400%20discount%20on%20bills%20for%20all%20households%20from%20October%20that%20will%20not%20need%20to%20be%20paid%20back.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETargeted%20measures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EMore%20than%20eight%20million%20of%20the%20lowest%20income%20households%20will%20receive%20a%20%C2%A3650%20one-off%20payment.%20It%20will%20apply%20to%20households%20on%20Universal%20Credit%2C%20Tax%20Credits%2C%20Pension%20Credit%20and%20legacy%20benefits.%3Cbr%3ESeparate%20one-off%20payments%20of%20%C2%A3300%20will%20go%20to%20pensioners%20and%20%C2%A3150%20for%20those%20receiving%20disability%20benefits.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Volvo ES90 Specs
Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)
Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp
Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm
On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region
Price: Exact regional pricing TBA
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Jawan
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAtlee%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Shah%20Rukh%20Khan%2C%20Nayanthara%2C%20Vijay%20Sethupathi%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Profile of Tarabut Gateway
Founder: Abdulla Almoayed
Based: UAE
Founded: 2017
Number of employees: 35
Sector: FinTech
Raised: $13 million
Backers: Berlin-based venture capital company Target Global, Kingsway, CE Ventures, Entrée Capital, Zamil Investment Group, Global Ventures, Almoayed Technologies and Mad’a Investment.
500 People from Gaza enter France
115 Special programme for artists
25 Evacuation of injured and sick
War 2
Director: Ayan Mukerji
Stars: Hrithik Roshan, NTR, Kiara Advani, Ashutosh Rana
Rating: 2/5
What sanctions would be reimposed?
Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:
- An arms embargo
- A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
- A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
- Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
World Cup final
Who: France v Croatia
When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
TV: Game will be shown live on BeIN Sports for viewers in the Mena region
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
