Banks in the GCC, particularly in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, will record stronger profitability this year on the back of higher net interest margins and lower-cost business models amid booming non-oil economic growth in the region.
While credit growth has slowed due to rising interest rates, robust gross domestic product growth in the non-oil sectors of Gulf countries will provide support to lenders in the region, S&P Global Ratings said in a report on Tuesday.
GCC banks' return on assets “will improve in 2023, mainly due to higher margins and still satisfactory, albeit lower, lending growth in some GCC countries”, the report said.
UAE banks, in particular, will benefit from non-oil GDP growth, which will “somewhat mitigate the negative effect of higher interest rates on credit growth”.
“We expect UAE banks' credit growth will improve to approximately 7 per cent in 2023, compared with 5 per cent in 2022,” the report said.
The UAE's economy, the Arab world's second-largest, grew by 3.8 per cent on an annual basis to Dh418.3 billion ($113.9 billion) in the first quarter of this year amid its push for diversification, officials said last month.
That was boosted by non-oil GDP, which rose 4.5 per cent year on year to Dh312 billion.
“We expect the UAE will report strong non-oil GDP growth of 6 per cent in 2023. This, in combination with recoveries from provisions booked in the past two years, will reduce UAE banks' credit costs in 2023, compared with 2022,” S&P said.
UAE banks' performance improved in the first half of 2023, on the back of lower credit losses and higher interest rates.
“We expect higher interest rates will continue to support banks' profitability and, in combination with still high non interest-bearing deposits, will moderate the increase in the cost of funding. The recovery of the non-oil sector has led to higher lending growth, compared with 2022.”
Meanwhile, in Saudi Arabia, higher interest rates will reduce banks' total lending growth to about 10 per cent this year, from 14 per cent in 2022, the report said.
But credit growth will remain strong on the back of the kingdom's Vision 2030 programme, which aims to diversify the country's economy away from oil.
“While higher interest rates will decrease Saudi banks' total lending growth, Vision 2030-related projects will keep credit growth well above the GCC average rate of 4 per cent in 2023,” S&P said.
“Increased corporate lending, higher interest rates, and portfolio seasoning will likely lead to an slight increase in non-performing loans and credit costs. Yet, Saudi banks' asset quality metrics will remain better than the peer average, due to a high exposure to government-backed mortgage lending,” it added.
Additionally, robust return on equity will support capital buffers, it said.
Saudi banks are also expected to achieve a return on assets of 2.2 per cent in 2023, compared with the GCC average of 1.8 per cent.
Saudi Arabia's economy grew by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year, a slightly faster pace than the initial estimates, driven by a sharp expansion in the non-oil sector of the Arab world's biggest economy.
The kingdom’s gross domestic product at current prices reached 970 billion Saudi riyals ($258.66 billion) in the three months to the end of June, with the non-oil sector up by 6.1 per cent on an annual basis, the General Authority for Statistics said this month.
In Kuwait, higher interest rates will reduce bank's credit growth to about 3 per cent, from almost 8 per cent in 2022, S&P said.
“We expect higher interest rates will lead to lower demand from corporate and retail borrowers, which will translate into low single-digit loan growth for the banking sector,” it said.
While Kuwait's banking sector is well positioned to benefit from the higher-for-longer interest rate environment, the boost from net interest income will be “somewhat offset” by the migration from non interest-bearing to interest-bearing deposits and increasing credit losses.
However, the banking sector's funding profile “continues to benefit from a strong local deposit base and a net external asset position. This translates into positive investor sentiment”, the report added.
Overall, while higher interest rates and Opec oil production cuts will constrain short-term growth prospects, non-oil growth and, consequently, credit growth in the UAE and Saudi Arabia remain robust, S&P said.
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
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Director: S Shankar
Producer: Lyca Productions; presented by Dharma Films
Cast: Rajnikanth, Akshay Kumar, Amy Jackson, Sudhanshu Pandey
Rating: 3.5/5 stars
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
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Sting & Shaggy
44/876
(Interscope)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, second leg result:
Ajax 2-3 Tottenham
Tottenham advance on away goals rule after tie ends 3-3 on aggregate
Final: June 1, Madrid
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Hydrogen: Market potential
Hydrogen has an estimated $11 trillion market potential, according to Bank of America Securities and is expected to generate $2.5tn in direct revenues and $11tn of indirect infrastructure by 2050 as its production increases six-fold.
"We believe we are reaching the point of harnessing the element that comprises 90 per cent of the universe, effectively and economically,” the bank said in a recent report.
Falling costs of renewable energy and electrolysers used in green hydrogen production is one of the main catalysts for the increasingly bullish sentiment over the element.
The cost of electrolysers used in green hydrogen production has halved over the last five years and will fall to 60 to 90 per cent by the end of the decade, acceding to Haim Israel, equity strategist at Merrill Lynch. A global focus on decarbonisation and sustainability is also a big driver in its development.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Company profile
Company name: Suraasa
Started: 2018
Founders: Rishabh Khanna, Ankit Khanna and Sahil Makker
Based: India, UAE and the UK
Industry: EdTech
Initial investment: More than $200,000 in seed funding
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
More on animal trafficking
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Who has been sanctioned?
Daniella Weiss and Nachala
Described as 'the grandmother of the settler movement', she has encouraged the expansion of settlements for decades. The 79 year old leads radical settler movement Nachala, whose aim is for Israel to annex Gaza and the occupied West Bank, where it helps settlers built outposts.
Harel Libi & Libi Construction and Infrastructure
Libi has been involved in threatening and perpetuating acts of aggression and violence against Palestinians. His firm has provided logistical and financial support for the establishment of illegal outposts.
Zohar Sabah
Runs a settler outpost named Zohar’s Farm and has previously faced charges of violence against Palestinians. He was indicted by Israel’s State Attorney’s Office in September for allegedly participating in a violent attack against Palestinians and activists in the West Bank village of Muarrajat.
Coco’s Farm and Neria’s Farm
These are illegal outposts in the West Bank, which are at the vanguard of the settler movement. According to the UK, they are associated with people who have been involved in enabling, inciting, promoting or providing support for activities that amount to “serious abuse”.
'Cheb%20Khaled'
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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Japan
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RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Omania, Saif Al Balushi (jockey), Ibrahim Al Hadhrami (trainer)
5.30pm: Conditions (PA) Dh85,000 1,600m
Winner: Brehaan, Richard Mullen, Ana Mendez
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh100,000 1,600m
Winner: Craving, Connor Beasley, Simon Crisford
6.30pm: The President’s Cup Prep (PA) Dh100,000 2,200m
Winner: Rmmas, Tadhg O’Shea, Jean de Roualle
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup (PA) Dh70,000 1,200m
Winner: Dahess D’Arabie, Connor Beasley, Helal Al Alawi
7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 1,400m
Winner: Fertile De Croate, Sam Hitchcott, Ibrahim Aseel
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
FIXTURES
December 28
Stan Wawrinka v Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Milos Raonic v Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm
December 29 - semi-finals
Rafael Nadal v Stan Wawrinka / Pablo Carreno Busta, 5pm
Novak Djokovic v Milos Raonic / Dominic Thiem, no earlier then 7pm
December 30
3rd/4th place play-off, 5pm
Final, 7pm
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
ICC Awards for 2021
MEN
Cricketer of the Year – Shaheen Afridi (Pakistan)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Mohammad Rizwan (Pakistan)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Babar Azam (Pakistan)
Test Cricketer of the Year – Joe Root (England)
WOMEN
Cricketer of the Year – Smriti Mandhana (India)
ODI Cricketer of the Year – Lizelle Lee (South Africa)
T20 Cricketer of the Year – Tammy Beaumont (England)
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
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The%20trailblazers
%3Cp%3ESixteen%20boys%20and%2015%20girls%20have%20gone%20on%20from%20Go-Pro%20Academy%20in%20Dubai%20to%20either%20professional%20contracts%20abroad%20or%20scholarships%20in%20the%20United%20States.%20Here%20are%20two%20of%20the%20most%20prominent.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EGeorgia%20Gibson%20(Newcastle%20United)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20reason%20the%20academy%20in%20Dubai%20first%20set%20up%20a%20girls%E2%80%99%20programme%20was%20to%20help%20Gibson%20reach%20her%20potential.%20Now%20she%20plays%20professionally%20for%20Newcastle%20United%20in%20the%20UK.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMackenzie%20Hunt%20(Everton)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EAttended%20DESS%20in%20Dubai%2C%20before%20heading%20to%20the%20UK%20to%20join%20Everton%20full%20time%20as%20a%20teenager.%20He%20was%20on%20the%20bench%20for%20the%20first%20team%20as%20recently%20as%20their%20fixture%20against%20Brighton%20on%20February%2024.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to help
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
ENGLAND TEAM
Alastair Cook, Mark Stoneman, James Vince, Joe Root (captain), Dawid Malan, Jonny Bairstow, Moeen Ali, Chris Woakes, Craig Overton, Stuart Broad, James Anderson
MATCH INFO
English Premiership semi-finals
Saracens 57
Wasps 33
Exeter Chiefs 36
Newcastle Falcons 5
Sinopharm vaccine explained
The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades.
“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.
"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."
This is then injected into the body.
"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.
"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."
The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.
Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.
“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.
The five pillars of Islam
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Scorecard
Scotland 220
K Coetzer 95, J Siddique 3-49, R Mustafa 3-35
UAE 224-3 in 43,5 overs
C Suri 67, B Hameed 63 not out
Recycle Reuse Repurpose
New central waste facility on site at expo Dubai South area to handle estimated 173 tonne of waste generated daily by millions of visitors
Recyclables such as plastic, paper, glass will be collected from bins on the expo site and taken to the new expo Central Waste Facility on site
Organic waste will be processed at the new onsite Central Waste Facility, treated and converted into compost to be re-used to green the expo area
Of 173 tonnes of waste daily, an estimated 39 per cent will be recyclables, 48 per cent organic waste and 13 per cent general waste.
About 147 tonnes will be recycled and converted to new products at another existing facility in Ras Al Khor
Recycling at Ras Al Khor unit:
Plastic items to be converted to plastic bags and recycled
Paper pulp moulded products such as cup carriers, egg trays, seed pots, and food packaging trays
Glass waste into bowls, lights, candle holders, serving trays and coasters
Aim is for 85 per cent of waste from the site to be diverted from landfill
