Global deliveries for narrow-body jets will lead the post-pandemic fleet recovery in the next 10 years as airlines adjust to the realities of a smaller travel market, a new report shows.
Single-aisle aircraft deliveries are expected to hold up reasonably well, with cumulative deliveries approximately 90 per cent of pre-Covid expectations over the 10 years, according to management consultancy Oliver Wyman's Global Fleet and MRO Forecast 2021‑2031.
Deliveries will be bolstered by the US and European aviation regulators' decision to recertify the Boeing 737 Max for commercial service and by sales of the long-range Airbus A321LR, it said.
"For years, the narrow-body share of the total fleet has increased as the improving range capability and attractive seat mile efficiency of the class have made the aircraft the choice of low-cost carriers," the report said. "This trend is expected to continue as more airlines align fleets to the demand realities of Covid-19."
While the aviation industry has pinned its hope for recovery on the Covid-19 vaccine, infection flare-ups and mutant variants of the virus have have dashed its prospects for a steady return of scheduled flights as governments impose tighter travel restrictions.
At its lowest point during the pandemic, the global fleet had only about 13,000 aircraft in service, less than half the number flying in January 2020, when the outbreak began to spread.
At the beginning of 2021, the fleet rose to more than 23,700 aircraft. By 2031, Oliver Wyman forecasts the fleet will number more than 36,500.
However, this is well below pre-Covid projections, which put the 2021 global fleet at 28,800 and the 2030 fleet at more than 39,000.
As the largest aircraft class, narrow-bodies make up 60 per cent of the global fleet, up from 58 per cent at the start of 2020. With expected average growth of 3.5 per cent annually over the next 10 years from its pre-Covid size, the narrow-body share of the global fleet will expand to 65 per cent by 2031, the report showed.
By contrast, widebody aircraft's share of the global fleet will drop almost two percentage points over the next decade, with average annual growth of just 1.6 per cent anticipated for the widebody fleet over the forecast period, the report said.
This is due to falloff in international and business travel driven by changing corporate travel policies and government restrictions, the authors said.
Long-haul travel, on which wide-body aircraft such as the Airbus A380 or Boeing 747 is deployed, is expected to be the slowest segment to recover, according to the International Air Travel Association (Iata).
Airlines will not recover to 2019 levels of operations until at least 2022, with recovery in parts of the aerospace market lagging by a year or two, according to Oliver Wyman.
Iata expects it will take until 2024 for passenger traffic to return to pre-crisis levels.
For consumers, the slow recovery may mean fewer direct and less frequent routes — at least until the pandemic is under control and normal economic activity returns.
"Covid has created a long list of challenges never seen before in modern commercial aviation," Tom Cooper, an Oliver Wyman vice president and one of the authors of the report, said. "It will take the next few years for the fleet to adjust and return to stable growth, but even after 10 years, the industry will never fully regain all that it has lost from the pandemic."
With cash preservation the top priority for airlines, aerospace manufacturers and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) service providers are under pressure.
Fewer aircraft flying means fewer planes need to be produced or repaired.
The impact of Covid on the MRO market will also be significant -- both in the short and long term.
Short term, demand in 2020 and 2021 is expected to be 33 per cent, or $60 billion, below pre-Covid projections for the combined two years, the report said. Over the next 10 years, the industry will lose more than $95bn in revenue compared with pre-Covid expectations.
The biog
Favourite colour: Brown
Favourite Movie: Resident Evil
Hobbies: Painting, Cooking, Imitating Voices
Favourite food: Pizza
Trivia: Was the voice of three characters in the Emirati animation, Shaabiyat Al Cartoon
if you go
The flights
Etihad, Emirates and Singapore Airlines fly direct from the UAE to Singapore from Dh2,265 return including taxes. The flight takes about 7 hours.
The hotel
Rooms at the M Social Singapore cost from SG $179 (Dh488) per night including taxes.
The tour
Makan Makan Walking group tours costs from SG $90 (Dh245) per person for about three hours. Tailor-made tours can be arranged. For details go to www.woknstroll.com.sg
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4,872 matches
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The biog
Hobbies: Writing and running
Favourite sport: beach volleyball
Favourite holiday destinations: Turkey and Puerto Rico
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• Scientists estimate there could be as many as 3 million fungal species globally
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• Fungi account for roughly 90% of Earth's unknown biodiversity
• Forest fungi help tackle climate change, absorbing up to 36% of global fossil fuel emissions annually and storing around 5 billion tonnes of carbon in the planet's topsoil
In numbers: China in Dubai
The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000
Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000
Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000
Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
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Rating: 3/5
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Spain drain
CONVICTED
Lionel Messi Found guilty in 2016 of of using companies in Belize, Britain, Switzerland and Uruguay to avoid paying €4.1m in taxes on income earned from image rights. Sentenced to 21 months in jail and fined more than €2m. But prison sentence has since been replaced by another fine of €252,000.
Javier Mascherano Accepted one-year suspended sentence in January 2016 for tax fraud after found guilty of failing to pay €1.5m in taxes for 2011 and 2012. Unlike Messi he avoided trial by admitting to tax evasion.
Angel di Maria Argentina and Paris Saint-Germain star Angel di Maria was fined and given a 16-month prison sentence for tax fraud during his time at Real Madrid. But he is unlikely to go to prison as is normal in Spain for first offences for non-violent crimes carrying sentence of less than two years.
SUSPECTED
Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid's star striker, accused of evading €14.7m in taxes, appears in court on Monday. Portuguese star faces four charges of fraud through offshore companies.
Jose Mourinho Manchester United manager accused of evading €3.3m in tax in 2011 and 2012, during time in charge at Real Madrid. But Gestifute, which represents him, says he has already settled matter with Spanish tax authorities.
Samuel Eto'o In November 2016, Spanish prosecutors sought jail sentence of 10 years and fines totalling €18m for Cameroonian, accused of failing to pay €3.9m in taxes during time at Barcelona from 2004 to 2009.
Radamel Falcao Colombian striker Falcao suspected of failing to correctly declare €7.4m of income earned from image rights between 2012 and 2013 while at Atletico Madrid. He has since paid €8.2m to Spanish tax authorities, a sum that includes interest on the original amount.
Jorge Mendes Portuguese super-agent put under official investigation last month by Spanish court investigating alleged tax evasion by Falcao, a client of his. He defended himself, telling closed-door hearing he "never" advised players in tax matters.
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
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MATCH INFO
Watford 1 (Deulofeu 80' p)
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Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened.
He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia.
Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”.
Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
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Four tips to secure IoT networks
Mohammed Abukhater, vice president at FireEye in the Middle East, said:
- Keep device software up-to-date. Most come with basic operating system, so users should ensure that they always have the latest version
- Besides a strong password, use two-step authentication. There should be a second log-in step like adding a code sent to your mobile number
- Usually smart devices come with many unnecessary features. Users should lock those features that are not required or used frequently
- Always create a different guest network for visitors
