European airport passenger traffic will return to pre-coronavirus levels by 2023 at the earliest and the pace of recovery will vary across the sector, Moody's Investors Service said.
Domestic flights are expected to recover faster than international trips, with European short-haul travel picking up before long-haul, the ratings agency said.
"Cuts in investment and operating costs will support cash flow and limit the increase in airports’ debt burden,” said Joanna Fic, senior vice president at Moody's.
The forecast is in line with a Moody's prediction about two weeks ago that airline passenger demand around the world will recover to pre-pandemic levels at the end of 2023, and only if effective vaccines are available.
The rapid and widening spread of the deadly outbreak devastated the global aviation industry as governments took measures to restrict international and domestic travel, while banning non-essential travel.
As a result, all European airports experienced a substantial disruption in operations, with traffic declines of up to 100 per cent in the April to May period, compared with the previous year.
European airports rated by Moody's reported a 64 per cent decline in traffic in the first half of the year, with passenger volume down by 250 million compared to the same period in 2019.
The impact of the reduction in air travel on European airports will vary depending on location, airline customers and the type of traffic served, according to Moody's.
The agency examined various scenarios of recovery and predicted that this year's traffic at airports in Europe will be about 60 per cent lower than 2019 levels. Passenger volumes are forecast to drop by almost 35 per cent next year.
Air travel restrictions been gradually lifted in most European countries since June, prompting airlines to restart or increase capacity during the summer season.
"As a result, we expect flight activity to gradually resume in the second half of 2020 and continue to increase in 2021," Moody's said.
Airports with significant domestic and EU traffic will recover more quickly than those that cater to international travel.
"The expected faster recovery in domestic air traffic reflects the lack of effective alternative modes of transport, with Norway and Spain being good examples," the report said.
"Domestic traffic will also benefit from behavioural changes, at least in the near term, as less people are likely to travel abroad for their holiday."
However, Moody's issued a warning that a recovery in domestic air travel depends on the containment of the virus and local economic conditions.
Airports with a higher proportion of long-haul international traffic will take longer to recover, despite travel restrictions to some non-EU countries being eased, the agency said.
That is because travellers are expected to favour short-haul flights over long-haul travel initially, even if the outbreak is contained.
Leisure travel is more likely to recover faster than business travel, which is expected to be affected by changes to work patterns, the use of technology and a focus by companies on cost reductions, it said.
Key fixtures from January 5-7
Watford v Bristol City
Liverpool v Everton
Brighton v Crystal Palace
Bournemouth v AFC Fylde or Wigan
Coventry v Stoke City
Nottingham Forest v Arsenal
Manchester United v Derby
Forest Green or Exeter v West Brom
Tottenham v AFC Wimbledon
Fleetwood or Hereford v Leicester City
Manchester City v Burnley
Shrewsbury v West Ham United
Wolves v Swansea City
Newcastle United v Luton Town
Fulham v Southampton
Norwich City v Chelsea
More coverage from the Future Forum
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Brief scoreline:
Toss: South Africa, elected to bowl first
England (311-8): Stokes 89, Morgan 57, Roy 54, Root 51; Ngidi 3-66
South Africa (207): De Kock 68, Van der Dussen 50; Archer 3-27, Stokes 2-12
MATCH INFO
Euro 2020 qualifier
Fixture: Liechtenstein v Italy, Tuesday, 10.45pm (UAE)
TV: Match is shown on BeIN Sports
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RESULT
Kolkata Knight Riders 169-7 (20 ovs)
Rajasthan Royals 144-4 (20 ovs)
Kolkata win by 25 runs
Next match
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Kolkata Knight Riders, Friday, 5.30pm
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
What is a Ponzi scheme?
A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.
Dhadak 2
Director: Shazia Iqbal
Starring: Siddhant Chaturvedi, Triptii Dimri
Rating: 1/5
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The biog
DOB: 25/12/92
Marital status: Single
Education: Post-graduate diploma in UAE Diplomacy and External Affairs at the Emirates Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: I love fencing, I used to fence at the MK Fencing Academy but I want to start again. I also love reading and writing
Lifelong goal: My dream is to be a state minister
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Mobile phone packages comparison
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The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Tips for job-seekers
- Do not submit your application through the Easy Apply button on LinkedIn. Employers receive between 600 and 800 replies for each job advert on the platform. If you are the right fit for a job, connect to a relevant person in the company on LinkedIn and send them a direct message.
- Make sure you are an exact fit for the job advertised. If you are an HR manager with five years’ experience in retail and the job requires a similar candidate with five years’ experience in consumer, you should apply. But if you have no experience in HR, do not apply for the job.
David Mackenzie, founder of recruitment agency Mackenzie Jones Middle East
Company profile
Date started: December 24, 2018
Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer
Based: Dubai Media City
Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)
Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech
Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year
Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020
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Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
“There are a few shoes that have ‘grail’ status for me. But the one I have always wanted is the Nike x Patta x Parra Air Max 1 - Cherrywood. To get a pair in my size brand new is would cost me between Dh8,000 and Dh 10,000.” Jack Brett
“If I had all the money, I would approach Nike and ask them to do my own Air Force 1, that’s one of my dreams.” Yaseen Benchouche
“There’s nothing out there yet that I’d pay an insane amount for, but I’d love to create my own shoe with Tinker Hatfield and Jordan.” Joshua Cox
“I think I’d buy a defunct footwear brand; I’d like the challenge of reinterpreting a brand’s history and changing options.” Kris Balerite
“I’d stir up a creative collaboration with designers Martin Margiela of the mixed patchwork sneakers, and Yohji Yamamoto.” Hussain Moloobhoy
“If I had all the money in the world, I’d live somewhere where I’d never have to wear shoes again.” Raj Malhotra
Expo details
Expo 2020 Dubai will be the first World Expo to be held in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia
The world fair will run for six months from October 20, 2020 to April 10, 2021.
It is expected to attract 25 million visits
Some 70 per cent visitors are projected to come from outside the UAE, the largest proportion of international visitors in the 167-year history of World Expos.
More than 30,000 volunteers are required for Expo 2020
The site covers a total of 4.38 sqkm, including a 2 sqkm gated area
It is located adjacent to Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai South
The specs
Engine: 2.3-litre, turbo four-cylinder
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Power: 300hp
Torque: 420Nm
Price: Dh189,900
On sale: now
The bio
Favourite book: Peter Rabbit. I used to read it to my three children and still read it myself. If I am feeling down it brings back good memories.
Best thing about your job: Getting to help people. My mum always told me never to pass up an opportunity to do a good deed.
Best part of life in the UAE: The weather. The constant sunshine is amazing and there is always something to do, you have so many options when it comes to how to spend your day.
Favourite holiday destination: Malaysia. I went there for my honeymoon and ended up volunteering to teach local children for a few hours each day. It is such a special place and I plan to retire there one day.
Going grey? A stylist's advice
If you’re going to go grey, a great style, well-cared for hair (in a sleek, classy style, like a bob), and a young spirit and attitude go a long way, says Maria Dowling, founder of the Maria Dowling Salon in Dubai.
It’s easier to go grey from a lighter colour, so you may want to do that first. And this is the time to try a shorter style, she advises. Then a stylist can introduce highlights, start lightening up the roots, and let it fade out. Once it’s entirely grey, a purple shampoo will prevent yellowing.
“Get professional help – there’s no other way to go around it,” she says. “And don’t just let it grow out because that looks really bad. Put effort into it: properly condition, straighten, get regular trims, make sure it’s glossy.”
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
Salah in numbers
€39 million: Liverpool agreed a fee, including add-ons, in the region of €39m (nearly Dh176m) to sign Salah from Roma last year. The exchange rate at the time meant that cost the Reds £34.3m - a bargain given his performances since.
13: The 25-year-old player was not a complete stranger to the Premier League when he arrived at Liverpool this summer. However, during his previous stint at Chelsea, he made just 13 Premier League appearances, seven of which were off the bench, and scored only twice.
57: It was in the 57th minute of his Liverpool bow when Salah opened his account for the Reds in the 3-3 draw with Watford back in August. The Egyptian prodded the ball over the line from close range after latching onto Roberto Firmino's attempted lob.
7: Salah's best scoring streak of the season occurred between an FA Cup tie against West Brom on January 27 and a Premier League win over Newcastle on March 3. He scored for seven games running in all competitions and struck twice against Tottenham.
3: This season Salah became the first player in Premier League history to win the player of the month award three times during a term. He was voted as the division's best player in November, February and March.
40: Salah joined Roger Hunt and Ian Rush as the only players in Liverpool's history to have scored 40 times in a single season when he headed home against Bournemouth at Anfield earlier this month.
30: The goal against Bournemouth ensured the Egyptian achieved another milestone in becoming the first African player to score 30 times across one Premier League campaign.
8: As well as his fine form in England, Salah has also scored eight times in the tournament phase of this season's Champions League. Only Real Madrid's Cristiano Ronaldo, with 15 to his credit, has found the net more often in the group stages and knockout rounds of Europe's premier club competition.
Tips for taking the metro
- set out well ahead of time
- make sure you have at least Dh15 on you Nol card, as there could be big queues for top-up machines
- enter the right cabin. The train may be too busy to move between carriages once you're on
- don't carry too much luggage and tuck it under a seat to make room for fellow passengers
