More airlines could have collapsed or consolidated globally without government intervention amid the Covid-19 pandemic and the aviation industry will see a decline in passenger traffic as well as the number of aircraft used by carriers once the crisis subsides, Emirates president Tim Clark said.
"It might have happened had there not been massive state intervention over the last months," Mr Clark said in an interview with The National. "You would have seen companies that would have ordinarily sought to merge, amalgamate with others to relieve themselves jointly of the financial predicament they face.
Had the natural laws of supply and demand survival of the fittest worked, I think we would have seen the culling of many airlines.
“That would have happened, but then of course things started to accelerate, and the financial state of the business became exponentially bad. The first port of call was not to each other but to either to the shareholders and or to the states to intervene and that is clearly what has happened.”
Airlines across the globe are facing severe liquidity problems after the pandemic triggered country movement restriction measures and crushed air travel demand.
Carriers are taking unprecedented measures to protect their existence with dramatic capacity reductions and preserving cash as revenue withers. Last month, 10 US airlines reached an agreement with the American government to accept financial support from the $58 billion (Dh213bn) allocated for carriers out of the $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus approved in March.
Meanwhile, Air France-KLM is set to receive €7bn (Dh28.04bn) in the form of loans and loan guarantees from the French government and the Dutch government has pledged another €2-€4bn of loans and guarantees to KLM.
“Had the natural laws of supply and demand survival of the fittest worked, I think we would have seen the culling of many airlines. I thought about 85 per cent would go bust had there been no state intervention,” Mr Clark said.
“There wasn’t room for more consolidation,” he added. “State intervention has kept that from happening and it has stopped some of the smaller carriers going out of existence. How long that will go on for I don’t know. I am still not optimistic about the survivability of quite a few carriers.”
The International Air Transport Association (Iata) estimates airlines will lose $314bn in revenue this year – 55 per cent less than 2019, due to the coronavirus impact – and will require $200bn in government aid. Iata has urged governments to quickly implement pledges of financial support for carriers, warning that 25 million jobs are at risk in a scenario where three months of travel restrictions are combined with a plunge in air travel demand.
Mr Clark said he views the pandemic as a black swan event for the airline industry.
“I think that is what’s best describes it in my experience," he said in response to the characterisation.
"If you go back to any of the major interventions, disruptions that the world has faced since the Second World War; if you took the aggregate of all of those, they wouldn’t be the equivalent to what has happened here," Mr Clark added. "It’s hugely serious and it’s devastating for the business. I don’t see any way forward at the moment.”
Global passenger demand for air travel more than halved in March, the biggest slump in more than a decade, according to Iata. Passenger demand, measured in total revenue passenger kilometres, or RPKs, fell 53 per cent from the same period a year earlier. In seasonally adjusted terms, global passenger volumes slumped to their lowest level in 14 years.
“March was a disastrous month for aviation,” Alexandre de Juniac, Iata’s director general and chief executive, said last month, adding that conditions have further deteriorated in April and most signs point to a slow recovery.
Mr Clark said demand for air travel will be subdued for the coming years due to the fallout from the crisis.
“We have just got to accept that in the next year or two, perhaps a bit longer, demand for air travel is going to be tempered in many respects,” he said. “What emerges from this will be in my view almost perhaps 20 or 30 per cent less than what we were experiencing prior to the coronavirus kicking in.”
Mr Clark was unsure of an industry rebound this summer in July and August, on the back of heavy hotel discounts and people wanting to travel before schools resume in September, as Michael O'Leary the chief executive of Ryanair alluded to in the past week.
“It’s anybody’s guess as to what is going to happen, what people will do this summer,” he said. “Frankly if it was me, I’d write it off, and if you get anything good for you, that’s great. But don’t think it’s going to come back like a tsunami because I don’t think it will.”
On the future of air travel and passenger traffic trends, Mr Clark said the industry is set to change.
“The nature of the segmentation, the demand characteristics of all the segments that for instance Emirates carries and others carry, they’re going to change. They are changing,” he said.
“So, what will emerge from this will be quite interesting. How it pans out what the type, the size and fit of an asset to a residual network of some of the carriers will be, is anyone’s guess," he said.
"One thing is for sure, the network carriers, and to an extent the domestic carriers, are all having a major rethink as to what is likely to happen," he added. "Demand will fall in the time being, the demand for the number of aeroplanes flying prior to the coronavirus will also fall, airlines will ground old aircraft and concentrate on some of the new ones coming to market.”
Asked if the downturn of the global economy, which is set to slide into the deepest recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and projections for lower passenger traffic following the crisis, will reduce the appetite of carriers for wide-body planes, Mr Clark said that is likely.
“We know the A380 is over, the 747 is over but the A350 and the 787 will always have a place. They may not be ordered soon, they may have orders deferred and pushed back, but eventually they will come back, and they will be a better fit probably for global demand in the years post the pandemic,” he said.
“Do I see demand for these bigger aircraft slowing, yes I do,” he added. “The numbers I would suggest will be lower in the next three to five years and I think Boeing and Airbus recognise that and are already slowing their production now. You can’t fly from Dubai to San Francisco in a 737 non-stop but you can on a 787 and you can on an A350 and very comfortably.”
The idea of reconfiguring planes, removing seats on planes or permanently factoring in spacing requirements in the future – in line with social distancing measures – is untenable and not sustainable, Mr Clark said.
“My view is basically two-fold. One, it wouldn’t surprise me if this virus disappeared completely by the end of summer. But if it doesn’t, then the pursuit of the vaccine is the only way we are going to be able to deal with it when it comes to international travel, and to some extent hospitality and other kinds of transport,” Mr Clark said.
“My own view, my gut feel is telling me that by the summer of next year we could be well on our way to mass global inoculation … and therefore things will change. If that happens all this business about spacing on aeroplanes, on buses, trains and restaurants and hotels goes away,” he added. “In the meantime of course, as long as this is going on, and if it’s another year then we are going to have to live with the agonies as far as air transport is concerned … with countries … taking down lockdown procedures.”
Mr Clark was set to retire from Emirates at the end of June 2020 after more than three decades with the airline, which has played a seminal role in the development of Dubai’s economy and anchoring the emirate as a commercial and international travel hub.
He declined to say if he was extending his stay at the carrier, but said the airline has a well-equipped team to navigate the future following his departure.
“At the moment my concentration is trying to find a way through this pretty difficult situation. I have basically said I will stay for the time that it takes the management group that I am working with to get a way forward and then we’ll see after that how it goes on,” Mr Clark said.
“I am probably fairly useful still because I have the experience and my instincts; generally when we’re up against it, I tend to fall back on my instincts and very often I’m pleased to say they got us out of the hole,” he added.
“It’s not just about me, it's about the government who is the owner of Emirates. When the time is right, and I think everything is OK I will just carry on [with my plans]. We have a good team of people … they have worked with me for a long time, they know the way. It’s a difficult one because no one has been in this position ever in the airline industry today.”
Results
ATP Dubai Championships on Monday (x indicates seed):
First round
Roger Federer (SUI x2) bt Philipp Kohlschreiber (GER) 6-4, 3-6, 6-1
Fernando Verdasco (ESP) bt Thomas Fabbiano (ITA) 3-6, 6-3, 6-2
Marton Fucsovics (HUN) bt Damir Dzumhur (BIH) 6-1, 7-6 (7/5)
Nikoloz Basilashvili (GEO) bt Karen Khachanov (RUS x4) 6-4, 6-1
Jan-Lennard Struff (GER) bt Milos Raonic (CAN x7) 6-4, 5-7, 6-4
The Cairo Statement
1: Commit to countering all types of terrorism and extremism in all their manifestations
2: Denounce violence and the rhetoric of hatred
3: Adhere to the full compliance with the Riyadh accord of 2014 and the subsequent meeting and executive procedures approved in 2014 by the GCC
4: Comply with all recommendations of the Summit between the US and Muslim countries held in May 2017 in Saudi Arabia.
5: Refrain from interfering in the internal affairs of countries and of supporting rogue entities.
6: Carry out the responsibility of all the countries with the international community to counter all manifestations of extremism and terrorism that threaten international peace and security
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Women & Power: A Manifesto
Mary Beard
Profile Books and London Review of Books
MATCH INFO
Tottenham Hotspur 0 Everton 1 (Calvert-Lewin 55')
Man of the Match Allan (Everton)
More on animal trafficking
The five pillars of Islam
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
Mumbai Indians 213/6 (20 ov)
Royal Challengers Bangalore 167/8 (20 ov)
SM Town Live is on Friday, April 6 at Autism Rocks Arena, Dubai. Tickets are Dh375 at www.platinumlist.net
THE SPECS
Engine: 4.0L twin-turbo V8
Gearbox: eight-speed automatic
Power: 571hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,000-4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.4L/100km
Price, base: from Dh571,000
On sale: this week
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
Pari
Produced by: Clean Slate Films (Anushka Sharma, Karnesh Sharma) & KriArj Entertainment
Director: Prosit Roy
Starring: Anushka Sharma, Parambrata Chattopadhyay, Ritabhari Chakraborty, Rajat Kapoor, Mansi Multani
Three stars
MATCH DETAILS
Manchester United 3
Greenwood (21), Martial (33), Rashford (49)
Partizan Belgrade 0
NBA FINALS SO FAR
(Toronto lead 3-2 in best-of-seven series)
Game 1 Raptors 118 Warriors 109
Game 2 Raptors 104 Warriors 109
Game 3 Warriors 109 Raptors 123
Game 4 Warriors 92 Raptors 105
Game 5 Raptors 105 Warriors 106
Game 6 Thursday, at Oakland
Game 7 Sunday, at Toronto (if needed)
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
- Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
- Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
- The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
- Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
- It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
- Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
- Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
A Bad Moms Christmas
Dir: John Lucas and Scott Moore
Starring: Mila Kunis, Kathryn Hahn, Kristen Bell, Susan Sarandon, Christine Baranski, Cheryl Hines
Two stars
Donating your hair
• Your hair should be least 30 cms long, as some of the hair is lost during manufacturing of the wigs.
• Clean, dry hair in good condition (no split ends) from any gender, and of any natural colour, is required.
• Straight, wavy, curly, permed or chemically straightened is permitted.
• Dyed hair must be of a natural colour
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
Specs
Engine: Duel electric motors
Power: 659hp
Torque: 1075Nm
On sale: Available for pre-order now
Price: On request
SHADOWS%20AND%20LIGHT%3A%20THE%20EXTRAORDINARY%20LIFE%20OF%20JAMES%20MCBEY
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Alasdair%20Soussi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20300%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%20Scotland%20Street%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAvailable%3A%20December%201%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The five pillars of Islam
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Sri Lanka v England
First Test, at Galle
England won by 211
Second Test, at Kandy
England won by 57 runs
Third Test, at Colombo
From Nov 23-27
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The biog
Favourite car: Ferrari
Likes the colour: Black
Best movie: Avatar
Academic qualifications: Bachelor’s degree in media production from the Higher Colleges of Technology and diploma in production from the New York Film Academy
AI traffic lights to ease congestion at seven points to Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Street
The seven points are:
Shakhbout bin Sultan Street
Dhafeer Street
Hadbat Al Ghubainah Street (outbound)
Salama bint Butti Street
Al Dhafra Street
Rabdan Street
Umm Yifina Street exit (inbound)
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
Abaya trends
The utilitarian robe held dear by Arab women is undergoing a change that reveals it as an elegant and graceful garment available in a range of colours and fabrics, while retaining its traditional appeal.
Brief scoreline:
Manchester United 2
Rashford 28', Martial 72'
Watford 1
Doucoure 90'
MATCH INFO
Norwich City 1 (Cantwell 75') Manchester United 2 (Aghalo 51' 118') After extra time.
Man of the match Harry Maguire (Manchester United)
India cancels school-leaving examinations
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Fernandes pen 2') Tottenham Hotspur 6 (Ndombele 4', Son 7' & 37' Kane (30' & pen 79, Aurier 51')
Man of the match Son Heung-min (Tottenham)
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
