People wearing protective masks walk through Ronald Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virgina, as air travel picks up in the US for this week's Memorial Day holiday. Global air passenger numbers are expected to be 52 per cent lower this year, according to Iata. Bloomberg
People wearing protective masks walk through Ronald Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virgina, as air travel picks up in the US for this week's Memorial Day holiday. Global air passenger numbers are expected to be 52 per cent lower this year, according to Iata. Bloomberg
People wearing protective masks walk through Ronald Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virgina, as air travel picks up in the US for this week's Memorial Day holiday. Global air passenger numbers are expected to be 52 per cent lower this year, according to Iata. Bloomberg
People wearing protective masks walk through Ronald Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virgina, as air travel picks up in the US for this week's Memorial Day holiday. Global air passenger numbers a

Aviation

Covid-19 pandemic to wipe out three years of growth for airline industry, Iata says

Air passenger numbers will be 52% lower in 2021 than pre-crisis levels, recover to 88% in 2022 and 105% in 2023, chief economist says

Deena Kamel
Deena Kamel

May 27, 2021

  • English
  • Arabic

The Covid-19 pandemic will cost global airlines up to three years of growth, though a strong recovery will ensue once governments remove travel barriers, according to the International Air Transport Association (Iata).

Total air passenger numbers in 2021 will be 52 per cent lower than they were in 2019, making for a "disappointing" year and a slight downward revision from the forecast in January, Brian Pearce, Iata's chief economist, said during an online media briefing on Wednesday. In 2022, passenger numbers will bounce back to 88 per cent of their pre-crisis levels before exceeding pre-pandemic levels (105 per cent) in 2023.

"In our view, the long-term impact is that we've lost two to three years' worth of growth, but once those travel barriers come down, we should see a fairly rapid snapback," Mr Pearce said.

By 2030 global passenger numbers are expected to have grown to 5.6 billion, which would be 7 per cent below Iata’s pre-Covid forecast and an estimated loss of 2-3 years of growth.

Iata’s long-term post-Covid forecast on Wednesday showed that the recovery in passenger numbers is slightly stronger than the recovery in demand measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs). This is because of the expected faster rebound in domestic markets like China with large passenger numbers and shorter distances, as international travel lags behind.

In terms of regions, different markets will recover at a varying pace, depending on travel restrictions, the pace of vaccination distribution and governments’ approach to risk, Mr Pearce said.

Airlines in regions with large domestic markets such as Asia will be the first to recover, while markets that are much more reliant on international travel such as western Europe, Africa and the Middle East, will lag behind by about a year, he said.

In the long term, once travel restrictions are removed and once economic drivers of air travel and demographics improve, Asia-Pacific will be the fastest-growing region in terms of passenger numbers with a 5.4 per cent compounded annual growth rate between 2025 and 2030, the chief economist said. Africa and the Middle East will grow by 5 per cent, western Europe by 2.3 per cent and north America by 1.5 per cent.

This points to an expectation that the Covid-19 pandemic will accelerate a shift in the centre of gravity for air travel eastwards because of the relative strength of the Asian and emerging markets.

“This is quite important for those airlines acting as global super-connectors, there’s a geographical advantage for airlines based around the Gulf region, which we’d expect to persist,” Mr Pearce said.

While the long-term damage to the industry from the Covid-19 pandemic will be felt for many years to come, the short-term indications point to pent-up demand for air travel, Iata said.

The global economy has followed a V-shaped recovery, with production and trade increasing to 2 per cent above 2019 levels, Mr Pearce said. Consumers have also accumulated savings during the lockdowns and in some markets, such as the US and UK, these have exceeded 10 per cent of GDP, Mr Pearce said.

“Potential travellers have money to spend,” he noted. “The evidence is there of pent-up demand.”

_____________

Indonesians offer prayers at Borobudur temple, the largest Buddhist temple in the world, during celebrations of Vesak Day, marking the birth, enlightenment and death of Buddha, in Magelang, Central Java province. Reuters
Indonesians offer prayers at Borobudur temple, the largest Buddhist temple in the world, during celebrations of Vesak Day, marking the birth, enlightenment and death of Buddha, in Magelang, Central Java province. Reuters
A person walks along a pedestrian crossing in Tokyo. AP
A person walks along a pedestrian crossing in Tokyo. AP
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Relatives of a man who died of Covid-19 mourn during his cremation in Srinagar, India. Reuters
People wait in line at a Covid-19 testing centre in Melbourne, Australia. Victoria's health department had reported 10 new cases in the previous 24 hours. EPA
People wait in line at a Covid-19 testing centre in Melbourne, Australia. Victoria's health department had reported 10 new cases in the previous 24 hours. EPA
People walk during the morning rush hour in Beijing. AP
People walk during the morning rush hour in Beijing. AP
Demonstrators take part in a protest against the Covid-19 lockdown imposed by Argentina's government, in the capital Buenos Aires. AFP
Demonstrators take part in a protest against the Covid-19 lockdown imposed by Argentina's government, in the capital Buenos Aires. AFP
Teachers and school staff queue to receive a dose of China's CanSino Covid-19 outside a military base in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. Reuters
Teachers and school staff queue to receive a dose of China's CanSino Covid-19 outside a military base in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. Reuters
A refrigerated container with supplies to produce China's Sinovac vaccine arrives at an airport in Guarulhos, Brazil. Reuters
A refrigerated container with supplies to produce China's Sinovac vaccine arrives at an airport in Guarulhos, Brazil. Reuters
People travel on a train in Manhattan, New York. Reuters
People travel on a train in Manhattan, New York. Reuters
A surfer walks into the Pacific Ocean, at Manhattan Beach, in California. Reuters
A surfer walks into the Pacific Ocean, at Manhattan Beach, in California. Reuters
A health worker vaccinates a pensioner with a first dose of the Pfizer Covid-19 shot in Johannesburg, South Africa. AP
A health worker vaccinates a pensioner with a first dose of the Pfizer Covid-19 shot in Johannesburg, South Africa. AP
Policemen stop commuters at a checkpoint after authorities imposed an evening lockdown to curb the spread of Covid-19 in Karachi, Pakistan. AFP
Policemen stop commuters at a checkpoint after authorities imposed an evening lockdown to curb the spread of Covid-19 in Karachi, Pakistan. AFP

During the media briefing, Iata's boss Willie Walsh also weighed in on the incident involving a Ryanair jet flying to Vilnius that was diverted by authorities in Belarus to Minsk.

A “detailed and fundamental” review of what happened when the plane was forced to land in Belarus is required and the international community needs to rally together to ensure that such an incident is never repeated, he said.

The Iata chief also called on governments to agree on a common standard for digital health certificates, which show proof of Covid-19 testing and vaccination, to avoid delays and chaos at airports.

The national orchestra
THE BIO

BIO:
Born in RAK on December 9, 1983
Lives in Abu Dhabi with her family
She graduated from Emirates University in 2007 with a BA in architectural engineering
Her motto in life is her grandmother’s saying “That who created you will not have you get lost”
Her ambition is to spread UAE’s culture of love and acceptance through serving coffee, the country’s traditional coffee in particular.

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Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi

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Teaching your child to save

Pre-school (three - five years)

You can’t yet talk about investing or borrowing, but introduce a “classic” money bank and start putting gifts and allowances away. When the child wants a specific toy, have them save for it and help them track their progress.

Early childhood (six - eight years)

Replace the money bank with three jars labelled ‘saving’, ‘spending’ and ‘sharing’. Have the child divide their allowance into the three jars each week and explain their choices in splitting their pocket money. A guide could be 25 per cent saving, 50 per cent spending, 25 per cent for charity and gift-giving.

Middle childhood (nine - 11 years)

Open a bank savings account and help your child establish a budget and set a savings goal. Introduce the notion of ‘paying yourself first’ by putting away savings as soon as your allowance is paid.

Young teens (12 - 14 years)

Change your child’s allowance from weekly to monthly and help them pinpoint long-range goals such as a trip, so they can start longer-term saving and find new ways to increase their saving.

Teenage (15 - 18 years)

Discuss mutual expectations about university costs and identify what they can help fund and set goals. Don’t pay for everything, so they can experience the pride of contributing.

Young adulthood (19 - 22 years)

Discuss post-graduation plans and future life goals, quantify expenses such as first apartment, work wardrobe, holidays and help them continue to save towards these goals.

* JP Morgan Private Bank 

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Price, base / as tested: Dh74,900 / Dh85,900

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Sunday, 10am, ICC Academy, Dubai - UAE v Scotland

Admission is free

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When: 7pm kick off

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Admission: Free

Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page

UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)

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2.

China

3.

UAE

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Japan

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Norway

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Canada

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Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea
BusinessAviationInternational Air Transport Association