Boeing cut its forecast for commercial jet demand over the next decade as the Covid-19 pandemic erodes deliveries before sales gradually recover in the 2030s.
The Chicago-based company projects 18,350 plane deliveries in the period between 2020 to 2029, down 11 per cent from its forecast in 2019 before the Covid-19 crisis decimated demand for air travel and new aircraft. Boeing predicted a market of $2.9 trillion for commercial jets over the next decade.
Growth is expected to pick up in the 2030s, with Boeing forecasting 43,110 commercial aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years. However, this is still 2 per cent below the 44,040 deliveries projected in 2019, worth $6.8tn at list prices.
"Commercial aviation is facing historic challenges this year, significantly affecting near- and medium-term demand for airplanes and services," Darren Hulst, Boeing's commercial marketing vice president, said. "The current disruption will inform airline fleet strategies long into the future, as airlines focus on building versatile fleets, networks and business model innovations that deliver the most capability and greatest efficiency at the lowest risk for sustainable growth."
The 2020 Boeing Market Outlook was the company's first forecast since Covid-19 upended the global aviation industry. The projections are part of Boeing's annual 20-year forecast of commercial jet industry demand.
The pandemic has led governments to impose travel restrictions that have forced airlines to ground thousands of jets, particularly widebodies used on long-haul routes, as international air travel declines.
Boeing expects it will take about three years for air travel to return to 2019 levels, and it will be a "few years beyond that" for the industry to return to long-term growth trends.
Narrow-body aircraft are forecast to lead the way to recovery as domestic and short-haul routes rebound faster than long-haul travel. Passengers will also prefer point-to-point travel, the company said, as opposed to routing through hubs.
Single-aisle airplanes, such as Boeing's grounded 737 Max, will continue to be the largest market segment, with operators projected to need 32,270 new airplanes in the next 20 years, down 0.5 per cent from the 2019 outlook.
Overall, narrow-bodies will make up 75 per cent of total aircraft deliveries in the next 20 years.
Boeing cut its 20-year forecast for twin-engine planes – such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and Airbus A350 – by 10.3 per cent to 7,480 deliveries, down from 8,340 a year ago.
"Widebody demand will be affected by a slower recovery in long-haul markets – typical after air-travel shocks – as well as uncertainties from Covid-19's impact on international travel," Boeing said.
In terms of regions, Middle East carriers will take delivery of 2,945 jets in the next 20 years, down from the 3,130 planes predicted in 2019. This brings the size of the regional fleet to 3,500 aircraft by 2039.
Single-aisle jets will make up 52 per cent of the Middle East's aircraft deliveries, followed by 43 per cent of widebodies. Regional jets and freighters make up the remainder.
"Middle East carriers will moderately downsize their fleets to add to the share of smaller widebodies, which can increase the profitability of service to smaller cities or in seasonal slow-demand periods," Boeing said. "Resilient intra-regional and short-haul markets will drive single-aisle demand for both network carriers and low-cost carriers."
Boeing voiced optimism about the global aviation industry's long-term fundamentals, citing its resilience following previous crises, airlines' need to replace older planes and the need for fuel-efficient jets to meet sustainability goals.
"We remain confident in the resilience of commercial aviation," Boeing said. "Coming out of every crisis, the industry has innovated to improve service and value for the travelling public."
The aircraft manufacturer predicted passenger traffic over the next 20 years will grow by an average of 4 per cent a year, compared to 4.6 per cent a year ago.
Air cargo demand, a rare bright spot for airlines this year, is expected to grow 4 per cent annually led by robust markets in east Asia and acceleration of e-commerce, Boeing said. Demand for freighters has been on the rise during the pandemic as overall cargo capacity fell due to grounded passenger jets.
Despite this short-term boon, Boeing expects demand for freighters to drop 10.5 per cent to 930 new wide-body production freighters over the 20-year period.
Including defence, space and services, Boeing forecasts a total market value of $8.5tn over the next decade, down from $8.7tn a year ago due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo
Power: 240hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 390Nm at 3,000rpm
Transmission: eight-speed auto
Price: from Dh122,745
On sale: now
About Tenderd
Started: May 2018
Founder: Arjun Mohan
Based: Dubai
Size: 23 employees
Funding: Raised $5.8m in a seed fund round in December 2018. Backers include Y Combinator, Beco Capital, Venturesouq, Paul Graham, Peter Thiel, Paul Buchheit, Justin Mateen, Matt Mickiewicz, SOMA, Dynamo and Global Founders Capital
Most sought after workplace benefits in the UAE
- Flexible work arrangements
- Pension support
- Mental well-being assistance
- Insurance coverage for optical, dental, alternative medicine, cancer screening
- Financial well-being incentives
FINAL RESULT
Sharjah Wanderers 20 Dubai Tigers 25 (After extra-time)
Wanderers
Tries: Gormley, Penalty
cons: Flaherty
Pens: Flaherty 2
Tigers
Tries: O’Donnell, Gibbons, Kelly
Cons: Caldwell 2
Pens: Caldwell, Cross
BULKWHIZ PROFILE
Date started: February 2017
Founders: Amira Rashad (CEO), Yusuf Saber (CTO), Mahmoud Sayedahmed (adviser), Reda Bouraoui (adviser)
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: E-commerce
Size: 50 employees
Funding: approximately $6m
Investors: Beco Capital, Enabling Future and Wain in the UAE; China's MSA Capital; 500 Startups; Faith Capital and Savour Ventures in Kuwait
Match info
Manchester City 3 (Jesus 22', 50', Sterling 69')
Everton 1 (Calvert-Lewin 65')
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
Malcolm & Marie
Directed by: Sam Levinson
Starring: John David Washington and Zendaya
Three stars
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AndhaDhun
Director: Sriram Raghavan
Producer: Matchbox Pictures, Viacom18
Cast: Ayushmann Khurrana, Tabu, Radhika Apte, Anil Dhawan
Rating: 3.5/5
Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Envi%20Lodges%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeptember%202021%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Noelle%20Homsy%20and%20Chris%20Nader%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hospitality%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%20to%2015%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStage%20of%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2019 BMW X4
Price, base / as tested: Dh276,675 / Dh346,800
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged in-line six-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 354hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,550rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.0L / 100km
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Power: 650hp at 6,750rpm
Torque: 800Nm from 2,500-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch auto
Fuel consumption: 11.12L/100km
Price: From Dh796,600
On sale: now
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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1.
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United States
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2.
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China
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3.
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UAE
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
The Pope's itinerary
Sunday, February 3, 2019 - Rome to Abu Dhabi
1pm: departure by plane from Rome / Fiumicino to Abu Dhabi
10pm: arrival at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
Monday, February 4
12pm: welcome ceremony at the main entrance of the Presidential Palace
12.20pm: visit Abu Dhabi Crown Prince at Presidential Palace
5pm: private meeting with Muslim Council of Elders at Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque
6.10pm: Inter-religious in the Founder's Memorial
Tuesday, February 5 - Abu Dhabi to Rome
9.15am: private visit to undisclosed cathedral
10.30am: public mass at Zayed Sports City – with a homily by Pope Francis
12.40pm: farewell at Abu Dhabi Presidential Airport
1pm: departure by plane to Rome
5pm: arrival at the Rome / Ciampino International Airport
