Israel's attack on Iran is the latest in a series of global conflicts that are ratcheting airlines' security concerns, while weighing on their operations and profitability.
An increasing number of conflict zones around the world means airlines are forced to take longer and costlier routes – impacting fuel, emissions and passengers.
For passengers, this means flight cancellations and delays or longer journeys as jets are diverted away from conflict areas. Airlines are grappling with more airspace closures, threats from missiles or drones and GPS jamming.
Israel's attack on Friday is part of a broader trend of escalating geopolitical tensions that are “directly impacting global aviation”, following the situations in Ukraine and the Red Sea, according to independent security, aviation, maritime and energy analyst Dean Mikkelsen.
“We’re witnessing a growing patchwork of restricted airspace and this is putting considerable pressure on airlines and passengers alike,” he told The National.
For travellers, the most immediate impact will be on fares as aviation disruption results in longer flight times due to rerouting. In this case, routes need to be adapted around Iranian, Syrian and at times even Iraqi airspace, Mr Mikkelsen said.
'No straight answer'
Fuel consumption is also expected to rise significantly. Jet fuel already makes up around 30 per cent of an airline's operating costs and that burden only grows when 30 to 90 minutes of extra flight time is needed.
Mr Mikkelsen estimates that routes from Asia to Europe or the Gulf to North America could translate to a 7 per cent to 15 per cent increase in fares, particularly on long-haul itineraries, especially as the peak summer season approaches.
Other knock-on effects are those on crew hours, insurance premiums and scheduling complexity, all of which erode profitability, he noted. “Carriers already operating on tight post-pandemic margins will feel this sharply,” he added.
Some airlines may choose to pass the cost onto the onto the passengers in the form of increased air fares, said Tatevik Revazian, a senior vice president at Osprey Flight Solutions.
"However, such a step can also influence their profitability so it is an individual airlines decision. There is no straight answer here," she told The National.
The Israel-Iran conflict throws the region's aviation industry into question, especially with the uncertainty about how long the hostility will last.
Airspaces should always remain neutral and accessible when it is safe to do so, according to the International Air Travel Association.
Closures, in addition to using them in retaliatory ways, “fragment global connectivity, disrupt operations and hurt passengers and economies”, the Geneva-based Iata said.
Conflict zones substantially add to the disruption risks: in 2024, geopolitical conflicts led to significant airspace restrictions, affecting a substantial portion of long-haul routes, according to Iata data.
For instance, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, now in its fourth year, forced the rerouting of about 1,100 daily flights, leading to longer flight times and increased operational challenges, it said.
Rerouting would also increase maintenance requirements, crew rest issues and slot time adjustments for air operators, which in turn "can also lead to flight cancellations if the aircraft reaches its flight limits", Osprey chief intelligence officer Matthew Borie said.
"The routes can also simply become unprofitable", he added.
Fuel and emissions have also surged. Detours around conflict zones can lead to an average fuel consumption increase of 13 per cent on affected routes, Iata added.
When British Airways had to suspend flights to Beijing because it needed to avoid Russian airspace, the flight time was almost three hours longer and fuel costs increased by a fifth.
In October 2024 alone, multiple flights encountered Iranian missiles aimed at Israel, leading to diversions and emergency manoeuvres, Iata said.
The effect that conflict zones have on airspaces is also reflected in the shift of activity to other areas. For instance, countries like Egypt, with many rerouted flights passing through its airspace, would result in increased overflight fees and greater regional air traffic.
“The Cairo Flight Information Region is becoming a crucial alternative corridor, alongside Jordan and Saudi Arabia,” Mr Mikkelsen said.
As such, both Egypt and Saudi Arabia are likely to see a significantly increased amount of overflight traffic over the next month, Mr Borie added Ms Revazian, who had also served as the head of Armenia's Civil Aviation Authority.
"More traffic does mean increased revenues for the air navigation services provider, but it can also lead to capacity issues," she said.
Airlines across the region have delayed and cancelled flights following Israel’s early morning attack on Iran.
Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv has shut down until further notice, Iran has declared its airspace closed and Iraq has temporarily suspended civilian operations at all its airports.
In the UAE, Etihad Airways cancelled its services to and from Tel Aviv, as Israel placed its air defence systems on high alert in anticipation of possible retaliation.
Other major airlines, including Emirates, Lufthansa and Air India, rerouted services mid-flight on Friday. An Emirates flight from Manchester was diverted to Istanbul, while an Air India flight from New York to Delhi was diverted to Sharjah.
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Earth under attack: Cosmic impacts throughout history
- 4.5 billion years ago: Mars-sized object smashes into the newly-formed Earth, creating debris that coalesces to form the Moon
- 66 million years ago: 10km-wide asteroid crashes into the Gulf of Mexico, wiping out over 70 per cent of living species – including the dinosaurs.
- 50,000 years ago: 50m-wide iron meteor crashes in Arizona with the violence of 10 megatonne hydrogen bomb, creating the famous 1.2km-wide Barringer Crater
- 1490: Meteor storm over Shansi Province, north-east China when large stones “fell like rain”, reportedly leading to thousands of deaths.
- 1908: 100-metre meteor from the Taurid Complex explodes near the Tunguska river in Siberia with the force of 1,000 Hiroshima-type bombs, devastating 2,000 square kilometres of forest.
- 1998: Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 breaks apart and crashes into Jupiter in series of impacts that would have annihilated life on Earth.
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The Details
Article 15
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More on Quran memorisation:
T20 World Cup Qualifier
October 18 – November 2
Opening fixtures
Friday, October 18
ICC Academy: 10am, Scotland v Singapore, 2.10pm, Netherlands v Kenya
Zayed Cricket Stadium: 2.10pm, Hong Kong v Ireland, 7.30pm, Oman v UAE
UAE squad
Ahmed Raza (captain), Rohan Mustafa, Ashfaq Ahmed, Rameez Shahzad, Darius D’Silva, Mohammed Usman, Mohammed Boota, Zawar Farid, Ghulam Shabber, Junaid Siddique, Sultan Ahmed, Imran Haider, Waheed Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Zahoor Khan
Players out: Mohammed Naveed, Shaiman Anwar, Qadeer Ahmed
Players in: Junaid Siddique, Darius D’Silva, Waheed Ahmed
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Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
liverpool youngsters
Ki-Jana Hoever
The only one of this squad to have scored for Liverpool, the versatile Dutchman impressed on his debut at Wolves in January. He can play right-back, centre-back or in midfield.
Herbie Kane
Not the most prominent H Kane in English football but a 21-year-old Bristolian who had a fine season on loan at Doncaster last year. He is an all-action midfielder.
Luis Longstaff
Signed from Newcastle but no relation to United’s brothers Sean and Matty, Luis is a winger. An England Under-16 international, he helped Liverpool win the FA Youth Cup last season.
Yasser Larouci
An 18-year-old Algerian-born winger who can also play as a left-back, Larouci did well on Liverpool’s pre-season tour until an awful tackle by a Sevilla player injured him.
Adam Lewis
Steven Gerrard is a fan of his fellow Scouser, who has been on Liverpool’s books since he was in the Under-6s, Lewis was a midfielder, but has been converted into a left-back.
'Munich: The Edge of War'
Director: Christian Schwochow
Starring: George MacKay, Jannis Niewohner, Jeremy Irons
Rating: 3/5
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
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Like a Fading Shadow
Antonio Muñoz Molina
Translated from the Spanish by Camilo A. Ramirez
Tuskar Rock Press (pp. 310)
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