Dubai International Airport (DXB) expects to hit the mark of 100 million passengers by the end of 2026, earlier than a forecast of 2027, as post-pandemic travel demand remains robust.
DXB is expected to handle 96 million travellers this year, up from a previous forecast of 94 million, Paul Griffiths, chief executive of Dubai Airports, told The National on Wednesday.
“We're looking at getting to the magic 100 million hopefully before the end of 2026,” Mr Griffiths said in an interview on the sidelines of the Arabian Travel Market in Dubai.
The forecast will put the hub in direct competition with Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, which is currently the world's busiest airport by domestic and international passenger traffic. The US site handled 108 million passengers in 2024, according to data from Airports Council International.
Travel demand so far remains unaffected by the tariffs uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump.
“The way that the tariffs have been on one day, off the next day, you cannot draw any conclusions or any long-term forecasts for what the impact will be,” Mr Griffiths said.
“However, if they do go into play, there will be a redistribution of trade as the nations that do significant trade with America will be looking to enter other markets.”
DXB is "well-placed" to cope with the shifts in global trade flows as its network of countries is diversified. It currently serves 269 destinations in 106 countries through 101 airline customers.
“We are very fortunate, our geo-centricity here in Dubai means that we've got all of those destinations,” he said. "[Aircraft] capacity has gone down, demand has gone up, and that will compensate for any diminution in any particular market.”
If US trade with its partners declines because of higher tariffs, then major producers such as China will seek to boost their trade with other countries to compensate for the shortfall, he said. Dubai's hub model is "robust" enough to adjust to the new direction of trade flows.
"There are plenty of reasons to be cheerful about the outlook ... we don't see any visible signs thus far to suggest that the future is in any way concerning," Mr Griffiths said.
Long-haul travel to and from the US may be impacted "at some stage" by the tariffs but the US is not one of DXB's prime markets, he added.
With 804,000 travellers, the US is DXB's fifth-biggest market, so "if we lost a few thousand passengers on that market, I'm sure there will be a compensating increase elsewhere".
The political changes around the world makes Dubai an "attractive position" for tourists and investors because of its stability, Mr Griffths said.
Meanwhile, lower oil prices may not necessarily mean cheaper flight tickets as they do not move in lockstep, but rather airfares will be influenced by strength of demand and shortage of capacity, he said.
DXB recorded a 1.5 per cent year-on-year increase in passenger traffic in the first quarter as the city attracted more visitors during the seasonal travel peak at the start of the year, it said on Wednesday.
The world's busiest international hub handled 23.4 million passengers in the first three months of the year, as investments in infrastructure and use of biometrics funnelled in more tourists and transiting travellers faster through the airport, state-owned operator Dubai Airports said on Wednesday.
January hit the highest monthly traffic on record at DXB with 8.5 million travellers.
The airport's performance comes as the city recorded a 3 per cent annual increase in international visitor numbers to 5.31 million in the first three months of 2025, according to the Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing.
The home of long-haul specialist Emirates Airline continued its dominance as the world's busiest international hub for the 11th year in a row in 2024.
Dubai's tourism chief Issam Kazim last week said that the city is in a good position to “ride the wave” of global economic shocks due to its tourism track record and geographic position.
On Tuesday, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed, chairman and chief executive of Emirates Airline and group, said there has been no impact on travel flows so far from US President Donald Trump’s tariff regime.
Leisure travel surge
In the first quarter of 2025, India retained its position as DXB's top destination country, with three million guests, followed by Saudi Arabia (1.9 million), the UK (1.5 million), Pakistan (1 million), the US (804,000), and Germany (738,000).
In terms of cities, London led with 935,000 guests, followed by Riyadh (759,000), Jeddah (627,000), Mumbai (615,000) and New Delhi (564,000).
Leisure travel surged during the January-March period, driven by Eid holidays and spring break, with increases in traffic to destinations such as the Czech Republic (up 30.6 per cent), and Vietnam (up 28.6 per cent).
However, first-quarter air freight volumes declined 3.6 per cent year-on-year to 517,000 tonnes.
