Efforts by the aviation industry to achieve net-zero emissions targets by 2050 are “off-track”, with airlines set to be penalised for the failure of other players to do their part to meet climate goals, executives have warned.
Oil majors, governments, aircraft manufacturers and air-traffic controllers must increase their sustainability efforts as airlines cannot achieve these goals on their own, Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, said.
“Sustainability and net-zero 2050 is a must for our industry, not an option,” Mr Walsh said at the World Cargo Symposium in Dubai. “We are concerned about the pace at which we're progressing, particularly in the area of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).”
Airlines agreed in 2021 to target net-zero emissions in 2050, driven mainly by a gradual switch to SAF. But the alternative fuel is in low supply, accounting for just 0.3 per cent of global jet fuel production last year, and is three to five times more expensive than kerosene.
Cracks in the sustainability plan have appeared as airlines clash with airports, plane makers, air traffic control authorities and energy companies.
Failure of other players
The Iata chief accused oil majors of backtracking on their renewable energy pledges, while original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have failed to deliver fuel-efficient jets on schedule.
“There's a real risk at the moment that we're off-track in terms of the pathway to net-zero by 2050 and the concern that I have is that this will be seized upon by people who like to penalise our industry and we just face more and more penalties and taxes because of the failure of other players to do their part,” Mr Walsh said.
“It's very challenging at the moment and that challenge is getting greater by the day rather than becoming more achievable.”
Mr Walsh hit back particularly at Europe's ReFuelEU Aviation plan, saying that they are extremely ambitious but not achievable. The plan calls for fuel uplift from member state airports to contain at least 2 per cent SAF. The percentage will increase gradually, reaching 70 per cent by 2050.
Iata director general
“We're particularly concerned about the way some governments and some regions are pushing this [SAF] with mandates that are unrealistic,” Mr Walsh said.
“I don't mind ambitious targets, but what I do mind is what happens when those targets aren't met: The idea that the targets were set to drive the production of SAF is a positive, but the idea that it incentivises airlines because we are going to penalised financially if we don’t achieve them, is wrong … There is no environmental benefit to penalising airlines for the failure of other players in the supply chain.”
Gabriela Hiitola, senior vice president of Finnair Cargo, said that the sustainability goals are “really demanding”.
“Let's see if we manage in the time to reach those [goals]. If we want to reach them, we cannot do it alone as airlines, we need governments to help with regulations,” Ms Hiitola said.
Airlines are struggling with varied requirements from different countries they serve.
“We have different regulations in different countries. It's a bit messy currently … we need governments, we need investments, we need our partners to join us on this journey,” Ms Hiitola said.
The cost of SAF to airlines is significant, estimated at $174 billion on average per year between 2023 and 2050, Maja Marciniak, senior economist at Iata, said.
“It does require collective effort and collective buy-in to help us move in that direction,” Ms Marciniak said.
As SAF volumes remain far below what is needed, and production costs remain high, Iata has urged governments to implement policies to scale up SAF production and reduce costs.
“The ramp-up of SAF – our strongest lever – has been disappointing,” Brendan Sullivan, Iata's global head of cargo, said.
“The major fuel producers have been slow-walking – or sidelining – planned investments in SAF. Aircraft manufacturers have backed off their commitments for medium-term delivery of CO2 saving products such as hydrogen-powered aircraft. And governments have not provided the policy support needed, even though they have a playbook at hand with how the wind and solar energy industries expanded. Instead, they send mixed signals by subsidising fossil fuel extraction while aiming for net zero.”
Mr Sullivan said that regulators, fuel suppliers and manufacturers needed to act on their words.
