Dubai airport's Q4 passenger traffic forecast to grow 3.5% on holiday travel

Dubai International Airport (DXB) is expected to end the year strongly with a 3.5 per cent increase in passenger traffic in the fourth quarter and a record high of 91.9 million annual passengers.

The world's busiest airport by international traffic is forecast to handle 23.2 million passengers in the last three months of this year, up from 22.4 million in the same quarter of 2023, as expats travel home for the holidays and visitors enjoy the UAE's pleasant winter weather, operator Dubai Airports said on Tuesday.

With robust performance in the first nine months of this year and an anticipated surge in fourth-quarter traffic, DXB's annual traffic is forecast to reach a record 91.9 million passengers – the highest in its 64 years, the statement said.

DXB and Dubai's second hub Al Maktoum International Airport, also known as DWC, are together expected to handle 93 million passengers throughout 2024, up from the pre-Covid record in 2018 of 89.1 million, Paul Griffiths, chief executive of Dubai Airports, told The National on Tuesday.

"DXB is seeing more direct traffic than ever before – a shift from the long-standing trend where transfer traffic dominated," Mr Griffiths said in a statement on Tuesday. "This reflects Dubai’s evolution into not just a premier tourist destination, but also a globally attractive place to live, work and do business, further underscored by the city’s booming real estate market and its rising appeal as a destination for top talent.

"We’re focused on continuing to deliver an exceptional experience in the final quarter, buoyed by Dubai’s vibrant winter calendar and renowned attractions.”

Dubai welcomed 13.3 million overnight visitors in January to September, an increase of 7 per cent on the same period last year, the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (DET)'s latest data found.

A major trade, tourism and commercial hub in the Middle East, Dubai is attracting businesses and talent from around the world with its more flexible visa schemes, spending on infrastructure, and economic diversification agenda.

DXB's fourth-quarter passenger volume surge will be driven by direct traffic to Dubai, the airport operator said. About 60 per cent of fourth-quarter passenger traffic is forecast to be direct, compared to 50 per cent in the third quarter and 55 per cent for the full year, Dubai Airports said.

Growth in the number of passengers is expected from western Europe, with an increase of 237,000 seats (compared to the third quarter), and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, adding 301,000 seats. This is supported by home-based carriers and new airlines, including ITA, Condor, Hainan and Druk Air.

Dubai World Central - Al Maktoum International (DWC) has added Air France subsidiary Transavia and Germany's Eurowings to its network.

In the third quarter, DXB handled 23.7 million passengers, up 3.4 per cent year-on-year, Dubai Airports said.

This contributed to the nine-month total of 68.6 million, up 6.3 per cent from the same period last year.

Chinese travellers return

The market leading growth in the nine-month period was India, with 8.9 million passengers, followed by Saudi Arabia with 5.6 million, marking a 15.2 per cent increase from the kingdom, while the UK accounted for 4.6 million guests, a 4.7 per cent annual growth. Pakistan and the US contributed 3.4 million and 2.6 million passengers, respectively, and Germany 2 million.

London remained the top city destination with 2.9 million, followed by Riyadh, which grew 25.8 per cent to 2.3 million passengers.

The number of Chinese travellers grew 40 per cent year-on-year to 1.6 million. "It's very encouraging that this market is close to recovery, we're 85 per cent where we were with Chinese traffic pre-pandemic and it's the 10th largest market for traffic to and from DXB," Mr Griffiths said.

"There are 15 destinations with five airlines serving them, including Emirates. The recovery in the Chinese market, particularly over the last few months, has been very sizeable and we welcome that."

Impact of US election

Asked about the possible impact of president-elect Donald Trump's policies on the global aviation industry, after enforcing disruptive travel bans during his previous term in office, Mr Griffiths said he hoped that any potential interventions would be minimal.

"I'm hoping that some of the lessons from the last term, where some of these policies actually didn't seem to achieve a very positive objective, will mean that there will be some very serious thought about anything that slows down the growth and progression of air travel," he said.

"Social mobility creates a better world. The fact that we're able to move easily and meet ... is facilitated by travel and tourism. I think Trump's administration is smart enough to know that this creates growth and harmony, and removes conflict.

"If there are any moves to make travel more difficult, I think the ramifications of that will be well understood. So hopefully the number of interventions that we get, which could harm growth, will be minimal."

In 2017, the Trump administration enforced a months-long ban on passengers carrying laptops on US-bound flights from certain airports in the Middle East and North Africa, making it one of the more controversial travel restrictions imposed at the time.

Mr Trump's measures, which included banning citizens of some Muslim-majority countries from visiting the US, resulted in a drop in demand on US routes for some Middle East airlines at the time.

While DXB continues to record increasing passenger volumes, the pace of growth may soften in the next two years as airlines grapple with a shortage of new aircraft due to supply chain problems, Mr Griffiths said.

"Delays in deliveries are having a serious impact on airlines' ability to put on the capacity they need to serve their customers," he said. "That will drive a period of slightly sluggish growth over the next couple of years.

"I'm sure that will get resolved in time and then we will be able to resume our normal rates of growth."