Boeing will take months to increase jet production to the rates targeted before the union workers' strike that ended on November 5, leaving frustrated Gulf airlines awaiting deliveries of their delayed aircraft, analysts said.
The US plane-maker will build up its production rate slowly and gradually as workers return to their duties starting from November 6, with the 737 Max production output expected to reach the “the mid-teens” in the first quarter of next year, John Grant, senior analyst at travel data firm OAG, told The National.
This falls short of the goal of 38 planes a month before the strike, which had halted work on the 737 model. The US Federal Aviation Authority (FAA) had earlier frozen the monthly production rate of the 737 Max as Boeing works on a plan to improve its quality control and safety processes.
“They cannot get back to those numbers without full clearance from the FAA and that is going to take months, I anticipate they will get to the mid-teens by the end of the first quarter 2025 at best,” Mr Grant said.
US investment bank Jefferies expects that production could restart in the “upper teens” after the end of the strikes, compared to about 25 a month pre-strike rate, it said in a note on November 5.
Analysts expect Boeing to exceed its pre-strike production level on its best-selling 737 narrow-body model by 2027.
“Boeing can probably get back to its pre-strike production rates within a few months. This is because those pre-strike production rates were terrible. Getting to where they want to be, which is well over twice those pre-strike rates, will take longer than it would have before the strike,” Richard Aboulafia, managing director of US-based aerospace consultancy AeroDynamic Advisory, told The National.
“Maybe in late 2026 or 2027, they’ll get to [production] rate 40 on the 737.”
Boeing's US West Coast factory workers accepted a new contract offer on Tuesday, ending a seven-week strike that had halted production of its best-selling 737 Max jet, as well as the 767 and 777 wide-bodies. The strike that started September 13 hammered Boeing's finances and added to the US plane maker's mounting woes.
Gulf airlines have expressed frustration with Boeing's continuing aircraft delivery delays, which were worsened by the strikes, as the lack of new planes hampered their growth plans amid strong air travel demand.
Emirates in October said plans to hold a “serious conversation” with Boeing in the next two months after the troubled US plane maker again pushed back the delivery date for its 777X, delaying its largest wide-body aircraft by about six years. In a terse statement, Emirates president Sir Tim Clark said “I fail to see how Boeing can make any meaningful forecasts of delivery dates”, given certification issues on the 777X and the strikes that were still under way at the time.
Last month, flydubai chief executive Ghaith Al Ghaith said the industry needs more aircraft manufacturers to enter the market to stimulate competition and shake up the dominance of Boeing and Airbus. Delays in Boeing aircraft deliveries are affecting Flydubai's capacity to grow, forcing the airline to cancel the launch of routes planned for the second half of this year and to reduce flight frequency. The all-Boeing fleet operator said in July that it was informed by Boeing that it would not receive any more planes this year.
“Airlines have already been wrestling with the uncertainty caused by delivery delays and the inability to plan future schedule seasons with confidence,” London-based independent aviation consultant John Strickland told The National.
While it is a relief for Boeing to end the workers' dispute, increasing its jet production rates will require prioritising the quality of its and its relationships with employees and suppliers.
“Given the complexity of production processes and the complex web of sub-suppliers who have borne their own impact from the strike, this will not be an easy task,” Mr Strickland said.
“It will take months rather than days or weeks to ramp up production and even then there are still the regulator imposed limits on output as the company seeks to restore necessary quality and safety processes.”
While ending the strike is a positive step, Boeing still has a lot of work to do in the months and years ahead as chief executive Kelly Ortberg executes a wider plan to turn around the aerospace company.
The next step is to finish the acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems, the Wichita, Kansas-based supplier that produces the fuselage for its 737 Max jet and negotiate a contract with the 3,000-strong St Louis machinists, largely for defence production, George Ferguson, senior aerospace analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, told The National.
“After this, it's all about improving quality and production throughput, reducing inventory and generating cash. Everything is largely in place, now its time to execute,” Mr Ferguson said.
Restarting and increasing production is necessary for the company to start generating cash and repaying debt, Ben Tsocanos, aerospace director at S&P Global Ratings, said in a report on November 5.
“We're watching to see how quickly aircraft production can recover and ramp up,” he said.
MATCH INFO
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10
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MATCH INFO
Championship play-offs, second legs:
Aston Villa 0
Middlesbrough 0
(Aston Villa advance 1-0 on aggregate)
Fulham 2
Sessegnon (47'), Odoi (66')
Derby County 0
(Fulham advance 2-1 on aggregate)
Final
Saturday, May 26, Wembley. Kick off 8pm (UAE)
More coverage from the Future Forum
Getting%20there
%3Cp%3EGiven%20its%20remote%20location%2C%20getting%20to%20Borneo%20can%20feel%20daunting%20even%20for%20the%20most%20seasoned%20traveller.%20But%20you%20can%20fly%20directly%20from%20Kuala%20Lumpur%20to%20Sandakan%20and%20Sepilok%20is%20only%20half%20an%20hour%20away%20by%20taxi.%20Sandakan%20has%20plenty%20of%20accommodation%20options%2C%20while%20Sepilok%20has%20a%20few%20nature%20lodges%20close%20to%20the%20main%20attractions.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Auron Mein Kahan Dum Tha
Starring: Ajay Devgn, Tabu, Shantanu Maheshwari, Jimmy Shergill, Saiee Manjrekar
Director: Neeraj Pandey
Rating: 2.5/5
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
At a glance
- 20,000 new jobs for Emiratis over three years
- Dh300 million set aside to train 18,000 jobseekers in new skills
- Managerial jobs in government restricted to Emiratis
- Emiratis to get priority for 160 types of job in private sector
- Portion of VAT revenues will fund more graduate programmes
- 8,000 Emirati graduates to do 6-12 month replacements in public or private sector on a Dh10,000 monthly wage - 40 per cent of which will be paid by government
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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'Moonshot'
Director: Chris Winterbauer
Stars: Lana Condor and Cole Sprouse
Rating: 3/5
Zayed Sustainability Prize
RESULT
West Brom 2 Liverpool 2
West Brom: Livermore (79'), Rondón (88' )
Liverpool: Ings (4'), Salah (72')
The specs: 2017 Ford F-150 Raptor
Price, base / as tested Dh220,000 / Dh320,000
Engine 3.5L V6
Transmission 10-speed automatic
Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque 678Nm @ 3,750rpm
Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km
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RESULTS
1.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,400m
Winner: Dirilis Ertugrul, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Ismail Mohammed (trainer)
2.15pm: Handicap Dh90,000 1,400m
Winner: Kidd Malibu, Sandro Paiva, Musabah Al Muhairi
2.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,000m
Winner: Raakezz, Tadhg O’Shea, Nicholas Bachalard
3.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,200m
Winner: Au Couer, Sean Kirrane, Satish Seemar
3.45pm: Maiden Dh75,000 1,600m
Winner: Rayig, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
4.15pm: Handicap Dh105,000 1,600m
Winner: Chiefdom, Royston Ffrench, Salem bin Ghadayer
4.45pm: Handicap Dh80,000 1,800m
Winner: King’s Shadow, Richard Mullen, Satish Seemar
Brahmastra%3A%20Part%20One%20-%20Shiva
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAyan%20Mukerji%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ERanbir%20Kapoor%2C%20Alia%20Bhatt%20and%20Amitabh%20Bachchan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: Macan Turbo
Engine: Dual synchronous electric motors
Power: 639hp
Torque: 1,130Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Touring range: 591km
Price: From Dh412,500
On sale: Deliveries start in October
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
The years Ramadan fell in May
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French Touch
Carla Bruni
(Verve)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
The biog
Name: Fareed Lafta
Age: 40
From: Baghdad, Iraq
Mission: Promote world peace
Favourite poet: Al Mutanabbi
Role models: His parents
Armies of Sand
By Kenneth Pollack (Oxford University Press)
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Defence review at a glance
• Increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027 but given “turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster”
• Prioritise a shift towards working with AI and autonomous systems
• Invest in the resilience of military space systems.
• Number of active reserves should be increased by 20%
• More F-35 fighter jets required in the next decade
• New “hybrid Navy” with AUKUS submarines and autonomous vessels
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Secret Nation: The Hidden Armenians of Turkey
Avedis Hadjian, (IB Tauris)
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'The Batman'
Stars:Robert Pattinson
Director:Matt Reeves
Rating: 5/5
The biog
DOB: 25/12/92
Marital status: Single
Education: Post-graduate diploma in UAE Diplomacy and External Affairs at the Emirates Diplomatic Academy in Abu Dhabi
Hobbies: I love fencing, I used to fence at the MK Fencing Academy but I want to start again. I also love reading and writing
Lifelong goal: My dream is to be a state minister
Read more about the coronavirus
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Zayed Sustainability Prize
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The five pillars of Islam
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The specs: 2018 Renault Koleos
Price, base: From Dh77,900
Engine: 2.5L, in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Continuously variable transmission
Power: 170hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 233Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.3L / 100km
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The five pillars of Islam
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Star%20Wars%3A%20Episode%20I%20%E2%80%93%20The%20Phantom%20Menace
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The view from The National
KLOPP%20AT%20LIVERPOOL
%3Cp%3EYears%3A%20October%202015%20-%20June%202024%3Cbr%3ETotal%20games%3A%20491%3Cbr%3EWin%20percentage%3A%2060.9%25%3Cbr%3EMajor%20trophies%3A%206%20(Premier%20League%20x%201%2C%20Champions%20League%20x%201%2C%20FA%20Cup%20x%201%2C%20League%20Cup%20x%202%2C%20Fifa%20Club%20World%20Cup%20x1)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: nine-speed
Power: 542bhp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: Dh848,000
On sale: now
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)
What is THAAD?
It is considered to be the US' most superior missile defence system.
Production:
It was first created in 2008.
Speed:
THAAD missiles can travel at over Mach 8, so fast that it is hypersonic.
Abilities:
THAAD is designed to take out projectiles, namely ballistic missiles, as they are on their downward trajectory towards their target, otherwise known as the "terminal phase".
Purpose:
To protect high-value strategic sites, such as airfields or population centres.
Range:
THAAD can target projectiles both inside and outside of the Earth's atmosphere, at an altitude of 93 miles above the Earth's surface.
Creators:
Lockheed Martin was originally granted the contract to develop the system in 1992. Defence company Raytheon sub-contracts to develop other major parts of the system, such as ground-based radar.
UAE and THAAD:
In 2011, the UAE became the first country outside of the US to buy two THAAD missile defence systems. It then deployed them in 2016, becoming the first Gulf country to do so.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
KILLING OF QASSEM SULEIMANI
Iran's dirty tricks to dodge sanctions
There’s increased scrutiny on the tricks being used to keep commodities flowing to and from blacklisted countries. Here’s a description of how some work.
1 Going Dark
A common method to transport Iranian oil with stealth is to turn off the Automatic Identification System, an electronic device that pinpoints a ship’s location. Known as going dark, a vessel flicks the switch before berthing and typically reappears days later, masking the location of its load or discharge port.
2. Ship-to-Ship Transfers
A first vessel will take its clandestine cargo away from the country in question before transferring it to a waiting ship, all of this happening out of sight. The vessels will then sail in different directions. For about a third of Iranian exports, more than one tanker typically handles a load before it’s delivered to its final destination, analysts say.
3. Fake Destinations
Signaling the wrong destination to load or unload is another technique. Ships that intend to take cargo from Iran may indicate their loading ports in sanction-free places like Iraq. Ships can keep changing their destinations and end up not berthing at any of them.
4. Rebranded Barrels
Iranian barrels can also be rebranded as oil from a nation free from sanctions such as Iraq. The countries share fields along their border and the crude has similar characteristics. Oil from these deposits can be trucked out to another port and documents forged to hide Iran as the origin.
* Bloomberg
The five pillars of Islam
1. Fasting
2. Prayer
3. Hajj
4. Shahada
5. Zakat
The biog
Name: Mohammed Imtiaz
From: Gujranwala, Pakistan
Arrived in the UAE: 1976
Favourite clothes to make: Suit
Cost of a hand-made suit: From Dh550
Wicked
Director: Jon M Chu
Stars: Cynthia Erivo, Ariana Grande, Jonathan Bailey
How The Debt Panel's advice helped readers in 2019
December 11: 'My husband died, so what happens to the Dh240,000 he owes in the UAE?'
JL, a housewife from India, wrote to us about her husband, who died earlier this month. He left behind an outstanding loan of Dh240,000 and she was hoping to pay it off with an insurance policy he had taken out. She also wanted to recover some of her husband’s end-of-service liabilities to help support her and her son.
“I have no words to thank you for helping me out,” she wrote to The Debt Panel after receiving the panellists' comments. “The advice has given me an idea of the present status of the loan and how to take it up further. I will draft a letter and send it to the email ID on the bank’s website along with the death certificate. I hope and pray to find a way out of this.”
November 26: ‘I owe Dh100,000 because my employer has not paid me for a year’
SL, a financial services employee from India, left the UAE in June after quitting his job because his employer had not paid him since November 2018. He owes Dh103,800 on four debts and was told by the panellists he may be able to use the insolvency law to solve his issue.
SL thanked the panellists for their efforts. "Indeed, I have some clarity on the consequence of the case and the next steps to take regarding my situation," he says. "Hopefully, I will be able to provide a positive testimony soon."
October 15: 'I lost my job and left the UAE owing Dh71,000. Can I return?'
MS, an energy sector employee from South Africa, left the UAE in August after losing his Dh12,000 job. He was struggling to meet the repayments while securing a new position in the UAE and feared he would be detained if he returned. He has now secured a new job and will return to the Emirates this month.
“The insolvency law is indeed a relief to hear,” he says. "I will not apply for insolvency at this stage. I have been able to pay something towards my loan and credit card. As it stands, I only have a one-month deficit, which I will be able to recover by the end of December."
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
