Boeing forecasts 44,000 new commercial planes by 2043 as aviation sector grows

US plane maker Boeing has said that demand for new commercial aeroplanes will grow 3.2 per cent annually to hit 43,975 deliveries by 2043, as air passenger travel continues to exceed levels reported before the coronavirus pandemic.

About three quarters, or 33,380, of those jets will be single-aisle variants, which will continue to be the driver for the industry for the next two decades, the Virginia-based company said in its Commercial Market Outlook on Friday.

The world's wide-body fleet is forecast to more than double to 8,065 in that time, with twin-aisle variants accounting for 44 per cent of the Middle East's fleet, Boeing said ahead of the five-day Farnborough International Airshow in the UK, which begins on July 22.

Regional jets and freighters would account for 1,525 and 1,005, respectively.

Overall, the aviation sector's global fleet would hit 50,170 aircraft in 2043, nearly double its estimated number at present, it said.

Passenger air traffic, meanwhile, is projected to grow at an average of 4.7 per cent annually over the next two decades, as the number of global routes served by commercial airlines has returned to 2019 levels, although nearly 20 per cent of them are new, the report said.

All these would require the aviation sector to hire around 2.4 million personnel and result in $4.4 trillion in market services value, Boeing said.

Boeing – mired in operational and legal challenges – attributes its growth estimates to air travel demand continuing to outpace economic growth “in an increasingly connected world”, after being grounded by the pandemic.

It has also declared that air traffic growth has returned to the long-term trend it forecast 20 years ago.

“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through continuing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges,” Brad McMullen, senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing, wrote in a statement.

The global aviation industry has enjoyed a resurgence in the past years after bearing the brunt of the pandemic, as air passengers renew their travel plans.

Boeing's aircraft demand forecast, however, is lower than estimates from its European rival Airbus, which said this week that the world will have 48,230 planes by 2043, compared with 24,240 at the beginning of 2024.

Global air traffic is expected to more than double in the next 20 years, Toulouse-based Airbus said, agreeing that air travel has recovered from the pandemic, boosted by expanding economies.

Airbus has predicted that air traffic will increase by nearly 8 per cent annually until 2027 as the industry quickly recovers from Covid-related losses, before stabilising at a growth rate of 3.6 per cent per year until 2043, it said in its 2024 Global Market Forecast.

Aviation players are also focusing more on new-generation aircraft that are more sustainable and would help operational efficiencies.

“As airlines respond to robust passenger demand, the services market continues to expand, not only as a result of fleet growth, but also with an increased focus on reducing operating costs and deploying efficient and sustainable solutions,” said Dan Abraham, senior vice president of global services commercial sales and marketing at Boeing.

Boeing forecasts the Eurasia region topping both deliveries and overall fleet through 2043 at 9,785 and 11,105 planes, respectively. North America, China, South-East Asia and the Middle East round out the top five.

Traffic growth, however, by 2043 will be led by South Asia at 7.4 per cent, followed by Southeast Asia, Africa, China and Latin America.

Average global airline fares are similar to what they were 20 years ago, even as overall consumer prices doubled, Boeing said.

The global air cargo fleet, meanwhile, is expected to grow by two thirds by 2043, which will account for 4.1 per cent of annual air cargo traffic growth, the company said.

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Verdict: 4 Stars

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Scoreline

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Key changes

Commission caps

For life insurance products with a savings component, Peter Hodgins of Clyde & Co said different caps apply to the saving and protection elements:

• For the saving component, a cap of 4.5 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 90 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).

• On the protection component, there is a cap of 10 per cent of the annualised premium per year (which may not exceed 160 per cent of the annualised premium over the policy term).

• Indemnity commission, the amount of commission that can be advanced to a product salesperson, can be 50 per cent of the annualised premium for the first year or 50 per cent of the total commissions on the policy calculated.

• The remaining commission after deduction of the indemnity commission is paid equally over the premium payment term.

• For pure protection products, which only offer a life insurance component, the maximum commission will be 10 per cent of the annualised premium multiplied by the length of the policy in years.

Disclosure

Customers must now be provided with a full illustration of the product they are buying to ensure they understand the potential returns on savings products as well as the effects of any charges. There is also a “free-look” period of 30 days, where insurers must provide a full refund if the buyer wishes to cancel the policy.

“The illustration should provide for at least two scenarios to illustrate the performance of the product,” said Mr Hodgins. “All illustrations are required to be signed by the customer.”

Another illustration must outline surrender charges to ensure they understand the costs of exiting a fixed-term product early.

Illustrations must also be kept updatedand insurers must provide information on the top five investment funds available annually, including at least five years' performance data.

“This may be segregated based on the risk appetite of the customer (in which case, the top five funds for each segment must be provided),” said Mr Hodgins.

Product providers must also disclose the ratio of protection benefit to savings benefits. If a protection benefit ratio is less than 10 per cent "the product must carry a warning stating that it has limited or no protection benefit" Mr Hodgins added.

THREE POSSIBLE REPLACEMENTS

Khalfan Mubarak
The Al Jazira playmaker has for some time been tipped for stardom within UAE football, with Quique Sanchez Flores, his former manager at Al Ahli, once labelling him a “genius”. He was only 17. Now 23, Mubarak has developed into a crafty supplier of chances, evidenced by his seven assists in six league matches this season. Still to display his class at international level, though.

Rayan Yaslam
The Al Ain attacking midfielder has become a regular starter for his club in the past 15 months. Yaslam, 23, is a tidy and intelligent player, technically proficient with an eye for opening up defences. Developed while alongside Abdulrahman in the Al Ain first-team and has progressed well since manager Zoran Mamic’s arrival. However, made his UAE debut only last December.

Ismail Matar
The Al Wahda forward is revered by teammates and a key contributor to the squad. At 35, his best days are behind him, but Matar is incredibly experienced and an example to his colleagues. His ability to cope with tournament football is a concern, though, despite Matar beginning the season well. Not a like-for-like replacement, although the system could be adjusted to suit.