Global air traffic is expected to more than double in the next 20 years, recovering from the pandemic-induced downturn and as economies expand, with significant demand coming from the Asia-Pacific region, Airbus has said.
The European plane maker predicts air traffic to increase by nearly 8 per cent annually until 2027 as the industry quickly recovers from Covid-related losses, before stabilising at a growth rate of 3.6 per cent per year until 2043, it said in its annual report on Monday.
Airbus expects the world will have 48,230 planes by 2043, compared with 24,240 at the beginning of this year. Nearly 45 per cent of all new deliveries will be to replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft, the plane maker said in its latest 2024 Global Market Forecast.
“Over the last four years, air transportation has again proved its resilience through the deepest and longest crisis in its history. Now, traffic and airline operations are broadly back to pre-Covid levels or higher with a few exceptions,” Airbus said.
"As Covid is behind us, traffic is reconnecting with previous trends. People want and need to fly."
Growth will be driven by an increase in global GDP that is expected to jump more than 2.6 per cent from 2023 to 2043.
Other factors driving air traffic growth include expanding populations, a growing number of middle-class, first-time fliers, increasing trade, improved infrastructure and traffic stimulation from airlines offering new affordable flights, Airbus said in its report.
The report comes as the company’s long-distance A321XLR is expected to receive certification in the coming weeks.
"We see particularly strong growth in Asia and the Middle East, led particularly by India and China," Reuters quoted Bob Lange, head of market analysis and forecasts at Airbus, as saying.
"Domestic China [traffic] will overtake the US," he added.
Where is the growth coming from?
Airbus forecast a demand for more than 42,430 new aircraft during the 2024-2043 period.
The new planes will include passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters with more than 10 tonnes' payload, of which 33,510 will be single-aisle and 8,920 will be wide-bodies.
More than 45 per cent of demand (19,510) is coming from the Asia-Pacific and China markets, Airbus, which is based in Toulouse, France, said in its report.
Asia-Pacific (excluding China) will require about 23.2 per cent (9,990) of the new aircraft, while China will demand approximately 23.1 per cent (9.520).
This will be followed by Europe and the CIS region (8,050), North America (7,100), Latin America (2,570), the Middle East (3,740) and Africa (1,460).
The Asia-Pacific region, particularly China and India, is anticipated to be the "largest market for new aircraft", driven by significant pent-up demand for air travel and economic growth, said Linus Bauer, founder and managing director of consultants BAA & Partners.
The region’s expanding middle class and increasing urbanisation are major factors contributing to this demand, he explained.
“Asia-Pacific is set to experience robust growth, with many countries in the region … especially in South East Asia right now … investing heavily in expanding their aviation infrastructure to meet the rising demand,” Mr Bauer told The National.
Airlines in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, are also expected to be among the biggest buyers. Additionally, airlines in North America and Europe will also be significant buyers, mainly driven by the need to replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft with new, more sustainable models, Mr Bauer said.
Some of the key unserved routes in Africa could potentially boost air travel. They could provide greater connectivity for travellers, drive economic growth in local economies and provide a significant boost in revenue for airlines, Airbus said in a separate report.
Some of the top unserved routes identified in the Airbus analysis are concentrated in cities such as Lagos, Cape Town, Nairobi, Dakar and Douala.
Emphasis on fuel efficiency
New aircraft deliveries will replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft in the coming years, Airbus said.
Currently, nearly 30 per cent of the world’s in-service aircraft fleet are of the latest generation while the remaining are previous generation.
“Short-term priority for decarbonising the sector includes to replace the remaining 70 per cent,” Airbus said.
The new planes will also further reduce fuel burn per revenue passenger kilometre (RPK), which has already halved since 1990, contributing to sustainability goals and efficiency improvements.
RPK is one of the key metrics used in the aviation industry to measure the volume of passenger traffic, defined as the number of kilometres travelled by paying passengers.
Airbus said its decarbonisation efforts include introducing more efficient ways to operate aircraft, using Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) and future technology such as hydrogen and carbon-capture techniques.
Fleet replacement could yield about 25 per cent carbon dioxide savings across the entire Airbus fleet, the company said.
SAF, alternative fuels made from renewable sources that are used to power aircraft, is crucial for the global aviation industry to reach its net-zero goal by 2050. The aviation sector is responsible for about 2 per cent of global carbon-dioxide emissions.
However, its adoption is still in the early stages due to small-scale production and its higher cost than conventional fuel.
All Airbus aircraft are compatible with up to 50 per cent SAF blends, requiring no modifications. Up to 100 per cent capability is targeted by end of decade, the company said in the report.
It also aims to add a hydrogen-powered aircraft to the market by 2035.
Countdown to Zero exhibition will show how disease can be beaten
Countdown to Zero: Defeating Disease, an international multimedia exhibition created by the American Museum of National History in collaboration with The Carter Center, will open in Abu Dhabi a month before Reaching the Last Mile.
Opening on October 15 and running until November 15, the free exhibition opens at The Galleria mall on Al Maryah Island, and has already been seen at the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library and Museum in Atlanta, the American Museum of Natural History in New York, and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Tree of Hell
Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla
Director: Raed Zeno
Rating: 4/5
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Engine 3.5L V6
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Power 421hp @ 6,000rpm
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Fuel economy, combined 14.1L / 100km
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
Major honours
ARSENAL
BARCELONA
- La Liga - 2013
- Copa del Rey - 2012
- Fifa Club World Cup - 2011
CHELSEA
- Premier League - 2015, 2017
- FA Cup - 2018
- League Cup - 2015
SPAIN
- World Cup - 2010
- European Championship - 2008, 2012
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
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What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
Fund-raising tips for start-ups
Develop an innovative business concept
Have the ability to differentiate yourself from competitors
Put in place a business continuity plan after Covid-19
Prepare for the worst-case scenario (further lockdowns, long wait for a vaccine, etc.)
Have enough cash to stay afloat for the next 12 to 18 months
Be creative and innovative to reduce expenses
Be prepared to use Covid-19 as an opportunity for your business
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Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
More from Neighbourhood Watch
The design
The protective shell is covered in solar panels to make use of light and produce energy. This will drastically reduce energy loss.
More than 80 per cent of the energy consumed by the French pavilion will be produced by the sun.
The architecture will control light sources to provide a highly insulated and airtight building.
The forecourt is protected from the sun and the plants will refresh the inner spaces.
A micro water treatment plant will recycle used water to supply the irrigation for the plants and to flush the toilets. This will reduce the pavilion’s need for fresh water by 30 per cent.
Energy-saving equipment will be used for all lighting and projections.
Beyond its use for the expo, the pavilion will be easy to dismantle and reuse the material.
Some elements of the metal frame can be prefabricated in a factory.
From architects to sound technicians and construction companies, a group of experts from 10 companies have created the pavilion.
Work will begin in May; the first stone will be laid in Dubai in the second quarter of 2019.
Construction of the pavilion will take 17 months from May 2019 to September 2020.
Other must-tries
Tomato and walnut salad
A lesson in simple, seasonal eating. Wedges of tomato, chunks of cucumber, thinly sliced red onion, coriander or parsley leaves, and perhaps some fresh dill are drizzled with a crushed walnut and garlic dressing. Do consider yourself warned: if you eat this salad in Georgia during the summer months, the tomatoes will be so ripe and flavourful that every tomato you eat from that day forth will taste lacklustre in comparison.
Badrijani nigvzit
A delicious vegetarian snack or starter. It consists of thinly sliced, fried then cooled aubergine smothered with a thick and creamy walnut sauce and folded or rolled. Take note, even though it seems like you should be able to pick these morsels up with your hands, they’re not as durable as they look. A knife and fork is the way to go.
Pkhali
This healthy little dish (a nice antidote to the khachapuri) is usually made with steamed then chopped cabbage, spinach, beetroot or green beans, combined with walnuts, garlic and herbs to make a vegetable pâté or paste. The mix is then often formed into rounds, chilled in the fridge and topped with pomegranate seeds before being served.
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Learn more about Qasr Al Hosn
In 2013, The National's History Project went beyond the walls to see what life was like living in Abu Dhabi's fabled fort:
