Global air cargo volumes are forecast to decline 4 per cent year-on-year in 2023, after an 8 per cent drop this year, amid challenging economic headwinds, the International Air Transport Association (Iata) said.
Cargo volume will decrease to 57.7 million tonnes next year, down from 60.3 million tonnes this year, as the market cools down after strong periods of growth during the Covid-19 pandemic, Iata said in its latest forecast on Wednesday.
"This primarily reflects the more challenging global economic backdrop both in terms of global economic growth but also in terms of international trade," Andrew Matters, head of economic analysis and policy at Iata, told reporters in Geneva. "We're also expecting to see that yields are going to unwind in 2023."
Cargo yields will drop 22.6 per cent next year, following a rise of 7.2 per cent this year, according to Iata's forecasts. This is a slowdown from the highs of 52 per cent growth in yields in 2020 and 24 per cent last year during the Covid-19 pandemic.
"We don't think that's sustainable," Mr Matters said. "A 22 per cent [decline] sounds pretty dramatic but ... you can see it doesn't look too unreasonable at all and the reason for that, of course, is the very strong increases we've seen in recent years. The unwind we're seeing follows those three pretty strong years of yield increases."
With lower yield and volume, cargo revenue is also forecast to decline.
Cargo revenue is expected to reach $149.4 billion next year, down from $201.4 billion this year, but this is still about 50 per cent higher than its pre-pandemic levels, Iata says.
Cargo's share of total revenue of airlines is therefore also expected to decline.
The cargo business' share of total revenue peaked at 40 per cent last year, which will ease to 28 per cent this year and drop further next year to 19 per cent, Mr Matters said.
This is due to the decline in cargo revenue and the simultaneous increase in passenger revenue, he said.
"We think the air cargo market is cooling after what has been a very strong and very unusual period for the market and we expect that this is going to continue into 2023," Mr Matters said. "It's not all bad news, a lot of it is just coming back from unsustainably high levels."
Freighter deliveries
At the same time as air cargo demand is moderating, freighter deliveries to airlines are reaching peak levels.
The rolling two-year average of freighter deliveries is at its highest point since 2012, Mr Matters said.
This additional freighter capacity, along with the ongoing recovery in belly capacity as airlines return more passenger jets into service, will pressure cargo yields, he said.
Gulf airlines such as Emirates and Qatar Airways have recently invested in freighter orders to expand their cargo fleet.
However, there is always a lag between ordering and delivery of aircraft and the long-term outlook for cargo is a "much more positive story", Mr Matters said.
"Airlines that are putting in orders now, by the time they take delivery of those aircraft, we could well be in that period of upswing where volumes have picked up, so the timing could be spot on," he said. "The long-term outlook is more positive for air cargo than what we're looking at for 2023."
Upside risks to the outlook
Despite the softening freight market indicators for next year, the upside risks to the air cargo outlook are "not insignificant", Mr Matters said.
For example, if the Russia-Ukraine war was resolved soon, then business and consumer confidence would rebound "quite quickly", leading to a recovery in economic activity, consumer spending, business investment and international trade — all of which would be positive for the air cargo market going forward, he said.
Continued global supply chain disruption may adversely affect the shipping industry and present an opportunity for air cargo growth as businesses try to plug the gaps in their inventory, he said.
E-commerce growth
The air cargo sector is also expected to continue to benefit from e-commerce demand that boomed during the pandemic when people were shopping online due to lockdown measures.
The value of e-commerce globally is expected to reach $5.7 trillion this year and $7.3 trillion in 2025, Brendan Sullivan, Iata's global head of cargo, said on Wednesday.
Online retail sales globally have reached 21 per cent this year and even with the drop in consumer spending overall, are forecast to continue to grow overall, he said.
This translates to 159 billion parcels sent this year, about four times more than eight years ago.
The number of parcels sent in 2014 was 143 billion and this will nearly double by 2027 to 260 billion parcels, Mr Sullivan added.
About 80 per cent of cross-border e-commerce is shipped by air, showing that air cargo is built to support e-commerce demand, he said.
About 18-20 per cent of air cargo is e-commerce, according to Iata.
RESULTS
6.30pm UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (TB) US$100,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner Final Song, Christophe Soumillon (jockey), Saeed bin Suroor (trainer).
7.05pm Handicap (TB) $135,000 (Turf) 1,000m
Winner Almanaara, Dane O’Neill, Doug Watson.
7.40pm Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner Grand Argentier, Brett Doyle, Doug Watson.
8.15pm Meydan Challenge Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 1,400m
Winner Major Partnership, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor.
8.50pm Dubai Stakes Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
9.25pm Dubai Racing Club Classic Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,410m
Winner Universal Order, Richard Mullen, David Simcock.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
BLACKBERRY
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Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Non-oil%20trade
%3Cp%3ENon-oil%20trade%20between%20the%20UAE%20and%20Japan%20grew%20by%2034%20per%20cent%20over%20the%20past%20two%20years%2C%20according%20to%20data%20from%20the%20Federal%20Competitiveness%20and%20Statistics%20Centre.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%2010%20years%2C%20it%20has%20reached%20a%20total%20of%20Dh524.4%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECars%20topped%20the%20list%20of%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20re-exported%20to%20Japan%20in%202022%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh1.3%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJewellery%20and%20ornaments%20amounted%20to%20Dh150%20million%20while%20precious%20metal%20scraps%20amounted%20to%20Dh105%20million.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERaw%20aluminium%20was%20ranked%20first%20among%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20exported%20to%20Japan.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETop%20of%20the%20list%20of%20commodities%20imported%20from%20Japan%20in%202022%20was%20cars%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh20.08%20billion.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
THE CLOWN OF GAZA
Director: Abdulrahman Sabbah
Starring: Alaa Meqdad
Rating: 4/5
In numbers
- Number of children under five will fall from 681 million in 2017 to 401m in 2100
- Over-80s will rise from 141m in 2017 to 866m in 2100
- Nigeria will become the world’s second most populous country with 791m by 2100, behind India
- China will fall dramatically from a peak of 2.4 billion in 2024 to 732 million by 2100
- an average of 2.1 children per woman is required to sustain population growth
QUALIFYING RESULTS
1. Max Verstappen, Netherlands, Red Bull Racing Honda, 1 minute, 35.246 seconds.
2. Valtteri Bottas, Finland, Mercedes, 1:35.271.
3. Lewis Hamilton, Great Britain, Mercedes, 1:35.332.
4. Lando Norris, Great Britain, McLaren Renault, 1:35.497.
5. Alexander Albon, Thailand, Red Bull Racing Honda, 1:35.571.
6. Carlos Sainz Jr, Spain, McLaren Renault, 1:35.815.
7. Daniil Kvyat, Russia, Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda, 1:35.963.
8. Lance Stroll, Canada, Racing Point BWT Mercedes, 1:36.046.
9. Charles Leclerc, Monaco, Ferrari, 1:36.065.
10. Pierre Gasly, France, Scuderia Toro Rosso Honda, 1:36.242.
Eliminated after second session
11. Esteban Ocon, France, Renault, 1:36.359.
12. Daniel Ricciardo, Australia, Renault, 1:36.406.
13. Sebastian Vettel, Germany, Ferrari, 1:36.631.
14. Antonio Giovinazzi, Italy, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:38.248.
Eliminated after first session
15. Antonio Giovinazzi, Italy, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:37.075.
16. Kimi Raikkonen, Finland, Alfa Romeo Racing Ferrari, 1:37.555.
17. Kevin Magnussen, Denmark, Haas Ferrari, 1:37.863.
18. George Russell, Great Britain, Williams Mercedes, 1:38.045.
19. Pietro Fittipaldi, Brazil, Haas Ferrari, 1:38.173.
20. Nicholas Latifi, Canada, Williams Mercedes, 1:38.443.
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
- Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
- Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
- Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
- Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
- Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
- Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
- Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
Company%C2%A0profile
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The specs: 2019 Audi A7 Sportback
Price, base: Dh315,000
Engine: 3.0-litre V6
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 335hp @ 5,000rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,370rpm
Fuel economy 5.9L / 100km
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
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