Asian shares erased earlier modest gains on Friday but were still on track for a weekly rise, as sentiment was hurt by Wall Street’s weakness on concerns about the progress of U.S. tax reform.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.5 per cent, but poised to gain 0.7 per cent for the week.
Chinese shares slumped, with the Shanghai Composite index off 0.9 per cent and the blue-chip index down 1 percent.
Japan's Nikkei stock index was down 0.1 per cent, off its session lows, but still down 0.6 per cent for the week, even amid fresh signs the economy is gathering momentum.
Big Japanese manufacturers’ business confidence improved for a fifth straight quarter in the three months to December to hit an 11-year high, the Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey showed.
“The Nikkei came off its lows in the afternoon, largely on futures-led buying,” said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust. “But regional sentiment is still fragile, which will limit its upside.”
On Thursday, U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped to near a 44-1/2-year low last week. That pointed to sustained strength in the economy that could pave the way for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes next year.
The Fed hiked interest rates on Wednesday but left its rate outlook for the coming years unchanged even as policymakers projected a short-term jump in U.S. economic growth from the Trump administration’s proposed tax cuts.
“The Fed’s move this week was largely perceived as a dovish hike,” said Bill Northey, chief investment officer at the private client group of U.S. Bank in Helena, Montana.
“It was ultimately well within expectations, and I think the one surprise was how strong the upgrade was for 2018 without any corresponding upgrade for their expectations for inflation,” he said. “That keeps our expectations around three rate hikes for 2018.”
On Wall Street on Thursday, major U.S. stock indexes fell, with the S&P 500 down the most in a month, as investor worries over potential roadblocks to the Republicans' tax overhaul more than offset optimism over the strong data.
Republicans in the U.S. Congress reached a deal this week on a final version of their debt-financed legislation to cut taxes for businesses and wealthy Americans, with House and Senate votes expected early next week. But the bill has yet to get needed support of some key Senators, and investors worry about downward pressure on stocks if the bill were to fail.
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six rival currencies, was up 0.1 per cent at 93.606, down 0.3 percent for the week.
The dollar steadied against the yen at 112.38, nearly flat on the day but down 1 per cent for the week, and moving away from a one-month high of 113.75 yen touched on Tuesday.
The euro was steady at $1.1780. On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised growth and inflation forecasts for the euro area, but stuck with its pledge to provide stimulus for as long as needed.
Sterling was steady at $1.3436. The Bank of England also left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected.
Bitcoin was up 4.1 per cent on the Bitstamp exchange at $17,082.37, after earlier matching a record high of 17,428.42 set on Tuesday.
Crude oil futures extended gains, after rising on Thursday as a pipeline outage in Britain continued to support prices despite forecasts showing global crude surplus in the beginning of next year.
U.S. crude added 0.3 per cent, or 15 cents, to $57.19 a barrel, after gaining 0.8 per cent overnight. Brent crude futures were up 0.1 per cent, or 5 cents, at $63.35.
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
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Ms Yang's top tips for parents new to the UAE
- Join parent networks
- Look beyond school fees
- Keep an open mind
Pathaan
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”