Egyptians protesters waving national flags are reflected in rain water in Cairo's Tahrir Square during a mass rally on January 25, 2012 marking the first anniversary of the uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak, while a debate raged over whether the rally was a celebration or a second push for change. AFP PHOTO/MAHMUD HAMS
Egyptians protesters waving national flags are reflected in rain water in Cairo's Tahrir Square during a mass rally on January 25, 2012 marking the first anniversary of the uprising that toppled HosniShow more

Arab Spring may not bloom into stability



With the fall of their dictators last year many say a new era of peace and prosperity awaits the likes of Libya, Egypt and Tunisia. But it is not as simple as that, Binod Shankar writes.

There is this idea floating around that since the dictatorships in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen have been kicked out, these countries are going to see huge foreign investment inflows.

In addition, so the argument goes, unemployment will dip and capital markets are going to soar.

The theory says that in the short term things will be chaotic but in the long term democracy will result in more open, larger economies.

At least that is what I hear at dinner parties.

This is patently and dangerously false. Let me be absolutely frank; democracy does not always translate into economic growth and especially in parts of the Middle East and North Africa region that is even less certain.

Many people seem to think that if all the money stolen by Libya's Qaddafi, and allegedly by Tunisia's deposed leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, is brought back, then all the economic problems will be solved. While the fight against corruption is an important part of measures aimed at stimulating growth, this is far from enough.

These countries need to strengthen institution-building, respect for the rule of law, education, work ethic and physical infrastructure rather than just bring back a few stolen billions.

The sense of entitlement is another issue. Ever since Egypt's former leader Hussein's mix of nationalism and socialism spread throughout the Middle East in the 1950s and 1960s, Arab economies have been dominated by the government. So much so that the private sector is small and feeble.

And at the micro level, there is a shocking sense of entitlement that the government owes everyone a living and everyone's dream is a government job. You are nothing if you don't have one and being self-employed is seen as the last refuge of the really desperate. Unless this attitude changes, what this will build is a vast, incompetent and corrupt bureaucracy that holds back economic growth, reinforcing a vicious cycle that led to the uprisings in the first place.

The rise of political Islam is another reason to be cautious. It is dangerous and misleading to link religion with economic growth but secular parties have little influence in Arab Spring countries. If the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power in Egypt, as it was claiming yesterday, it may take an aggressively anti-United States foreign policy, something which will play very well to the masses and vested interests in the religious hierarchy. Venezuela, Iraq and the Iran are examples that spring to mind.

An anti-US stance would be a big mistake, slowing foreign investment to a trickle and at worst introducing the risk of sanctions.

The tribal structure of many of the Arab Spring nations is another factor of instability. The former regimes put a lid on tribal rivalry through their oppressive internal security networks and often playing off one tribe against the other. The Arab Spring has validated a resurgence of tribal allegiance and this presents major risks to the integrity of some nation states in the region. A sobering lesson in what could follow was witnessed after the death of Tito, the Yugoslav dictator who died in office in 1980. It has been 17 years since the Dayton Accord halted hostilities in the Balkans, but Zagreb and Sarajevo are still near the bottom of any investor's hitlist.

There are few examples of successful democratic transition in the Arab world. Lebanon could be seen as the only democracy in the region, but behind the antics and controversies is a perfect example of what can go wrong. More than two decades after the civil war ended, Lebanon is still a basket-case economically, politically and militarily.

Once the glow of change fades, disenchantment could set in if the young still have no jobs and corruption remains endemic.

The incumbents risk being removed quickly to be replaced by another gang and I would not be surprised if many residents soon felt a pang of nostalgia for the days of dictatorship.

Investors will be reluctant to commit funds to a country where governments and policies can change overnight. The market may not reward investors for being particularly brave.

Binod Shankar is a CFA charter holder and is the Managing Director of Genesis Institute, a financial training company based in Dubai

twitter: Follow and share our breaking business news. Follow us

iPad users can follow our twitterfeed via Flipboard - just search for Ind_Insights on the app.

ATP WORLD No 1

2004 Roger Federer

2005 Roger Federer

2006 Roger Federer

2007 Roger Federer

2008 Rafael Nadal

2009 Roger Federer

2010 Rafael Nadal

2011 Novak Djokovic

2012 Novak Djokovic

2013 Rafael Nadal

2014 Novak Djokovic

2015 Novak Djokovic

2016 Andy Murray

2017 Rafael Nadal

2018 Novak Djokovic

2019 Rafael Nadal

The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

The specs

Engine: 1.5-litre 4-cylinder petrol

Power: 154bhp

Torque: 250Nm

Transmission: 7-speed automatic with 8-speed sports option 

Price: From Dh79,600

On sale: Now

Ferrari
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Michael%20Mann%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Adam%20Driver%2C%20Penelope%20Cruz%2C%20Shailene%20Woodley%2C%20Patrick%20Dempsey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
10 tips for entry-level job seekers
  • Have an up-to-date, professional LinkedIn profile. If you don’t have a LinkedIn account, set one up today. Avoid poor-quality profile pictures with distracting backgrounds. Include a professional summary and begin to grow your network.
  • Keep track of the job trends in your sector through the news. Apply for job alerts at your dream organisations and the types of jobs you want – LinkedIn uses AI to share similar relevant jobs based on your selections.
  • Double check that you’ve highlighted relevant skills on your resume and LinkedIn profile.
  • For most entry-level jobs, your resume will first be filtered by an applicant tracking system for keywords. Look closely at the description of the job you are applying for and mirror the language as much as possible (while being honest and accurate about your skills and experience).
  • Keep your CV professional and in a simple format – make sure you tailor your cover letter and application to the company and role.
  • Go online and look for details on job specifications for your target position. Make a list of skills required and set yourself some learning goals to tick off all the necessary skills one by one.
  • Don’t be afraid to reach outside your immediate friends and family to other acquaintances and let them know you are looking for new opportunities.
  • Make sure you’ve set your LinkedIn profile to signal that you are “open to opportunities”. Also be sure to use LinkedIn to search for people who are still actively hiring by searching for those that have the headline “I’m hiring” or “We’re hiring” in their profile.
  • Prepare for online interviews using mock interview tools. Even before landing interviews, it can be useful to start practising.
  • Be professional and patient. Always be professional with whoever you are interacting with throughout your search process, this will be remembered. You need to be patient, dedicated and not give up on your search. Candidates need to make sure they are following up appropriately for roles they have applied.

Arda Atalay, head of Mena private sector at LinkedIn Talent Solutions, Rudy Bier, managing partner of Kinetic Business Solutions and Ben Kinerman Daltrey, co-founder of KinFitz

The Specs:

The Specs:

Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo

Transmission: 8-speed automatic

Power: 444bhp

Torque: 600Nm

Price: AED 356,580 incl VAT

On sale: now.

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Vault%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJune%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EBilal%20Abou-Diab%20and%20Sami%20Abdul%20Hadi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ELicensed%20by%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Global%20Market%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EInvestment%20and%20wealth%20advisory%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%241%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOutliers%20VC%20and%20angel%20investors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E14%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Key facilities
  • Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
  • Premier League-standard football pitch
  • 400m Olympic running track
  • NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
  • 600-seat auditorium
  • Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
  • An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
  • Specialist robotics and science laboratories
  • AR and VR-enabled learning centres
  • Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Director: Jon Favreau

Starring: Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, John Oliver

Rating: 2 out of 5 stars

Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERooh%20Afza%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20contains%20414%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETang%20orange%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECarob%20beverage%20mix%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20about%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQamar%20Al%20Din%20apricot%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20saving%20contains%2061%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVimto%20fruit%20squash%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%2030%20calories%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20Z%20FOLD%204
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20display%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%207.6%22%20QXGA%2B%20Dynamic%20Amoled%202X%2C%202176%20x%201812%2C%2021.6%3A18%2C%20374ppi%2C%20HDR10%2B%2C%20up%20to%20120Hz%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECover%20display%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%206.2%22%20HD%2B%20Dynamic%20Amoled%202X%2C%202316%20x%20904%2C%2023.1%3A9%2C%20402ppi%2C%20up%20to%20120Hz%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EProcessor%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Qualcomm%20Snapdragon%208%2B%20Gen%201%2C%204nm%2C%20octa-core%3B%20Adreno%20730%20GPU%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMemory%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012GB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECapacity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%C2%A0256%2F512GB%20%2F%201TB%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPlatform%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Android%2012%2C%20One%20UI%204.1.1%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EMain%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Triple%2012MP%20ultra-wide%20(f%2F2.2)%20%2B%2050MP%20wide%20(f%2F1.8)%20%2B%2010MP%20telephoto%20(f%2F2.4)%2C%20dual%20OIS%2C%203x%20optical%20zoom%2C%2030x%20Space%20Zoom%2C%20portrait%2C%20super%20slo-mo%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVideo%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%208K%4024fps%2C%204K%4030%2F60fps%2C%20full-HD%4030%2F60fps%2C%20HD%4030fps%3B%20slo-mo%4060%2F240%2F960fps%3B%20HDR10%2B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECover%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010MP%20(f%2F2.2)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EInner%20front%20camera%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Under-display%204MP%20(f%2F1.8)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204400mAh%2C%2025W%20fast%20charging%2C%2015W%20wireless%20charging%2C%20reverse%20wireless%20charging%2C%20'all-day'%20life%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EConnectivity%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%205G%3B%20Wi-Fi%2C%20Bluetooth%205.2%2C%20NFC%20(Samsung%20Pay)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EI%2FO%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20USB-C%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECards%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nano-SIM%20%2B%20eSIM%3B%202%20nano-SIMs%20%2B%20eSIM%3B%202%20nano-SIMs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EColours%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Graygreen%2C%20phantom%20black%2C%20beige%2C%20burgundy%20(online%20exclusive)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIn%20the%20box%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fold%204%2C%20USB-C-to-USB-C%20cable%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dh6%2C799%20%2F%20Dh7%2C249%20%2F%20Dh8%2C149%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

'Tell the Machine Goodnight' by Katie Williams 
Penguin Randomhouse

The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%20turbocharged%204-cyl%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E8-speed%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E300bhp%20(GT)%20330bhp%20(Modena)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E450Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDh299%2C000%20(GT)%2C%20Dh369%2C000%20(Modena)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3Enow%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Volvo ES90 Specs

Engine: Electric single motor (96kW), twin motor (106kW) and twin motor performance (106kW)

Power: 333hp, 449hp, 680hp

Torque: 480Nm, 670Nm, 870Nm

On sale: Later in 2025 or early 2026, depending on region

Price: Exact regional pricing TBA

COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EElmawkaa%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hub71%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Ebrahem%20Anwar%2C%20Mahmoud%20Habib%20and%20Mohamed%20Thabet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20PropTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETotal%20funding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24400%2C000%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E500%20Startups%2C%20Flat6Labs%20and%20angel%20investors%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2012%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Director: Romany Saad
Starring: Mirfat Amin, Boumi Fouad and Tariq Al Ibyari