About 20 million jobs are at risk in Africa as the continent's economies are projected to shrink this year due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, according an African Union (AU) study.
So far, Africa accounts for just a fraction of total cases of the disease which has infected more than one million people worldwide, according to a Reuters tally.
But African economies are already facing an impending global economic downturn, plummeting oil and commodity prices and an imploding tourism sector.
Before the onset of the pandemic, continent-wide gross domestic product (GDP) growth had been projected by the African Development Bank to reach 3.4 per cent this year.
However, in both scenarios modelled by the AU study - seen by Reuters and entitled "Impact of the coronavirus on the Africa economy" - GDP will now shrink.
Under what the AU researchers deemed their realistic scenario, Africa's economy will shrink 0.8 per cent, while the pessimistic scenario said there would be a 1.1 per cent dip.
Up to 15 per cent for foreign direct investment could disappear.
The impact on employment will be dramatic.
"Nearly 20 million jobs, both in the formal and informal sectors, are threatened with destruction on the continent if the situation continues," the analysis said.
African governments could lose up to 20 to 30 per cent of their fiscal revenue, estimated at $500 billion (Dh 1.8 trillion) in 2019, it found.
Exports and imports are meanwhile projected to drop at least 35 per cent from 2019 levels, incurring a loss in the value of trade of around $270bn. This at a time when the fight against the virus' spread will lead to an increase in public spending of at least $130bn.
Africa's oil producers, which have seen the value of their crude exports plunge in past weeks, will be among the worst hit.
Sub-Saharan Africa's biggest oil producers Nigeria and Angola alone could lose $65bn in income. African oil exporters are expected to see their budget deficits double this year while their economies shrink 3 per cent on average.
African tourist destinations will also suffer.
Africa has in recent years been among the fastest growing regions in the world for tourism. But with borders now closed to prevent the disease's spread and entire airlines grounded, the sector has been almost entirely shut down.
Countries where tourism constitutes a large part of GDP will see their economies contract by an average of 3.3 per cent this year. However, Africa's major tourism spots Seychelles, Cape Verde, Mauritius and Gambia will shrink at least 7 per cent.
"Under the average scenario, the tourism and travel sector in Africa could lose at least $50bn due to the covid-19 pandemic and at least 2 million direct and indirect jobs," the AU study said.
Remittances from Africans living abroad - the continent's largest financial inflow over the past decade - are unlikely to cushion the blow.
"With economic activity in the doldrums in many advanced and emerging market countries, remittances to Africa could experience significant declines," the analysis found.
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
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Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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4,872 matches
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116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
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Engine: Dual-motor all-wheel-drive electric
Range: Up to 610km
Power: 905hp
Torque: 985Nm
Price: From Dh439,000
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57kg – Tak Chuen Suen (MAC) beat Phuong Xuan Nguyen (VIE) 29-28; Almaz Sarsembekov (KAZ) beat Zakaria Eljamari (UAE) by points 30-27.
67kg – Mohammed Mardi (UAE) beat Huong The Nguyen (VIE) by points 30-27; Narin Wonglakhon (THA) v Mojtaba Taravati Aram (IRI) by points 29-28.
60kg – Yerkanat Ospan (KAZ) beat Amir Hosein Kaviani (IRI) 30-27; Long Doan Nguyen (VIE) beat Ibrahim Bilal (UAE) 29-28
63.5kg – Abil Galiyev (KAZ) beat Truong Cao Phat (VIE) 30-27; Nouredine Samir (UAE) beat Norapat Khundam (THA) RSC round 3.
71kg – Shaker Al Tekreeti (IRQ) beat Fawzi Baltagi (LBN) 30-27; Amine El Moatassime (UAE) beat Man Kongsib (THA) 29-28
81kg – Ilyass Hbibali (UAE) beat Alexandr Tsarikov (KAZ) 29-28; Khaled Tarraf (LBN) beat Mustafa Al Tekreeti (IRQ) 30-27
86kg – Ali Takaloo (IRI) beat Mohammed Al Qahtani (KSA) RSC round 1; Emil Umayev (KAZ) beat Ahmad Bahman (UAE) TKO round
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Man of the Match: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton)
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Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina
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FIXTURES
Nov 04-05: v Western Australia XI, Perth
Nov 08-11: v Cricket Australia XI, Adelaide
Nov 15-18 v Cricket Australia XI, Townsville (d/n)
Nov 23-27: 1ST TEST v AUSTRALIA, Brisbane
Dec 02-06: 2ND TEST v AUSTRALIA, Adelaide (d/n)
Dec 09-10: v Cricket Australia XI, Perth
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Dec 26-30 4TH TEST v AUSTRALIA, Melbourne
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Corporate Leadership: Carl Bistany (Lebanon)
Cultural Excellence: Hoor Al Qasimi (UAE)
Environmental Development and Sustainability: Bkerzay (Lebanon)
Environmental Development and Sustainability: Raya Ani (Iraq)
Humanitarian and Civic Services: Women’s Programs Association (Lebanon)
Humanitarian and Civic Services: Osamah Al Thini (Libya)
Excellence in Education: World Innovation Summit for Education (WISE) (Qatar)
Outstanding Arab Woman: Balghis Badri (Sudan)
Scientific and Technological Achievement: Mohamed Slim Alouini (KSA)
Young Entrepreneur: Omar Itani (Lebanon)
Lifetime Achievement: Suad Al Amiry (Palestine)
