With foreign aid set to decline and Nato forces soon to withdraw, what hope there is in Afghanistan lies under the ground. But much of those mineral riches are likely to remain out of reach for the near future.
Last week, the apparent exit of ExxonMobil from the group of companies vying for oil rights in the Tajik Basin signalled waning appetite among top-tier investors to take on operations in a place with deteriorating security, a lack of infrastructure and a reputation for corruption.
"It is difficult to see Afghanistan benefiting from the exploitation of its natural resources in the near or medium term," says Claudine Fry, the regional analyst for Control Risks, a risk consultancy in London. "The extraction of oil in large quantities is a long-term prospect at best given the security, political and operational challenges facing investors."
The apparent indifference of the world's largest non-state oil company is a bleak sign for a country with an uncertain future.
Yet there is so much potential in Afghanistan.
Indeed, by some measures, a nascent oil rush is already taking off in the country.
Companies from around the world, including the UAE, are due to submit bids for oil exploration this month.
Soon after, Afghanistan is set to start pumping oil in small but commercial quantities for the first time in its history, the first drops of 1.9 billion barrels of recoverable reserves estimated to lie underground.
The total value of the nation's natural resources - from gold to lithium to iron ore - has been estimated at US$1 trillion (Dh3.67tn).
For a model of how to get that wealth out of the ground and into the economy, Afghans can look to the Kurdistan region of Iraq.
When it emerged from Iraq's most recent war, Iraqi Kurdistan was untapped like Afghanistan and likewise without reliable roads, electricity or other key infrastructure.
Small independent operators, wooed by lucrative contracts from the Kurdish authorities, started pumping oil in the face of a blacklisting policy enforced Iraq's central government.
ExxonMobil joined them last year with six exploration licences, and the move was taken as validation for the independents and the regional government alike, as well as a green light for other oil majors such as Chevron and Total to follow - which they soon did.
So when the Afghan mining ministry announced in July that ExxonMobil was among the companies shortlisted to bid for a Tajik Basin concession, it was a ray of hope for the fledgling oil sector.
Until then Afghanistan had awarded only one concession, to China National Petroleum Corporation and a company controlled by relatives of the president Hamid Karzai half a year earlier.
That mood changed last week, when Wahidullah Shahrani, the mining minister, revealed that ExxonMobil had not taken up an invitation to visit the concession area. With the deadline to submit bids at the end of this month, the statement was taken as a sign that not just ExxonMobil but other western oil majors would shy away from Afghanistan.
ExxonMobil declined to say if it had visited the site or if it intended to bid.
"As a matter of practice we do not comment on lease sales until the final results have been released by the government," said Patrick McGinn, an ExxonMobil spokesman.
That comes as Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the Nato secretary general, signals that forces could withdraw earlier than their 2014 timetable.
Security concerns are even holding up Chinese efforts to extract copper, a sign that non-western corporations are not immune to the risks. Among the companies shortlisted to bid in the forthcoming oil rights tender is Dragon Oil, the operator that is majority-owned by Dubai's Emirates National Oil Company.
"The future stability of Afghanistan has been plunged further into doubt as militants have demonstrated enduring strength with continued operations, 'green-on-blue' attacks have forced a slowdown on the training of Afghan security forces and talks with the Taliban have stalled," says Ms Fry. "Green-on-blue" is a reference to attacks on Nato forces by rogue members of the Afghan security forces.
"Security concerns are reportedly slowing progress at the Aynak copper mine in [the Afghan province of] Logar, which is being developed by the Chinese, which is telling", she continued.
The threats to the sector are compounded by delays to a mineral extraction law designed to attract western investment, which some local critics said was too favourable to western interests.
Such laws, along with initiatives to monitor mining operations and profit flows to the government, are needed to build an extractive sector that will function in the long term, says Juman Kubba of Global Witness, a non-profit organisation that aims to stop conflict in resource-rich nations.
"As people are thinking about [Nato's] withdrawal, they are thinking about alternatives to aid and the extractive sector is the one bright spot by the government and by the international community," says Ms Kubba. "So there's a lot of pressure to get a lot of deals signed as soon as possible.
"Your focus needs to be on creating the right foundation for Afghanistan, so just getting deals out the door isn't the right attitude."
ayee@thenational.ae
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
The more serious side of specialty coffee
While the taste of beans and freshness of roast is paramount to the specialty coffee scene, so is sustainability and workers’ rights.
The bulk of genuine specialty coffee companies aim to improve on these elements in every stage of production via direct relationships with farmers. For instance, Mokha 1450 on Al Wasl Road strives to work predominantly with women-owned and -operated coffee organisations, including female farmers in the Sabree mountains of Yemen.
Because, as the boutique’s owner, Garfield Kerr, points out: “women represent over 90 per cent of the coffee value chain, but are woefully underrepresented in less than 10 per cent of ownership and management throughout the global coffee industry.”
One of the UAE’s largest suppliers of green (meaning not-yet-roasted) beans, Raw Coffee, is a founding member of the Partnership of Gender Equity, which aims to empower female coffee farmers and harvesters.
Also, globally, many companies have found the perfect way to recycle old coffee grounds: they create the perfect fertile soil in which to grow mushrooms.
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Super%20Mario%20Bros%20Wonder
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDeveloper%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20EPD%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EConsole%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENintendo%20Switch%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Khaldoon%20Bushnaq%20and%20Tariq%20Seksek%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Global%20Market%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20HealthTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20100%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%20to%20date%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2415%20million%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
HER%20FIRST%20PALESTINIAN
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Saeed%20Teebi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%C2%A0House%20of%20Anansi%20Press%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
- Professional ethics.
Engine: 80 kWh four-wheel-drive
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 402bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: From Dh280,000
Our Time Has Come
Alyssa Ayres, Oxford University Press
Results
Stage 4
1. Dylan Groenewegen (NED) Jumbo-Visma 04:16:13
2. Gaviria (COL) UAE Team Emirates
3. Pascal Ackermann (GER) Bora-Hansgrohe
4. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal
General Classification:
1. Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 16:46:15
2. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:07
3. Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 0:01:35
4. David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:40
5. Rafal Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
Real estate tokenisation project
Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.
The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.
Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
The biog
Age: 19
Profession: medical student at UAE university
Favourite book: The Ocean at The End of The Lane by Neil Gaiman
Role model: Parents, followed by Fazza (Shiekh Hamdan bin Mohammed)
Favourite poet: Edger Allen Poe
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Dubai World Cup prize money
Group 1 (Purebred Arabian) 2000m Dubai Kahayla Classic - $750,000
Group 2 1,600m(Dirt) Godolphin Mile - $750,000
Group 2 3,200m (Turf) Dubai Gold Cup – $750,000
Group 1 1,200m (Turf) Al Quoz Sprint – $1,000,000
Group 2 1,900m(Dirt) UAE Derby – $750,000
Group 1 1,200m (Dirt) Dubai Golden Shaheen – $1,500,000
Group 1 1,800m (Turf) Dubai Turf – $4,000,000
Group 1 2,410m (Turf) Dubai Sheema Classic – $5,000,000
Group 1 2,000m (Dirt) Dubai World Cup– $12,000,000
Stage 5 results
1 Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 3:48:53
2 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team -
3 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott -
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:00:04
5 Ilnur Zakarin (RUS) CCC Team 0:00:07
General Classification:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 20:35:04
2 Tadej Pogacar (SlO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:01
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 0:01:33
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:48
5 Rafał Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe 0:02:11
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Power: 110 horsepower
Torque: 147Nm
Price: From Dh59,700
On sale: now
The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
UAE'S%20YOUNG%20GUNS
%3Cp%3E1%20Esha%20Oza%2C%20age%2026%2C%2079%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E2%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20age%2020%2C%2066%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E3%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20age%2021%2C%2065%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E4%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20age%2021%2C%2079%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E5%20Heena%20Hotchandani%2C%20age%2023%2C%2016%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E6%20Rinitha%20Rajith%2C%20age%2018%2C%2034%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E7%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20age%2017%2C%2053%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E8%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh%2C%20age%2017%2C%2068%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E9%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20age%2017%2C%2033%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E10%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20age%2018%2C%2033%20matches%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E11%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20age%2018%2C%2046%20matches%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Second ODI
England 322-7 (50 ovs)
India 236 (50 ovs)
England win by 86 runs
Next match: Tuesday, July 17, Headingley
