US President Donald Trump's strategy to expand domestic energy production and exports – by fast-tracking permits, easing climate regulations and introducing tax cuts – will encounter major hurdles, experts say.
These challenges include changing market realities, as well as Mr Trump's own policies, such as rolling back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and initiating trade wars with China and key allies, they suggest.
Following the declaration of a national energy emergency last month, the US Army Corps of Engineers has released data identifying more than 600 potential infrastructure projects, primarily within the energy sector, that may receive expedited review.
At the Future Investment Initiative Priority Summit in Miami on Wednesday, Mr Trump proposed cutting taxes for US oil and gas producers and allowing companies to expense 100 per cent of investments in domestic factory construction and other capital expenditure.
“The energy dominance agenda starts at home and it is already an uphill struggle against market dynamics,” said Francesco Sassi, research fellow at Ricerche Industriali Energetiche in Bologna. "Trump wants less state intervention and more market influence in shaping the energy strategies of American oil and gas giants."
He promises tax cuts for producers, nudging some to favour the domestic market, “but what if the biggest opportunities lie abroad? Would they quietly accept trade barriers and US isolation?”
Mr Trump’s return has been a mixed bag for energy industry players so far, with tariff threats against Canada and Mexico – the largest suppliers of crude to the US – a move that will shrink margins for American refiners and force them to source crude from other markets.
Meanwhile, most US oil producers are not planning to boost output unless oil prices rise significantly.
“With US shale companies focusing on capital discipline, there are two ways that crude production could grow a bit faster – via a sustained oil price increase or via lower production costs,” Giovanni Staunovo, strategist at UBS, told The National.
Potential tax cuts will create “room to cut costs”, depending on their magnitude, said Mr Staunovo, who has maintained his US crude growth forecast at 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year despite recent developments.
This month, the US Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for 2025 domestic oil production to 13.59 million bpd, up from its previous estimate of 13.55 million, citing improved efficiency.
Oil prices have retreated from the highs reached after the Russia-Ukraine war, as western sanctions largely redirected Russian crude flows to the East, particularly China and India.
Dismantling IRA
Last month, the Trump administration ordered federal agencies to “immediately pause the disbursement of funds” under the Inflation Reduction Act, former President Joe Biden’s landmark legislation.
The future of numerous major clean energy projects, which were counting on federal funding and tax breaks, is now unclear.
The IRA also incentivised US oil and gas companies to invest in technology promoted by the legislation.
ExxonMobil’s planned blue hydrogen plant in Baytown, Texas, is expected to reach a final investment decision (FID) this year. The UAE’s Adnoc took a 35 per cent stake in the project last year and plans to transfer that stake to its subsidiary Fertiglobe.
“We're obviously monitoring the geopolitical and regulatory environment right now,” Ahmed El Hoshy, chief executive of Fertiglobe, told The National in an interview last week. "For now, we see that things look like they're still fine in terms of the IRA and what's needed there. We'll be working with our partner ExxonMobil on the FID plans for the project over the next several months."
Occidental Petroleum, a major oil and gas company based in Houston, is lobbying the Trump administration to keep tax credits that support carbon capture and storage, as their first plant is scheduled to begin operations this year.
"President Trump knows the business case for this, I've had several conversations with him," said Vicki Hollub, the company’s chief executive.
LNG impact
Last month, Mr Trump issued an order for the US to resume processing export permit applications for new LNG projects, reversing a ban placed by the previous administration.
However, even as the policy shift aims to boost American LNG exports, escalating trade tension with China threaten to undermine demand.
China’s retaliatory tariffs on US LNG, imposed in response to a 10 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, along with the prospect of an all-out trade war between the two countries, will make Chinese companies cautious about signing new long-term contracts with American LNG projects, analysts say.
Even without the effects of a trade war, increasing the supply of the supercooled fuel to the market will still take years. It typically takes two to five years after the FID for a facility to send out its first commercial shipment.
Future US LNG faces financing uncertainties, ship construction delays and Henry Hub-linked pricing, which makes it less competitive than Qatari LNG, Ruchdi Maalouf, independent arbitrator and a former LNG executive, told The National.
“Increasing gas production can happen fairly quickly, but building a new liquefaction plant takes us beyond Donald Trump's term. There are so many unknowns that it is hard to speculate,” he said.
Norway-based consultancy Rystad Energy had earlier predicted that Mr Trump’s pro-energy agenda could help nearly double US LNG export capacity to 22.4 billion cubic per day (bcfd) in 2030, from 11.3 bcfd in 2023.
Opec policy
At the FII summit, Mr Trump thanked Saudi Arabia for hosting talks between Washington and Moscow last week, describing the kingdom as a “special place with special leaders.”
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has vowed to invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years.
The US President’s remarks followed his call this month for Opec+ to increase crude production, as the US tightened sanctions on Iranian and Russian exports. However, the group left its production policy unchanged at its meeting on February 3.
The Opec+ group, which includes Russia, has withheld 5.86 million bpd of supply from the market, including voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million bpd that will be gradually eased, starting in April.
“We expect sanctions to force Iranian production lower later this year while the potential impact on Russian supply remains uncertain,” Energy Aspects said in research note last week.
Despite US pressure to increase output, Opec+ is expected to maintain current production levels until at least April without “sustained clarity” on sanctions, the consultancy said.
Earlier this month, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian urged Opec members to unite and prevent the US from pressuring any of them.
The Birkin bag is made by Hermès.
It is named after actress and singer Jane Birkin
Noone from Hermès will go on record to say how much a new Birkin costs, how long one would have to wait to get one, and how many bags are actually made each year.
'Laal Kaptaan'
Director: Navdeep Singh
Stars: Saif Ali Khan, Manav Vij, Deepak Dobriyal, Zoya Hussain
Rating: 2/5
If you go...
Fly from Dubai or Abu Dhabi to Chiang Mai in Thailand, via Bangkok, before taking a five-hour bus ride across the Laos border to Huay Xai. The land border crossing at Huay Xai is a well-trodden route, meaning entry is swift, though travellers should be aware of visa requirements for both countries.
Flights from Dubai start at Dh4,000 return with Emirates, while Etihad flights from Abu Dhabi start at Dh2,000. Local buses can be booked in Chiang Mai from around Dh50
RESULT
Esperance de Tunis 1 Guadalajara 1
(Esperance won 6-5 on penalties)
Esperance: Belaili 38’
Guadalajara: Sandoval 5’
Stage result
1. Jasper Philipsen (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix 4:42:34
2. Sam Bennett (Irl) Bora-Hansgrohe
3. Elia Viviani (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers
4. Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) BikeExchange-Jayco
5. Emils Liepins (Lat) Trek-Segafredo
6. Arnaud Demare (Fra) Groupama-FDJ
7. Max Kanter (Ger) Movistar Team
8. Olav Kooij (Ned) Jumbo-Visma
9. Tom Devriendt (Bel) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux
10. Pascal Ackermann (Ger) UAE Team Emirate
All%20We%20Imagine%20as%20Light
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPayal%20Kapadia%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kani%20Kusruti%2C%20Divya%20Prabha%2C%20Chhaya%20Kadam%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
SPECS
Nissan 370z Nismo
Engine: 3.7-litre V6
Transmission: seven-speed automatic
Power: 363hp
Torque: 560Nm
Price: Dh184,500
HOW TO WATCH
Facebook: TheNationalNews
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Blonde
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAndrew%20Dominik%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAna%20de%20Armas%2C%20Adrien%20Brody%2C%20Bobby%20Cannavale%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Baftas 2020 winners
BEST FILM
- 1917 - Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Jayne-Ann Tenggren
- THE IRISHMAN - Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- JOKER - Bradley Cooper, Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh, Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho, Kwak Sin-ae
DIRECTOR
- 1917 - Sam Mendes
- THE IRISHMAN - Martin Scorsese
- JOKER - Todd Phillips
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
- 1917 - Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Krysty Wilson-Cairns
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin, Kate Byers, Linn Waite
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- ROCKETMAN - Dexter Fletcher, Adam Bohling, David Furnish, David Reid, Matthew Vaughn, Lee Hall
- SORRY WE MISSED YOU - Ken Loach, Rebecca O’Brien, Paul Laverty
- THE TWO POPES - Fernando Meirelles, Jonathan Eirich, Dan Lin, Tracey Seaward, Anthony McCarten
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
- THE FAREWELL - Lulu Wang, Daniele Melia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- PAIN AND GLORY - Pedro Almodóvar, Agustín Almodóvar
- PARASITE - Bong Joon-ho
- PORTRAIT OF A LADY ON FIRE - Céline Sciamma, Bénédicte Couvreur
LEADING ACTRESS
- JESSIE BUCKLEY - Wild Rose
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Marriage Story
- SAOIRSE RONAN - Little Women
- CHARLIZE THERON - Bombshell
- RENÉE ZELLWEGER - Judy
LEADING ACTOR
- LEONARDO DICAPRIO - Once Upon a Time… In Hollywood
- ADAM DRIVER - Marriage Story
- TARON EGERTON - Rocketman
- JOAQUIN PHOENIX - Joker
- JONATHAN PRYCE - The Two Popes
SUPPORTING ACTOR
- TOM HANKS - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
- ANTHONY HOPKINS - The Two Popes
- AL PACINO - The Irishman
- JOE PESCI - The Irishman
- BRAD PITT - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
- LAURA DERN - Marriage Story
- SCARLETT JOHANSSON - Jojo Rabbit
- FLORENCE PUGH - Little Women
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Bombshell
- MARGOT ROBBIE - Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
- THE IRISHMAN - Steven Zaillian
- JOJO RABBIT - Taika Waititi
- JOKER - Todd Phillips, Scott Silver
- LITTLE WOMEN - Greta Gerwig
- THE TWO POPES - Anthony McCarten
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
- BOOKSMART - Susanna Fogel, Emily Halpern, Sarah Haskins, Katie Silberman
- KNIVES OUT - Rian Johnson
- MARRIAGE STORY - Noah Baumbach
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Quentin Tarantino
- PARASITE - Han Jin Won, Bong Joon ho
DOCUMENTARY
- AMERICAN FACTORY - Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
- APOLLO 11 - Todd Douglas Miller
- DIEGO MARADONA - Asif Kapadia
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab, Edward Watts
- THE GREAT HACK - Karim Amer, Jehane Noujaime
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
- BAIT - Mark Jenkin (Writer/Director), Kate Byers, Linn Waite (Producers)
- FOR SAMA - Waad al-Kateab (Director/Producer), Edward Watts (Director)
- MAIDEN - Alex Holmes (Director)
- ONLY YOU - Harry Wootliff (Writer/Director)
- RETABLO - Álvaro Delgado-Aparicio (Writer/Director)
ANIMATED FILM
- FROZEN 2 - Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee, Peter Del Vecho
- KLAUS - Sergio Pablos, Jinko Gotoh
- A SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE: FARMAGEDDON - Will Becher, Richard Phelan, Paul Kewley
- TOY STORY 4 - Josh Cooley, Mark Nielsen
CASTING
- JOKER - Shayna Markowitz
- MARRIAGE STORY - Douglas Aibel, Francine Maisler
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Victoria Thomas
- THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD - Sarah Crowe
- THE TWO POPES - Nina Gold
EE RISING STAR AWARD (voted for by the public)
- AWKWAFINA
- JACK LOWDEN
- KAITLYN DEVER
- KELVIN HARRISON JR.
- MICHEAL WARD
CINEMATOGRAPHY
- 1917 - Roger Deakins
- THE IRISHMAN - Rodrigo Prieto
- JOKER - Lawrence Sher
- LE MANS ’66 - Phedon Papamichael
- THE LIGHTHOUSE - Jarin Blaschke
EDITING
- THE IRISHMAN - Thelma Schoonmaker
- JOJO RABBIT - Tom Eagles
- JOKER - Jeff Groth
- LE MANS ’66 - Andrew Buckland, Michael McCusker
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Fred Raskin
COSTUME DESIGN
- THE IRISHMAN - Christopher Peterson, Sandy Powell
- JOJO RABBIT - Mayes C. Rubeo
- JUDY - Jany Temime
- LITTLE WOMEN - Jacqueline Durran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Arianne Phillips
PRODUCTION DESIGN
- 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
- THE IRISHMAN - Bob Shaw, Regina Graves
- JOJO RABBIT - Ra Vincent, Nora Sopková
- JOKER - Mark Friedberg, Kris Moran
- ONCE UPON A TIME… IN HOLLYWOOD - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh
SOUND
- 1917 - Scott Millan, Oliver Tarney, Rachael Tate, Mark Taylor, Stuart Wilson
- JOKER - Tod Maitland, Alan Robert Murray, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic
- LE MANS ’66 - David Giammarco, Paul Massey, Steven A. Morrow, Donald Sylvester
- ROCKETMAN - Matthew Collinge, John Hayes, Mike Prestwood Smith, Danny Sheehan
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Stuart Wilson, Matthew Wood
ORIGINAL SCORE
- 1917 - Thomas Newman
- JOJO RABBIT - Michael Giacchino
- JOKER - Hildur Guđnadóttir
- LITTLE WOMEN - Alexandre Desplat
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - John Williams
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
- 1917 - Greg Butler, Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy
- AVENGERS: ENDGAME - Dan Deleeuw, Dan Sudick
- THE IRISHMAN - Leandro Estebecorena, Stephane Grabli, Pablo Helman
- THE LION KING - Andrew R. Jones, Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez
- STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER - Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan, Dominic Tuohy
MAKE UP & HAIR
- 1917 - Naomi Donne
- BOMBSHELL - Vivian Baker, Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan
- JOKER - Kay Georgiou, Nicki Ledermann
- JUDY - Jeremy Woodhead
- ROCKETMAN - Lizzie Yianni Georgiou
BRITISH SHORT FILM
- AZAAR - Myriam Raja, Nathanael Baring
- GOLDFISH - Hector Dockrill, Harri Kamalanathan, Benedict Turnbull, Laura Dockrill
- KAMALI - Sasha Rainbow, Rosalind Croad
- LEARNING TO SKATEBOARD IN A WARZONE (IF YOU’RE A GIRL) - Carol Dysinger, Elena Andreicheva
- THE TRAP - Lena Headey, Anthony Fitzgerald
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
- GRANDAD WAS A ROMANTIC - Maryam Mohajer
- IN HER BOOTS - Kathrin Steinbacher
- THE MAGIC BOAT - Naaman Azh
'Panga'
Directed by Ashwiny Iyer Tiwari
Starring Kangana Ranaut, Richa Chadha, Jassie Gill, Yagya Bhasin, Neena Gupta
Rating: 3.5/5
Meydan racecard:
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 (PA) Group 1 | US$75,000 (Dirt) | 2,200 metres
7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas (TB) Listed | $250,000 (D) | 1,600m
7.40pm: Meydan Classic Trial (TB) Conditions | $100,000 (Turf) | 1,400m
8.15pm: Al Shindagha Sprint (TB) Group 3 | $200,000 (D) | 1,200m
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (D) | 1,600m
9.25pm: Handicap (TB) | $175,000 (T) | 2,000m
10pm: Handicap (TB) | $135,000 (T) | 1,600m
'THE WORST THING YOU CAN EAT'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
If you go
The Flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Johannesburg from Dubai and Abu Dhabi respectively. Economy return tickets cost from Dh2,650, including taxes.
The trip
Worldwide Motorhoming Holidays (worldwidemotorhomingholidays.co.uk) operates fly-drive motorhome holidays in eight destinations, including South Africa. Its 14-day Kruger and the Battlefields itinerary starts from Dh17,500, including campgrounds, excursions, unit hire and flights. Bobo Campers has a range of RVs for hire, including the 4-berth Discoverer 4 from Dh600 per day.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Sav%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Purvi%20Munot%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20FinTech%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24750%2C000%20as%20of%20March%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Angel%20investors%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Results
5pm: Wadi Nagab – Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 (Turf) 1,200m; Winner: Al Falaq, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ahmed Al Shemaili (trainer)
5.30pm: Wadi Sidr – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 1,200m; Winner: AF Majalis, Tadhg O’Shea, Ernst Oertel
6pm: Wathba Stallions Cup – Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: AF Fakhama, Fernando Jara, Mohamed Daggash
6.30pm: Wadi Shees – Handicap (PA) Dh80,000 (T) 2,200m; Winner: Mutaqadim, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7pm: Arabian Triple Crown Round-1 – Listed (PA) Dh230,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Bahar Muscat, Antonio Fresu, Ibrahim Al Hadhrami
7.30pm: Wadi Tayyibah – Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 (T) 1,600m; Winner: Poster Paint, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar
