The global economy will “remain resilient” over the coming years but “risks and uncertainties are high”, according to the annual outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
The OECD, whose 38 members included the world's largest economies, forecasted growth of 3.2 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent next year, slightly higher than the predictions made in September. Meanwhile, inflation in the OECD countries is expected to ease further, from 5.4 per cent this year to 3.8 per cent next year and 3 per cent in 2026. Headline inflation has already returned to the targets set by the central bank targets in about half of advanced economies and close to 60 per cent of emerging market economies, the OECD said.
“The global economy has proved resilient. Inflation has declined further towards central bank targets, while growth has remained stable,” OECD secretary general Mathias Cormann said. “Significant challenges remain. Geopolitical tensions pose short-term risks, public debt ratios are high and medium-term growth prospects are too weak. Policy action needs to safeguard macroeconomic stability – through monetary policy easing that is carefully calibrated to ensure inflationary pressures are durably contained and through fiscal policy that rebuilds fiscal space to preserve room to meet future spending pressures.”
Although the Paris-based organisation's 267-page report did not mention president-elect Donald Trump by name, it alluded to Mr Trump's recent threats to impose tariffs of one sort or another on almost all goods entering the US by cautioning that “greater trade protectionism, particularly from the largest economies” constitutes a “downside risk”.
“Robust overall performance masks significant differences across regions and countries and is surrounded by important downside risks and uncertainties,” said OECD chief economist Alvaro Pereira. “There are increasing risks related to rising trade tensions and protectionism, a possible escalation of geopolitical conflicts, and challenging fiscal policies in some countries.”
UK boost, but more tax raises
As far as the UK is concerned, the OECD predicted inflation and growth would be slightly higher for the British economy than was previously forecast, because of a spending boost in Chancellor Rachel Reeves's budget in October. Ms Reeves set out plans for almost £70 billion a year of extra public spending, funded through tax rises and increased borrowing. That partly prompted the OECD to increase its UK inflation forecast for 2025 from 2.4 per cent to 2.7 per cent. As such, the OECD forecast that interest rates would fall to 3.5 per cent by the start of 2026, from their current 4.75 per cent. In turn, the prediction for the UK economy was an expansion of 1.7 per cent next year (up from the 1.2 per cent forecast in September), but a slowing to 1.3 per cent in 2026, as the front-loaded government spending runs its course.
“Growth is our number one priority, and the OECD upgrade will mean the UK is the fastest growing European economy in the G7 over the next three years,” Ms Reeves said in response to the OECD report. “That is only the start. Growth only matters if it's matched by more money in people's pockets.”
However, the OECD pointed out that Ms Reeves would still need to raise taxes in one shape or another. “Rebuilding fiscal buffers and continuing to mobilise additional revenue, including by closing loopholes and reducing distortions in the tax system, is necessary to ensure fiscal sustainability,” the report said. The OECD's tax-raising prediction for the UK comes just a week after Mr Reeves said she was “not coming back with more borrowing or more taxes”.
German woes
Meanwhile, the OECD trimmed its 2025 economic forecasts for Germany, due to political uncertainty and tight fiscal policy, while predicting a degree of stagnation for this year. The world's third-largest economy is expected to grow by 0.7 per cent in 2025, down from a previously forecast 1.1 per cent, the OECD said. “In 2025, Germany will bring up the rear among OECD countries,” the OECD's Isabell Koske said.
Germany's economy, the world's third largest, is having to cope with the collapse of the ruling coalition last month and the possibility of a tit-for-tat trade war with the US once Mr Trump takes up residence in the White House. Germany's economically important automotive sector has been hit by weak global demand and significant competition from China, and recovery in exports is expected to be slow. Meanwhile, France saw a 0.3 percentage point cut to its 2025 growth forecast to 0.9 per cent as the OECD released its report on the same day Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government faced a no-confidence vote after a stand-off over its plans for public finances.
The OECD was more upbeat about the prospects for the world's largest economy, the US, raising its growth forecast for 2024 from 2.6 per cent to 2.8 per cent, and for 2025 from 1.6 per cent to 2.4 per cent. Meanwhile, the OECD sees the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates to 3.25-3.5 per cent by the first quarter of 2026.
The OECD said China's economy is now expected to expand by 4.7 per cent in 2025, a 0.2 per cent increase, while India's growth forecast was raised 0.1 percentage points to 6.9 per cent.
Infiniti QX80 specs
Engine: twin-turbocharged 3.5-liter V6
Power: 450hp
Torque: 700Nm
Price: From Dh450,000, Autograph model from Dh510,000
Available: Now
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Basquiat in Abu Dhabi
One of Basquiat’s paintings, the vibrant Cabra (1981–82), now hangs in Louvre Abu Dhabi temporarily, on loan from the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
The latter museum is not open physically, but has assembled a collection and puts together a series of events called Talking Art, such as this discussion, moderated by writer Chaedria LaBouvier.
It's something of a Basquiat season in Abu Dhabi at the moment. Last week, The Radiant Child, a documentary on Basquiat was shown at Manarat Al Saadiyat, and tonight (April 18) the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi is throwing the re-creation of a party tonight, of the legendary Canal Zone party thrown in 1979, which epitomised the collaborative scene of the time. It was at Canal Zone that Basquiat met prominent members of the art world and moved from unknown graffiti artist into someone in the spotlight.
“We’ve invited local resident arists, we’ll have spray cans at the ready,” says curator Maisa Al Qassemi of the Guggenheim Abu Dhabi.
Guggenheim Abu Dhabi's Canal Zone Remix is at Manarat Al Saadiyat, Thursday April 18, from 8pm. Free entry to all. Basquiat's Cabra is on view at Louvre Abu Dhabi until October
The specs
Engine: 2.4-litre 4-cylinder
Transmission: CVT auto
Power: 181bhp
Torque: 244Nm
Price: Dh122,900
South Africa squad
: Faf du Plessis (captain), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wkt), Theunis de Bruyn, AB de Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen (wkt), Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Morne Morkel, Chris Morris, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Duanne Olivier, Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada.
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters
The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.
Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.
A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.
The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.
The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.
Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.
Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment
But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.
25%20Days%20to%20Aden
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Michael%20Knights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2026%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Building boom turning to bust as Turkey's economy slows
Deep in a provincial region of northwestern Turkey, it looks like a mirage - hundreds of luxury houses built in neat rows, their pointed towers somewhere between French chateau and Disney castle.
Meant to provide luxurious accommodations for foreign buyers, the houses are however standing empty in what is anything but a fairytale for their investors.
The ambitious development has been hit by regional turmoil as well as the slump in the Turkish construction industry - a key sector - as the country's economy heads towards what could be a hard landing in an intensifying downturn.
After a long period of solid growth, Turkey's economy contracted 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, and many economists expect it will enter into recession this year.
The country has been hit by high inflation and a currency crisis in August. The lira lost 28 per cent of its value against the dollar in 2018 and markets are still unconvinced by the readiness of the government under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to tackle underlying economic issues.
The villas close to the town centre of Mudurnu in the Bolu region are intended to resemble European architecture and are part of the Sarot Group's Burj Al Babas project.
But the development of 732 villas and a shopping centre - which began in 2014 - is now in limbo as Sarot Group has sought bankruptcy protection.
It is one of hundreds of Turkish companies that have done so as they seek cover from creditors and to restructure their debts.
EA Sports FC 26
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3/5
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
MATCH INFO
Manchester City 4 (Gundogan 8' (P), Bernardo Silva 19', Jesus 72', 75')
Fulham 0
Red cards: Tim Ream (Fulham)
Man of the Match: Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
Profile
Company: Justmop.com
Date started: December 2015
Founders: Kerem Kuyucu and Cagatay Ozcan
Sector: Technology and home services
Based: Jumeirah Lake Towers, Dubai
Size: 55 employees and 100,000 cleaning requests a month
Funding: The company’s investors include Collective Spark, Faith Capital Holding, Oak Capital, VentureFriends, and 500 Startups.
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood
Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.
Poacher
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants
Company Profile
Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million
Abu Dhabi GP Saturday schedule
12.30pm GP3 race (18 laps)
2pm Formula One final practice
5pm Formula One qualifying
6.40pm Formula 2 race (31 laps)
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
FIXTURES
All games 6pm UAE on Sunday:
Arsenal v Watford
Burnley v Brighton
Chelsea v Wolves
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Everton v Bournemouth
Leicester v Man United
Man City v Norwich
Newcastle v Liverpool
Southampton v Sheffield United
West Ham v Aston Villa
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
Fixtures
Wednesday
4.15pm: Japan v Spain (Group A)
5.30pm: UAE v Italy (Group A)
6.45pm: Russia v Mexico (Group B)
8pm: Iran v Egypt (Group B)
Afro%20salons
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More from Neighbourhood Watch
SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
Ibrahim's play list
Completed an electrical diploma at the Adnoc Technical Institute
Works as a public relations officer with Adnoc
Apart from the piano, he plays the accordion, oud and guitar
His favourite composer is Johann Sebastian Bach
Also enjoys listening to Mozart
Likes all genres of music including Arabic music and jazz
Enjoys rock groups Scorpions and Metallica
Other musicians he likes are Syrian-American pianist Malek Jandali and Lebanese oud player Rabih Abou Khalil
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Aquaman%20and%20the%20Lost%20Kingdom
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20James%20Wan%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jason%20Mamoa%2C%20Patrick%20Wilson%2C%20Amber%20Heard%2C%20Yahya%20Abdul-Mateen%20II%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Essentials
The flights: You can fly from the UAE to Iceland with one stop in Europe with a variety of airlines. Return flights with Emirates from Dubai to Stockholm, then Icelandair to Reykjavik, cost from Dh4,153 return. The whole trip takes 11 hours. British Airways flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Reykjavik, via London, with return flights taking 12 hours and costing from Dh2,490 return, including taxes.
The activities: A half-day Silfra snorkelling trip costs 14,990 Icelandic kronur (Dh544) with Dive.is. Inside the Volcano also takes half a day and costs 42,000 kronur (Dh1,524). The Jokulsarlon small-boat cruise lasts about an hour and costs 9,800 kronur (Dh356). Into the Glacier costs 19,500 kronur (Dh708). It lasts three to four hours.
The tours: It’s often better to book a tailor-made trip through a specialist operator. UK-based Discover the World offers seven nights, self-driving, across the island from £892 (Dh4,505) per person. This includes three nights’ accommodation at Hotel Husafell near Into the Glacier, two nights at Hotel Ranga and two nights at the Icelandair Hotel Klaustur. It includes car rental, plus an iPad with itinerary and tourist information pre-loaded onto it, while activities can be booked as optional extras. More information inspiredbyiceland.com
Crops that could be introduced to the UAE
1: Quinoa
2. Bathua
3. Amaranth
4. Pearl and finger millet
5. Sorghum
Schedule:
Pakistan v Sri Lanka:
28 Sep-2 Oct, 1st Test, Abu Dhabi
6-10 Oct, 2nd Test (day-night), Dubai
13 Oct, 1st ODI, Dubai
16 Oct, 2nd ODI, Abu Dhabi
18 Oct, 3rd ODI, Abu Dhabi
20 Oct, 4th ODI, Sharjah
23 Oct, 5th ODI, Sharjah
26 Oct, 1st T20I, Abu Dhabi
27 Oct, 2nd T20I, Abu Dhabi
29 Oct, 3rd T20I, Lahore
UAE%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3E%0DJemma%20Eley%2C%20Maria%20Michailidou%2C%20Molly%20Fuller%2C%20Chloe%20Andrews%20(of%20Dubai%20College)%2C%20Eliza%20Petricola%2C%20Holly%20Guerin%2C%20Yasmin%20Craig%2C%20Caitlin%20Gowdy%20(Dubai%20English%20Speaking%20College)%2C%20Claire%20Janssen%2C%20Cristiana%20Morall%20(Jumeirah%20English%20Speaking%20School)%2C%20Tessa%20Mies%20(Jebel%20Ali%20School)%2C%20Mila%20Morgan%20(Cranleigh%20Abu%20Dhabi).%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
- 2018: Formal work begins
- November 2021: First 17 volumes launched
- November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
- October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
- November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
A State of Passion
Directors: Carol Mansour and Muna Khalidi
Stars: Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah
Rating: 4/5
Company Profile:
Name: The Protein Bakeshop
Date of start: 2013
Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani
Based: Dubai
Size, number of employees: 12
Funding/investors: $400,000 (2018)
