Global commodity prices are projected to fall to a five-year low next year, owing to an “oil glut” that could limit the pressure on crude prices caused by a wider conflict in the Middle East, the World Bank said on Tuesday.
The World Bank expects the global oil supply to exceed demand by an average of 1.2 million barrels per day next year, it said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Partly accounting for the large oil supply is a “major shift” in China, where the World Bank said demand for the commodity has “essentially flatlined” since last year due to lower industrial production and a shift to electric vehicles.
In addition, several countries that are not part of the Opec or its allies Opec+ are expected to ramp up oil production, the World Bank said.
The price of Brent crude oil is expected to average $80 per barrel this year, before falling to $73 and $72 per barrel in 2025 and 2026, respectively.
Tuesday's report comes as tensions continue to grow in the region, and continuing developments stemming from the Gaza war have led to volatility in prices. The price of Brent crude dropped sharply on Monday after Israel avoided targeting oil infrastructure during its retaliatory strikes on Iran at the weekend.
Iran said the three waves of Israeli attacks, which targeted military infrastructure, caused limited damage.
If the conflict in the region were to escalate, the World Bank anticipates a relatively short-term spike. Assuming wider escalation would reduce the global oil supply by 2 per cent, the Washington-based multilateral development bank forecasts Brent prices would peak at $92 per barrel before moderating to $84 per barrel next year.
The World Bank said this price per barrel accounts for 15 per cent above its baseline forecast, but 5 per cent above the average price for Brent crude in 2024.
“The good news is that the global economy appears to be in much better shape than before to cope with a significant oil shock,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group.
The Opec+ members in September extended their voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through November, planning to phase out the cuts from December through November 2025.
Opec earlier this month lowered its outlook for oil demand this year from 2.03 million barrels per day to 1.93 million bpd, with weak Chinese demand accounting for the bulk of the downward revision. The group noted its projections show growth is still above the average of 1.4 million barrels per day recorded before the pandemic.
The World Bank said Opec's potential unwinding of its voluntary production cuts remains a key downside risk, as does a slowdown in global demand and diversifying oil production.
Prices set to fall
Overall, commodity prices are forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2025 and 2 per cent in 2026 after a 3 per cent decrease this year. Food prices are projected to fall 9 per cent this year and 4 per cent in 2025, while energy prices are forecast to fall by 6 per cent in 2025 and 2 per cent in 2026.
The World Bank said a decline in food and energy costs should help central banks control inflation, although conflicts could exert upward pressure on prices.
The International Monetary Fund last week reported in its World Economic Outlook that global headline inflation is expected to fall to 3.5 per cent next year, well below its 9.4 per cent peak in 2022.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
WandaVision
Starring: Elizabeth Olsen, Paul Bettany
Directed by: Matt Shakman
Rating: Four stars
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 261hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 405Nm at 1,750-3,500rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 6.9L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh117,059
Cryopreservation: A timeline
- Keyhole surgery under general anaesthetic
- Ovarian tissue surgically removed
- Tissue processed in a high-tech facility
- Tissue re-implanted at a time of the patient’s choosing
- Full hormone production regained within 4-6 months
Washmen Profile
Date Started: May 2015
Founders: Rami Shaar and Jad Halaoui
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: Laundry
Employees: 170
Funding: about $8m
Funders: Addventure, B&Y Partners, Clara Ventures, Cedar Mundi Partners, Henkel Ventures
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre flat-six
Torque: 450Nm at 6,100rpm
Transmission: 7-speed PDK auto or 6-speed manual
Fuel economy, combined: 13.8L/100km
On sale: Available to order now
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Joker: Folie a Deux
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Brendan Gleeson
Director: Todd Phillips
Rating: 2/5
The candidates
Dr Ayham Ammora, scientist and business executive
Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
The Baghdad Clock
Shahad Al Rawi, Oneworld
More on Quran memorisation:
Five%20calorie-packed%20Ramadan%20drinks
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERooh%20Afza%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20contains%20414%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETang%20orange%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECarob%20beverage%20mix%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%20about%20300%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQamar%20Al%20Din%20apricot%20drink%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20saving%20contains%2061%20calories%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EVimto%20fruit%20squash%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E100ml%20serving%20contains%2030%20calories%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Normcore explained
Something of a fashion anomaly, normcore is essentially a celebration of the unremarkable. The term was first popularised by an article in New York magazine in 2014 and has been dubbed “ugly”, “bland’ and "anti-style" by fashion writers. It’s hallmarks are comfort, a lack of pretentiousness and neutrality – it is a trend for those who would rather not stand out from the crowd. For the most part, the style is unisex, favouring loose silhouettes, thrift-shop threads, baseball caps and boyish trainers. It is important to note that normcore is not synonymous with cheapness or low quality; there are high-fashion brands, including Parisian label Vetements, that specialise in this style. Embraced by fashion-forward street-style stars around the globe, it’s uptake in the UAE has been relatively slow.
How to get there
Emirates (www.emirates.com) flies directly to Hanoi, Vietnam, with fares starting from around Dh2,725 return, while Etihad (www.etihad.com) fares cost about Dh2,213 return with a stop. Chuong is 25 kilometres south of Hanoi.
Winners
Best Men's Player of the Year: Kylian Mbappe (PSG)
Maradona Award for Best Goal Scorer of the Year: Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich)
TikTok Fans’ Player of the Year: Robert Lewandowski
Top Goal Scorer of All Time: Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Best Women's Player of the Year: Alexia Putellas (Barcelona)
Best Men's Club of the Year: Chelsea
Best Women's Club of the Year: Barcelona
Best Defender of the Year: Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus/Italy)
Best Goalkeeper of the Year: Gianluigi Donnarumma (PSG/Italy)
Best Coach of the Year: Roberto Mancini (Italy)
Best National Team of the Year: Italy
Best Agent of the Year: Federico Pastorello
Best Sporting Director of the Year: Txiki Begiristain (Manchester City)
Player Career Award: Ronaldinho
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
Feeding the thousands for iftar
Six industrial scale vats of 500litres each are used to cook the kanji or broth
Each vat contains kanji or porridge to feed 1,000 people
The rice porridge is poured into a 500ml plastic box
350 plastic tubs are placed in one container trolley
Each aluminium container trolley weighing 300kg is unloaded by a small crane fitted on a truck
