Pipelines at the Total oil refinery in Leuna, Germany. European gas prices have fallen since last year. Getty Images
Pipelines at the Total oil refinery in Leuna, Germany. European gas prices have fallen since last year. Getty Images
Pipelines at the Total oil refinery in Leuna, Germany. European gas prices have fallen since last year. Getty Images
Pipelines at the Total oil refinery in Leuna, Germany. European gas prices have fallen since last year. Getty Images


Azerbaijan's gas importance rises as EU and Turkey grow more dependent


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  • Arabic

August 12, 2024

Azerbaijan’s Absheron Peninsula, poking into the Caspian Sea, is the site of one of the world’s oldest oil booms, with petroleum dug out by hand even before drilling began. The capital Baku is preparing for a new energy future, hosting the Cop29 climate conference in November. But for now, it is neither oil nor renewables that are crucial – but Azerbaijan’s gas, with Adnoc and Masdar now influential partners.

Four countries are important exporters of gas by pipeline to Europe: Russia, Iran, Algeria and Azerbaijan. Russia has largely written itself out of the market since late 2021, but a trickle of gas still goes through Ukraine. The contract expires at the end of this year and is unlikely to be renewed.

Ukrainian forces have caught Moscow off guard by advancing into Russia since Tuesday, including taking control of the Sudzha gas transit point. Although Ukraine could have cut off the gas flows if it wished, there is the risk of physical damage to the infrastructure or Russian retaliation.

Russia remains an important supplier to Turkey through undersea pipelines. From Turkey. Russian gas also enters the continental European market.

Iran and Algeria, whose exports are constrained by a mix of underinvestment in new production, rising domestic consumption, and political disputes.

In Azerbaijan, pipelines run from its offshore fields through Georgia to Erzurum in eastern Turkey. From there, some gas goes into the Turkish market, while another portion travels through the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (Tanap), which opened in 2018, and goes to western Turkey, where it connects to the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (Tap), running across Greece and Albania to Italy.

Azerbaijan’s importance to Turkey has grown recently, as it sends about 1 billion cubic metres monthly, out of total monthly Turkish imports that range from 3 billion cubic metres in summer to 6 billion cubic metres in winter.

EU gas imports have dropped dramatically since the start of the war in Ukraine. The importance of Azerbaijan has proportionately risen: it meets about 4 per cent of the bloc’s imports currently, only a bit less than the remaining Russian gas via Ukraine.

Since 2022, European gas prices have fallen and have been quite moderate and stable since mid-2023. Still, they remain well above pre-crisis levels, hovering at about $11 per million British thermal units, up from an average of about $7 in 2018-19.

Recently, they have reached their highest level since 1 December, unusual for the summer period. This reflects security concerns, maintenance on some systems in Norway, but also competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies with Asia, which has cranked up air-conditioning to deal with heatwaves. Further hurricanes blowing through the US Gulf of Mexico could interrupt LNG supplies, while the effective closure of the Red Sea by Houthi attacks hampers LNG deliveries from the Middle East to Europe.

The EU has plans to keep using the transit through Ukraine, as a sop to Kremlin-curious Hungary and Slovakia, which still rely on that route. One idea is to secure a deal with Azerbaijan, sending its gas through Russia, or at least to swap some quantity of Azeri gas for Russian. That has the attraction for the EU and Ukraine to eliminate payments to Moscow, although it would still garner transit fees.

This deal could fall foul of the fighting around Sudzha. Ukraine’s state gas company says that Azerbaijan can only provide about 2 billion cubic metres extra compared to the 12 billion cubic metres of Russian gas which went through Ukraine last year.

This underlines the challenge for the EU in relying more on Baku. Azerbaijan’s gas production is limited and its own consumption has been rising fairly rapidly, at a rate of about 5 per cent annually over the last decade.

That’s where the Abu Dhabi companies come in. The Absheron field is a large offshore gas accumulation about 100km south-east of the eponymous peninsula, which began producing last July. The first phase yields 1.5 billion cubic metres per year for the domestic market, and the second phase should grow output to 5.5 billion cubic metres. Last August, Adnoc acquired a 30 per cent stake from the existing partners, Azeri state company Socar and France’s TotalEnergies.

This was one of the Abu Dhabi corporation’s first overseas gas deals and, alongside a deal with BP in Egypt, gave it a role in gas supply to Europe. BP and Socar have other potential gas projects that might offer scope for co-operation.

Absheron lies just to the east of BP-operated Shah Deniz, Azerbaijan’s largest gasfield, and the main source of its current exports. In June, the Hungarian state electricity company, MVM, aiming to secure its gas supplies, bought 5 per cent in Shah Deniz from an Azeri government-Socar joint venture.

One other alternative to boost supplies from Azerbaijan is to transit gas from Turkmenistan, its eastern neighbour across the Caspian, which has the world’s fourth-largest reserves, but few export outlets. Central Asian energy ministers held their first-ever joint meeting in Kazakhstan on Tuesday, though only the deputy minister from Azerbaijan and the Turkmen ambassador to Kazakhstan represented their countries.

In 2021, the two nations agreed to develop the shared Dostluk field in the Caspian, possibly permitting a cross-border gas pipeline. In June, Turkey and Azerbaijan agreed to work to allow gas deliveries from Turkmenistan.

Masdar has also been working with Azerbaijan to develop wind, solar and hydrogen projects. In October, it finished a 230-megawatt solar farm and started building 1 gigawatt of solar and wind projects in June. These should replace some domestic gas consumption.

In June, Maryam Al Mazrouei, Masdar’s head of development and investment for the region, said the company was studying the use of gas pipelines to deliver green hydrogen to Europe. That prospect is still a few years away.

Alongside this, Azerbaijan needs more export capacity, since Tanap and Tap are nearly full. Europe will have to make long-term commitments to buy gas if it wants them to be expanded, but it has been reluctant, because of net-zero carbon goals. The promise of future hydrogen supplies might salve consciences in Brussels. Cop29 will be a good venue to attempt to square the circle of climate and energy security.

Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis

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Rating: 2 out of 5 stars

TOUCH RULES

Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.

Teams can make as many substitutions as they want during the 40 minute matches.

Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.

A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.

After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.

At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.

A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.

MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW

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Director: Jesse Armstrong

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1. Fasting

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3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

The five pillars of Islam
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Part three: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative 

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

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Rating: 4/5

 

Directed by: Joseph Kosinski

 

Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris

 
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi

Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.

Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting 

2. Prayer 

3. Hajj 

4. Shahada 

5. Zakat 

The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat 

What is blockchain?

Blockchain is a form of distributed ledger technology, a digital system in which data is recorded across multiple places at the same time. Unlike traditional databases, DLTs have no central administrator or centralised data storage. They are transparent because the data is visible and, because they are automatically replicated and impossible to be tampered with, they are secure.

The main difference between blockchain and other forms of DLT is the way data is stored as ‘blocks’ – new transactions are added to the existing ‘chain’ of past transactions, hence the name ‘blockchain’. It is impossible to delete or modify information on the chain due to the replication of blocks across various locations.

Blockchain is mostly associated with cryptocurrency Bitcoin. Due to the inability to tamper with transactions, advocates say this makes the currency more secure and safer than traditional systems. It is maintained by a network of people referred to as ‘miners’, who receive rewards for solving complex mathematical equations that enable transactions to go through.

However, one of the major problems that has come to light has been the presence of illicit material buried in the Bitcoin blockchain, linking it to the dark web.

Other blockchain platforms can offer things like smart contracts, which are automatically implemented when specific conditions from all interested parties are reached, cutting the time involved and the risk of mistakes. Another use could be storing medical records, as patients can be confident their information cannot be changed. The technology can also be used in supply chains, voting and has the potential to used for storing property records.

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Buyers should try to pay as much in cash as possible for a property, limiting the mortgage value to as little as they can afford. This means they not only pay less in interest but their monthly costs are also reduced. Ideally, the monthly mortgage payment should not exceed 20 per cent of the purchaser’s total household income, says Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching.

“If it’s a rental property, plan for the property to have periods when it does not have a tenant. Ensure you have enough cash set aside to pay the mortgage and other costs during these periods, ideally at least six months,” she says. 

Also, shop around for the best mortgage interest rate. Understand the terms and conditions, especially what happens after any introductory periods, Ms Glynn adds.

Using a good mortgage broker is worth the investment to obtain the best rate available for a buyer’s needs and circumstances. A good mortgage broker will help the buyer understand the terms and conditions of the mortgage and make the purchasing process efficient and easier. 

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Last 10 NBA champions

2017: Golden State bt Cleveland 4-1
2016: Cleveland bt Golden State 4-3
2015: Golden State bt Cleveland 4-2
2014: San Antonio bt Miami 4-1
2013: Miami bt San Antonio 4-3
2012: Miami bt Oklahoma City 4-1
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2010: Los Angeles Lakers bt Boston 4-3
2009: Los Angeles Lakers bt Orlando 4-1
2008: Boston bt Los Angeles Lakers 4-2

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The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on

Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins

Read part one: how cars came to the UAE

 

Company profile

Name: Thndr

Started: October 2020

Founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr

Based: Cairo, Egypt

Sector: FinTech

Initial investment: pre-seed of $800,000

Funding stage: series A; $20 million

Investors: Tiger Global, Beco Capital, Prosus Ventures, Y Combinator, Global Ventures, Abdul Latif Jameel, Endure Capital, 4DX Ventures, Plus VC,  Rabacap and MSA Capital

BORDERLANDS

Starring: Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jamie Lee Curtis

Director: Eli Roth

Rating: 0/5

The Bio

Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”

Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”

Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”

Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”

Hili 2: Unesco World Heritage site

The site is part of the Hili archaeological park in Al Ain. Excavations there have proved the existence of the earliest known agricultural communities in modern-day UAE. Some date to the Bronze Age but Hili 2 is an Iron Age site. The Iron Age witnessed the development of the falaj, a network of channels that funnelled water from natural springs in the area. Wells allowed settlements to be established, but falaj meant they could grow and thrive. Unesco, the UN's cultural body, awarded Al Ain's sites - including Hili 2 - world heritage status in 2011. Now the most recent dig at the site has revealed even more about the skilled people that lived and worked there.

RACECARD

6pm Emaar Dubai Sprint – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Turf) 1,200m

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7.10pm Al Khail Trophy – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 2,810m

7.45pm UAE 1000 Guineas – Listed (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,600m

8.20pm Zabeel Turf – Listed (TB) $100,000 (T) 2,000m

8.55pm Downtown Dubai Cup – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 1,400m

9.30pm Zabeel Mile – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,600m

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Price, base / as tested Dh222,500 / Dh296,870

Engine 2.0L, flat four-cylinder

Transmission Seven-speed PDK

Power 300hp @ 6,500rpm

Torque 380hp @ 1,950rpm

Fuel economy, combined 6.9L / 100km

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The specs: 2019 Audi A7 Sportback

Price, base: Dh315,000

Engine: 3.0-litre V6

Transmission: Seven-speed automatic

Power: 335hp @ 5,000rpm

Torque: 500Nm @ 1,370rpm

Fuel economy 5.9L / 100km

The years Ramadan fell in May

1987

1954

1921

1888

Dust and sand storms compared

Sand storm

  • Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
  • Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
  • Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
  • Travel distance: Limited 
  • Source: Open desert areas with strong winds

Dust storm

  • Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
  • Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
  • Duration: Can linger for days
  • Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
  • Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Updated: November 21, 2024, 12:26 PM`