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Embolden the market, take advantage of cyclical swings and launch bold structural reforms: that is the advice to the UK's opposition leader, Keir Starmer, who has said the British economy could grow by 2.5 per cent under a Labour government.
“Under the last Labour government, we grew by about two per cent,” Mr Starmer said in an ITV interview and, when pressed on whether he was seeking to achieve growth of 2.5 per cent, replied: “Certainly, yes.”
Despite placing economic growth at the centre of Labour's campaign, Mr Starmer and his team have steered clear of making economic growth predictions. They have promised sweeping reforms to the planning system that will boost housing and infrastructure, as well as state-backed investment in clean energy jobs.
'Laudable' but unrealistic
Economic forecasting over the five-year life of a parliament contains a high percentage of guess work. Since mid-2019, there has been the Covid pandemic, both Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the Israel-Gaza war, as well as rapid increases in inflation and interest rates.
Nevertheless Mr Starmer's annual target would represent quite a step up. In its latest assessment, the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) sees the British economy growing at 0.8 per cent this year, thanks to an easing of interest rates and a very modest rise in real household income.
“GDP growth picks up to around 2 per cent in the middle of the decade as slack in the economy is taken up, before falling back towards its assumed trend rate of around 1.66 per cent by 2028,” the OBR said.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts 0.5 per cent growth this year and 1.5 per cent growth next year.
EY's number crunchers have been more optimistic, pencilling in growth of 2 per cent in 2025.
Bloomberg UK economists Dan Hanson and Ana Andrade were disbelieving of Mr Starmer's prediction, given the hill the economy would have to climb.
“A laudable goal? Absolutely. Realistic? Unfortunately not,” they said in a research note.
“The next administration needs to be prepared for a situation where the economy continues to muddle along.”
Others are willing to give Mr Starmer a little more latitude in his predictions, should Labour win the general election next week.
“If the [Labour] party is emboldened by initial market reaction and borrows more to invest, the 2.5 per cent growth looks more achievable,” Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, told The National.
“However, the economy will still be highly sensitive to global growth prospects and given the fractious nature of geopolitics there is the potential for fresh upset ahead.”
For Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, Mr Starmer's forecast might be slightly optimistic, but not surprising given that at this stage of the game he is hardly going to “want to be seen talking down the potential impact their manifesto policies may have”.
In addition, Mr Mould told The National, Mr Starmer may have a few macroeconomic trends on his side as well.
“Oil and energy prices have calmed down, inflation has cooled, unemployment is still low and wage growth is robust,” he said.
“The GfK consumer confidence survey is showing improvement as a result and that could filter through to consumer spending, an important factor in an economy where services represent the bulk GDP and one that could get a further boost if the Bank of England starts to cut interest rates and lower the cost of mortgages, credit cards and other loans.”
'Guessing which way the wind is blowing'
Nonetheless, any new government still faces significant economic headwinds, said Stuart Cole at Equiti Capital.
“I accept that any forecasts going out more than a few months don’t carry much more weight than sticking your finger in the air and guessing which way the wind is blowing,” he told The National, “but the underlying picture is still fragile – consumer and business confidence is weak, global demand remains subdued.”
As such, at least in the short term, for most analysts the winner of the election will be caught between a rock and a hard place.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is at its highest point for 63 years and foreign direct investment fell for four out of the last five quarters up to the end of last year.
If it wants to avoid spending cuts, Labour will need to either increase taxes or increase borrowing, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), neither of which goes hand-in-glove with GDP growth.
But the IFS has accused both Labour and the Conservatives of vagueness over the economy in their manifesto pledges, saying both had “hidden and ducked” the serious tax and borrowing questions, creating a “knowledge vacuum”.
Mr Starmer's predictions, like all forecasts, can only be proven one way or the other through the passage of time and while many economists see 2.5 per cent growth in the short-term as a remote possibility, it could be a more realistic prospect further down the line.
“I don’t think it is reasonable to expect the economy to grow by 2.5 per cent per annum any time soon,” Mr Cole told The National.
“But if Starmer was serious about boosting growth and action on the measures needed very soon in the next parliament, then potentially we might be able to see growth of that magnitude in a second Labour term.”
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
The Facility’s Versatility
Between the start of the 2020 IPL on September 20, and the end of the Pakistan Super League this coming Thursday, the Zayed Cricket Stadium has had an unprecedented amount of traffic.
Never before has a ground in this country – or perhaps anywhere in the world – had such a volume of major-match cricket.
And yet scoring has remained high, and Abu Dhabi has seen some classic encounters in every format of the game.
October 18, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders tied with Sunrisers Hyderabad
The two playoff-chasing sides put on 163 apiece, before Kolkata went on to win the Super Over
January 8, ODI, UAE beat Ireland by six wickets
A century by CP Rizwan underpinned one of UAE’s greatest ever wins, as they chased 270 to win with an over to spare
February 6, T10, Northern Warriors beat Delhi Bulls by eight wickets
The final of the T10 was chiefly memorable for a ferocious over of fast bowling from Fidel Edwards to Nicholas Pooran
March 14, Test, Afghanistan beat Zimbabwe by six wickets
Eleven wickets for Rashid Khan, 1,305 runs scored in five days, and a last session finish
June 17, PSL, Islamabad United beat Peshawar Zalmi by 15 runs
Usman Khawaja scored a hundred as Islamabad posted the highest score ever by a Pakistan team in T20 cricket
McIlroy's struggles in 2016/17
European Tour: 6 events, 16 rounds, 5 cuts, 0 wins, 3 top-10s, 4 top-25s, 72,5567 points, ranked 16th
PGA Tour: 8 events, 26 rounds, 6 cuts, 0 wins, 4 top-10s, 5 top-25s, 526 points, ranked 71st
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
Key findings
- Over a period of seven years, a team of scientists analysed dietary data from 50,000 North American adults.
- Eating one or two meals a day was associated with a relative decrease in BMI, compared with three meals. Snacks count as a meal. Likewise, participants who ate more than three meals a day experienced an increase in BMI: the more meals a day, the greater the increase.
- People who ate breakfast experienced a relative decrease in their BMI compared with “breakfast-skippers”.
- Those who turned the eating day on its head to make breakfast the biggest meal of the day, did even better.
- But scrapping dinner altogether gave the best results. The study found that the BMI of subjects who had a long overnight fast (of 18 hours or more) decreased when compared even with those who had a medium overnight fast, of between 12 and 17 hours.
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Results
2pm: Serve U – Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m; Winner: Violent Justice, Pat Dobbs (jockey), Doug Watson (trainer)
2.30pm: Al Shafar Investment – Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,400m; Winner: Desert Wisdom, Bernardo Pinheiro, Ahmed Al Shemaili
3pm: Commercial Bank of Dubai – Handicap (TB) Dh68,000 (D) 1,200m; Winner: Fawaareq, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
3.30pm: Shadwell – Rated Conditions (TB) Dh100,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Down On Da Bayou, Xavier Ziani, Salem bin Ghadayer
4pm: Dubai Real Estate Centre – Maiden (TB) Dh60,000 (D) 1,600m; Winner: Rakeez, Patrick Cosgrave, Bhupat Seemar
4.30pm: Al Redha Insurance Brokers – Handicap (TB) Dh78,000 (D) 1,800m; Winner: Capla Crusader, Bernardo Pinheiro, Rashed Bouresly
HAJJAN
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
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Look%20Both%20Ways
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More coverage from the Future Forum
Fixtures (all in UAE time)
Friday
Everton v Burnley 11pm
Saturday
Bournemouth v Tottenham Hotspur 3.30pm
West Ham United v Southampton 6pm
Wolves v Fulham 6pm
Cardiff City v Crystal Palace 8.30pm
Newcastle United v Liverpool 10.45pm
Sunday
Chelsea v Watford 5pm
Huddersfield v Manchester United 5pm
Arsenal v Brighton 7.30pm
Monday
Manchester City v Leicester City 11pm
Company%20Profile
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Ain Issa camp:
- Established in 2016
- Houses 13,309 people, 2,092 families, 62 per cent children
- Of the adult population, 49 per cent men, 51 per cent women (not including foreigners annexe)
- Most from Deir Ezzor and Raqqa
- 950 foreigners linked to ISIS and their families
- NGO Blumont runs camp management for the UN
- One of the nine official (UN recognised) camps in the region
Awar Qalb
Director: Jamal Salem
Starring: Abdulla Zaid, Joma Ali, Neven Madi and Khadija Sleiman
Two stars
Various Artists
Habibi Funk: An Eclectic Selection Of Music From The Arab World (Habibi Funk)
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Fines for littering
In Dubai:
Dh200 for littering or spitting in the Dubai Metro
Dh500 for throwing cigarette butts or chewing gum on the floor, or littering from a vehicle.
Dh1,000 for littering on a beach, spitting in public places, throwing a cigarette butt from a vehicle
In Sharjah and other emirates
Dh500 for littering - including cigarette butts and chewing gum - in public places and beaches in Sharjah
Dh2,000 for littering in Sharjah deserts
Dh500 for littering from a vehicle in Ras Al Khaimah
Dh1,000 for littering from a car in Abu Dhabi
Dh1,000 to Dh100,000 for dumping waste in residential or public areas in Al Ain
Dh10,000 for littering at Ajman's beaches
UAE SQUAD
Goalkeepers: Ali Khaseif, Fahad Al Dhanhani, Mohammed Al Shamsi, Adel Al Hosani
Defenders: Bandar Al Ahbabi, Shaheen Abdulrahman, Walid Abbas, Mahmoud Khamis, Mohammed Barghash, Khalifa Al Hammadi, Hassan Al Mahrami, Yousef Jaber, Salem Rashid, Mohammed Al Attas, Alhassan Saleh
Midfielders: Ali Salmeen, Abdullah Ramadan, Abdullah Al Naqbi, Majed Hassan, Yahya Nader, Ahmed Barman, Abdullah Hamad, Khalfan Mubarak, Khalil Al Hammadi, Tahnoun Al Zaabi, Harib Abdallah, Mohammed Jumah, Yahya Al Ghassani
Forwards: Fabio De Lima, Caio Canedo, Ali Saleh, Ali Mabkhout, Sebastian Tagliabue, Zayed Al Ameri
SQUADS
UAE
Mohammed Naveed (captain), Mohamed Usman (vice-captain), Ashfaq Ahmed, Chirag Suri, Shaiman Anwar, Mohammed Boota, Ghulam Shabber, Imran Haider, Tahir Mughal, Amir Hayat, Zahoor Khan, Qadeer Ahmed, Fahad Nawaz, Abdul Shakoor, Sultan Ahmed, CP Rizwan
Nepal
Paras Khadka (captain), Gyanendra Malla, Dipendra Singh Airee, Pradeep Airee, Binod Bhandari, Avinash Bohara, Sundeep Jora, Sompal Kami, Karan KC, Rohit Paudel, Sandeep Lamichhane, Lalit Rajbanshi, Basant Regmi, Pawan Sarraf, Bhim Sharki, Aarif Sheikh
Sheer grandeur
The Owo building is 14 storeys high, seven of which are below ground, with the 30,000 square feet of amenities located subterranean, including a 16-seat private cinema, seven lounges, a gym, games room, treatment suites and bicycle storage.
A clear distinction between the residences and the Raffles hotel with the amenities operated separately.
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
The specs
AT4 Ultimate, as tested
Engine: 6.2-litre V8
Power: 420hp
Torque: 623Nm
Transmission: 10-speed automatic
Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)
On sale: Now
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
TWISTERS
Director: Lee Isaac Chung
Starring: Glen Powell, Daisy Edgar-Jones, Anthony Ramos
Rating: 2.5/5
EA Sports FC 25
Developer: EA Vancouver, EA Romania
Publisher: EA Sports
Consoles: Nintendo Switch, PlayStation 4&5, Xbox One and Xbox Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
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The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)
Specs
Price, base: Dhs850,000
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 591bhp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.3L / 100km
