Geopolitics and macroeconomic risks are causing the world's economy to shift towards regionalisation and away from globalisation, a major report claimed on Tuesday.
The Future of Trade: Decouple and Reconfigured by the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) said heightened geopolitical tensions and economic risks have meant trade is increasingly focusing on the regional rather than the global and, as a result, supply chains are resetting as companies “prioritise reliability and security over cost”.
“Regionalisation is the new reality driven by geopolitics,” said Dr Hamad Buamim, chairman of the board at DMCC told The National.
Introducing the report, which is a compilation of interviews with more than 150 business leaders, experts and trade specialists as well as data analysis, DMCC's chief executive and executive chairman, Ahmed Bin Sulayem said that “geopolitics and macroeconomic uncertainty are driving the formation of new trade hubs and corridors, restructuring supply chains in the process”.
“Global trade is going through a period of profound change and with it a new range of opportunities for businesses.”
Transformative period
These opportunities will be most profound in Asia and the Middle East, as these regions are set to play an increasingly important role in world trade, as new alliances take shape and companies look to de-risk their supply chains away from what was once the basic model of globalisation.
“Global trade faces a transformative period ahead,” said Feryal Ahmadi, chief operating officer at DMCC.
“This [period] will be marked by the disillusion of traditional trade networks and in their place, we will see regional alliances, where partners and trusted allies come together to take centre stage.
“We find ourselves pushed forward by a tornado of change.
“We all see the rivalry that's ramping up between the US and China; there are open conflicts in the Middle East and Europe and about 80 nations around the world and maybe half of the world's population will be going into the polls in 2024.
“All of these events have the potential to unleash new waves of nationalism and trade protectionism, threatening to derail our path to global economic recovery,” she added.
Nonetheless, the DMCC report does predict that the global economy will continue to grow in 2024, albeit by a modest 2.6 per cent. The services sector will provide much of the strength, especially as AI becomes integrated into supply chains and trade finance.
Terms such as 'friendshoring' and 'nearshoring' will become much more commonly used in global trade analysis, as countries and companies seek to mitigate the risks to their supply chains in the face of an uncertain world by seeking out familiar trade and political allies closer to home.
Neutral stance
Companies have been acutely aware of disruptions to their supply chains for some years, following the Covid pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the war in Gaza, as well as tensions over tariffs and technology between the US and China.
As such, businesses are now valuing efficiency and reliability over cost when it comes to their supply chains. For example, this may mean manufacturers will switch their sources of supply from China to the likes of Mexico or Vietnam.
Dr Buamim believes in an increasingly tense geopolitical world, trade hubs like Dubai are especially well-placed, not least because of its advanced trade infrastructure, but also “from being politically neutral”.
“Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will benefit from taking this (neutral) stance,” he told The National.
The Future of Trade report highlighted geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, as the single biggest challenge to the growth of trade. Businesses and markets abhor uncertainty and conflict, and while trade is predicted to grow, it'll be in a very different way from the way it did 20 or 30 years ago.
Bilateral and multilateral regional trade agreements will increasingly make the World Trade Organisation's goal of unfettered worldwide trade a distant dream.
“If we had a choice between regionalisation and globalisation, we'd choose globalisation again, but we don't have a choice, Dr Buamim told The National.
“Globalisation has, unfortunately, been failing for the last 20 years. The WTO couldn't do much and we believe it's just going to keep failing going forward.”
“Regionalisation is the way forward.”
Despacito's dominance in numbers
Released: 2017
Peak chart position: No.1 in more than 47 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Lebanon
Views: 5.3 billion on YouTube
Sales: With 10 million downloads in the US, Despacito became the first Latin single to receive Diamond sales certification
Streams: 1.3 billion combined audio and video by the end of 2017, making it the biggest digital hit of the year.
Awards: 17, including Record of the Year at last year’s prestigious Latin Grammy Awards, as well as five Billboard Music Awards
HAJJAN
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Dhadak
Director: Shashank Khaitan
Starring: Janhvi Kapoor, Ishaan Khattar, Ashutosh Rana
Stars: 3
Red flags
- Promises of high, fixed or 'guaranteed' returns.
- Unregulated structured products or complex investments often used to bypass traditional safeguards.
- Lack of clear information, vague language, no access to audited financials.
- Overseas companies targeting investors in other jurisdictions - this can make legal recovery difficult.
- Hard-selling tactics - creating urgency, offering 'exclusive' deals.
Courtesy: Carol Glynn, founder of Conscious Finance Coaching
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
Where can I submit a sample?
Volunteers can now submit DNA samples at a number of centres across Abu Dhabi. The programme is open to all ages.
Collection centres in Abu Dhabi include:
- Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC)
- Biogenix Labs in Masdar City
- Al Towayya in Al Ain
- NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City
- Bareen International Hospital
- NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
- NMC Royal Medical Centre - Abu Dhabi
- NMC Royal Women’s Hospital.
Abu Dhabi racecard
5pm: Maiden (Purebred Arabians); Dh80,000; 1,400m.
5.30pm: Maiden (PA); Dh80,00; 1,400m.
6pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (PA); Group 3; Dh500,000; 1,600m.
6.30pm: Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan National Day Cup (Thoroughbred); Listed; Dh380,000; 1,600m
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup for Private Owners Handicap (PA); Dh70,000; 1,400m.
7.30pm: Handicap (PA); Dh80,000; 1,600m
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Brief scoreline:
Manchester United 2
Rashford 28', Martial 72'
Watford 1
Doucoure 90'
Results
6.30pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round-2 Group 1 (PA) US$75,000 (Dirt) 1,900m
Winner: Ziyadd, Richard Mullen (jockey), Jean de Roualle (trainer).
7.05pm: Al Rashidiya Group 2 (TB) $250,000 (Turf) 1,800m
Winner: Barney Roy, William Buick, Charlie Appleby.
7.40pm: Meydan Cup Listed Handicap (TB) $175,000 (T) 2,810m
Winner: Secret Advisor, Tadhg O’Shea, Charlie Appleby.
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) $175,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Plata O Plomo, Carlos Lopez, Susanne Berneklint.
8.50pm: Handicap (TB) $135,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass.
9.25pm: Al Shindagha Sprint Group 3 (TB) $200,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Gladiator King, Mickael Barzalona, Satish Seemar.
The specs
Engine: 3.8-litre V6
Power: 295hp at 6,000rpm
Torque: 355Nm at 5,200rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.7L/100km
Price: Dh179,999-plus
On sale: now
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Fight card
- Aliu Bamidele Lasisi (Nigeria) beat Artid Vamrungauea (Thailand) POINTS
- Julaidah Abdulfatah (Saudi Arabia) beat Martin Kabrhel (Czech Rep) POINTS
- Kem Ljungquist (Denmark) beat Mourad Omar (Egypt) TKO
- Michael Lawal (UK) beat Tamas Kozma (Hungary) KO
- Zuhayr Al Qahtani (Saudi Arabia) beat Mohammed Mahmoud (UK) POINTS
- Darren Surtees (UK) beat Kane Baker (UK) KO
- Chris Eubank Jr (UK) beat JJ McDonagh (Ireland) TKO
- Callum Smith (UK) beat George Groves (UK) KO
The bio
Academics: Phd in strategic management in University of Wales
Number one caps: His best-seller caps are in shades of grey, blue, black and yellow
Reading: Is immersed in books on colours to understand more about the usage of different shades
Sport: Started playing polo two years ago. Helps him relax, plus he enjoys the speed and focus
Cars: Loves exotic cars and currently drives a Bentley Bentayga
Holiday: Favourite travel destinations are London and St Tropez
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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THE SPECS
Engine: Four-cylinder 2.5-litre
Transmission: Seven-speed auto
Power: 165hp
Torque: 241Nm
Price: Dh99,900 to Dh134,000
On sale: now
