Geopolitics and macroeconomic risks are causing the world's economy to shift towards regionalisation and away from globalisation, a major report claimed on Tuesday.
The Future of Trade: Decouple and Reconfigured by the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) said heightened geopolitical tensions and economic risks have meant trade is increasingly focusing on the regional rather than the global and, as a result, supply chains are resetting as companies “prioritise reliability and security over cost”.
“Regionalisation is the new reality driven by geopolitics,” said Dr Hamad Buamim, chairman of the board at DMCC told The National.
Introducing the report, which is a compilation of interviews with more than 150 business leaders, experts and trade specialists as well as data analysis, DMCC's chief executive and executive chairman, Ahmed Bin Sulayem said that “geopolitics and macroeconomic uncertainty are driving the formation of new trade hubs and corridors, restructuring supply chains in the process”.
“Global trade is going through a period of profound change and with it a new range of opportunities for businesses.”
Transformative period
These opportunities will be most profound in Asia and the Middle East, as these regions are set to play an increasingly important role in world trade, as new alliances take shape and companies look to de-risk their supply chains away from what was once the basic model of globalisation.
“Global trade faces a transformative period ahead,” said Feryal Ahmadi, chief operating officer at DMCC.
“This [period] will be marked by the disillusion of traditional trade networks and in their place, we will see regional alliances, where partners and trusted allies come together to take centre stage.
“We find ourselves pushed forward by a tornado of change.
“We all see the rivalry that's ramping up between the US and China; there are open conflicts in the Middle East and Europe and about 80 nations around the world and maybe half of the world's population will be going into the polls in 2024.
“All of these events have the potential to unleash new waves of nationalism and trade protectionism, threatening to derail our path to global economic recovery,” she added.
Nonetheless, the DMCC report does predict that the global economy will continue to grow in 2024, albeit by a modest 2.6 per cent. The services sector will provide much of the strength, especially as AI becomes integrated into supply chains and trade finance.
Terms such as 'friendshoring' and 'nearshoring' will become much more commonly used in global trade analysis, as countries and companies seek to mitigate the risks to their supply chains in the face of an uncertain world by seeking out familiar trade and political allies closer to home.
Neutral stance
Companies have been acutely aware of disruptions to their supply chains for some years, following the Covid pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the war in Gaza, as well as tensions over tariffs and technology between the US and China.
As such, businesses are now valuing efficiency and reliability over cost when it comes to their supply chains. For example, this may mean manufacturers will switch their sources of supply from China to the likes of Mexico or Vietnam.
Dr Buamim believes in an increasingly tense geopolitical world, trade hubs like Dubai are especially well-placed, not least because of its advanced trade infrastructure, but also “from being politically neutral”.
“Countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will benefit from taking this (neutral) stance,” he told The National.
The Future of Trade report highlighted geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, as the single biggest challenge to the growth of trade. Businesses and markets abhor uncertainty and conflict, and while trade is predicted to grow, it'll be in a very different way from the way it did 20 or 30 years ago.
Bilateral and multilateral regional trade agreements will increasingly make the World Trade Organisation's goal of unfettered worldwide trade a distant dream.
“If we had a choice between regionalisation and globalisation, we'd choose globalisation again, but we don't have a choice, Dr Buamim told The National.
“Globalisation has, unfortunately, been failing for the last 20 years. The WTO couldn't do much and we believe it's just going to keep failing going forward.”
“Regionalisation is the way forward.”
The biog
Hobbies: Salsa dancing “It's in my blood” and listening to music in different languages
Favourite place to travel to: “Thailand, as it's gorgeous, food is delicious, their massages are to die for!”
Favourite food: “I'm a vegetarian, so I can't get enough of salad.”
Favourite film: “I love watching documentaries, and am fascinated by nature, animals, human anatomy. I love watching to learn!”
Best spot in the UAE: “I fell in love with Fujairah and anywhere outside the big cities, where I can get some peace and get a break from the busy lifestyle”
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Grubtech
Founders: Mohamed Al Fayed and Mohammed Hammedi
Launched: October 2019
Employees: 50
Financing stage: Seed round (raised $2 million)
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
Living in...
This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.
Despacito's dominance in numbers
Released: 2017
Peak chart position: No.1 in more than 47 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and Lebanon
Views: 5.3 billion on YouTube
Sales: With 10 million downloads in the US, Despacito became the first Latin single to receive Diamond sales certification
Streams: 1.3 billion combined audio and video by the end of 2017, making it the biggest digital hit of the year.
Awards: 17, including Record of the Year at last year’s prestigious Latin Grammy Awards, as well as five Billboard Music Awards
More on animal trafficking
What the law says
Micro-retirement is not a recognised concept or employment status under Federal Decree Law No. 33 of 2021 on the Regulation of Labour Relations (as amended) (UAE Labour Law). As such, it reflects a voluntary work-life balance practice, rather than a recognised legal employment category, according to Dilini Loku, senior associate for law firm Gateley Middle East.
“Some companies may offer formal sabbatical policies or career break programmes; however, beyond such arrangements, there is no automatic right or statutory entitlement to extended breaks,” she explains.
“Any leave taken beyond statutory entitlements, such as annual leave, is typically regarded as unpaid leave in accordance with Article 33 of the UAE Labour Law. While employees may legally take unpaid leave, such requests are subject to the employer’s discretion and require approval.”
If an employee resigns to pursue micro-retirement, the employment contract is terminated, and the employer is under no legal obligation to rehire the employee in the future unless specific contractual agreements are in place (such as return-to-work arrangements), which are generally uncommon, Ms Loku adds.
Anghami
Started: December 2011
Co-founders: Elie Habib, Eddy Maroun
Based: Beirut and Dubai
Sector: Entertainment
Size: 85 employees
Stage: Series C
Investors: MEVP, du, Mobily, MBC, Samena Capital
Profile of Hala Insurance
Date Started: September 2018
Founders: Walid and Karim Dib
Based: Abu Dhabi
Employees: Nine
Amount raised: $1.2 million
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, AB Accelerator, 500 Startups, private backers
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Specs%3A%202024%20McLaren%20Artura%20Spider
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V6%20and%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20700hp%20at%207%2C500rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20720Nm%20at%202%2C250rpm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Eight-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203.0sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E330kph%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20From%20Dh1.14%20million%20(%24311%2C000)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
TRAP
Starring: Josh Hartnett, Saleka Shyamalan, Ariel Donaghue
Director: M Night Shyamalan
Rating: 3/5
The specs: 2018 Renault Megane
Price, base / as tested Dh52,900 / Dh59,200
Engine 1.6L in-line four-cylinder
Transmission Continuously variable transmission
Power 115hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque 156Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.6L / 100km
Explainer: Tanween Design Programme
Non-profit arts studio Tashkeel launched this annual initiative with the intention of supporting budding designers in the UAE. This year, three talents were chosen from hundreds of applicants to be a part of the sixth creative development programme. These are architect Abdulla Al Mulla, interior designer Lana El Samman and graphic designer Yara Habib.
The trio have been guided by experts from the industry over the course of nine months, as they developed their own products that merge their unique styles with traditional elements of Emirati design. This includes laboratory sessions, experimental and collaborative practice, investigation of new business models and evaluation.
It is led by British contemporary design project specialist Helen Voce and mentor Kevin Badni, and offers participants access to experts from across the world, including the likes of UK designer Gareth Neal and multidisciplinary designer and entrepreneur, Sheikh Salem Al Qassimi.
The final pieces are being revealed in a worldwide limited-edition release on the first day of Downtown Designs at Dubai Design Week 2019. Tashkeel will be at stand E31 at the exhibition.
Lisa Ball-Lechgar, deputy director of Tashkeel, said: “The diversity and calibre of the applicants this year … is reflective of the dynamic change that the UAE art and design industry is witnessing, with young creators resolute in making their bold design ideas a reality.”
What are NFTs?
Are non-fungible tokens a currency, asset, or a licensing instrument? Arnab Das, global market strategist EMEA at Invesco, says they are mix of all of three.
You can buy, hold and use NFTs just like US dollars and Bitcoins. “They can appreciate in value and even produce cash flows.”
However, while money is fungible, NFTs are not. “One Bitcoin, dollar, euro or dirham is largely indistinguishable from the next. Nothing ties a dollar bill to a particular owner, for example. Nor does it tie you to to any goods, services or assets you bought with that currency. In contrast, NFTs confer specific ownership,” Mr Das says.
This makes NFTs closer to a piece of intellectual property such as a work of art or licence, as you can claim royalties or profit by exchanging it at a higher value later, Mr Das says. “They could provide a sustainable income stream.”
This income will depend on future demand and use, which makes NFTs difficult to value. “However, there is a credible use case for many forms of intellectual property, notably art, songs, videos,” Mr Das says.
SOUTH%20KOREA%20SQUAD
%3Cp%3E%0D%3Cstrong%3EGoalkeepers%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKim%20Seung-gyu%2C%20Jo%20Hyeon-woo%2C%20Song%20Bum-keun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDefenders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKim%20Young-gwon%2C%20Kim%20Min-jae%2C%20Jung%20Seung-hyun%2C%20Kim%20Ju-sung%2C%20Kim%20Ji-soo%2C%20Seol%20Young-woo%2C%20Kim%20Tae-hwan%2C%20Lee%20Ki-je%2C%20Kim%20Jin-su%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMidfielders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPark%20Yong-woo%2C%20Hwang%20In-beom%2C%20Hong%20Hyun-seok%2C%20Lee%20Soon-min%2C%20Lee%20Jae-sung%2C%20Lee%20Kang-in%2C%20Son%20Heung-min%20(captain)%2C%20Jeong%20Woo-yeong%2C%20Moon%20Seon-min%2C%20Park%20Jin-seob%2C%20Yang%20Hyun-jun%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStrikers%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EHwang%20Hee-chan%2C%20Cho%20Gue-sung%2C%20Oh%20Hyeon-gyu%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
Gulf Men's League final
Dubai Hurricanes 24-12 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
What can you do?
Document everything immediately; including dates, times, locations and witnesses
Seek professional advice from a legal expert
You can report an incident to HR or an immediate supervisor
You can use the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratisation’s dedicated hotline
In criminal cases, you can contact the police for additional support
Read more from Aya Iskandarani
BUNDESLIGA FIXTURES
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
THE BIO
Bio Box
Role Model: Sheikh Zayed, God bless his soul
Favorite book: Zayed Biography of the leader
Favorite quote: To be or not to be, that is the question, from William Shakespeare's Hamlet
Favorite food: seafood
Favorite place to travel: Lebanon
Favorite movie: Braveheart
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs: 2018 Kia Picanto
Price: From Dh39,500
Engine: 1.2L inline four-cylinder
Transmission: Four-speed auto
Power: 86hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 122Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 6.0L / 100km
Tonight's Chat on The National
Tonight's Chat is a series of online conversations on The National. The series features a diverse range of celebrities, politicians and business leaders from around the Arab world.
Tonight’s Chat host Ricardo Karam is a renowned author and broadcaster with a decades-long career in TV. He has previously interviewed Bill Gates, Carlos Ghosn, Andre Agassi and the late Zaha Hadid, among others. Karam is also the founder of Takreem.
Intellectually curious and thought-provoking, Tonight’s Chat moves the conversation forward.
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The view from The National
England squad
Moeen Ali, James Anderson, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Dominic Bess, James Bracey, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Ben Foakes, Lewis Gregory, Keaton Jennings, Dan Lawrence, Jack Leach, Saqib Mahmood, Craig Overton, Jamie Overton, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Pope, Ollie Robinson, Joe Root, Dom Sibley, Ben Stokes, Olly Stone, Amar Virdi, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
