A leading British think tank on Thursday said it does not expect the Bank of England to lower interest rates until August, despite the “continued anaemic growth trend” of the UK economy.
On Thursday, the Bank of England left interest rates on hold for the sixth time at 5.25 per cent. The BoE's nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by 7-2 to keep rates at their highest level in 16 years. Two members of the MPC, Swati Dhingra and Dave Ramsden, voted to lower rates to 5 per cent.
While the Bank of England didn't move interest rates, some saw signals that the MPC is moving towards reducing them, given that Mr Ramsden joined Ms Dhingra, who was the only member to vote for a cut in March, in voting for a cut.
However, some analysts thought the news of an extra MPC member concluding that interest rates should come down immediately was not enough to alter forecasts.
“The BoE doesn’t want to make a premature decision that it ends up having to unwind later in the year, so it could even be Q4 before they feel comfortable to start unwinding their fiscal tightening despite the two votes for a 25 bps (0.25 per cent) cut,” said Mahmoud Alkudsi, senior market analyst at ADSS.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research forecast only two interest rate cuts this year, to settle at 4.75 per cent, reflecting a “cautious unwinding of monetary policy given the upside risks posed by persistent core inflation, elevated wage growth and geopolitical challenges”.
Nonetheless, investment strategists Bill Papadakis and Luca Bindelli at Lombard Odier expect a 1 per cent fall in interest rates by the end of the year, to 4.25 per cent.
The cutting will possibly start in June, “with a weakening labour market expected to bring down wage growth and high services inflation”, they said.
Others see the Bank of England as having far more hawks than doves, and say turning one into the other on the MPC will be a much longer process than some are forecasting.
“There is no chance the Bank of England will cut rates this summer,” Samuel Mather-Holgate, an independent financial adviser at Mather and Murray Financial told Newspage.
“Their decisions have confirmed that they are not forward-looking and will only respond once inflation is below target. This means there will only be one cut this year, and that’s bad news for the UK businesses, households and the broader economy.”
Inflation to drop below target
The NIESR also expects inflation in Britain to fall below the Bank of England's 2 per cent target in April driven by a fall in the energy price cap. However, they expect that stubborn core inflation will have to fall by much more than it has so far.
The Consumer Prices Index rose by 3.2 per cent rose in March, down from 3.4 per cent in February, figures compiled by the Office for National Statistics show.
But core inflation (which strips out energy and food), was still higher at 4.2 per cent in March, down from 4.5 per cent in February.
“The big factor causing hesitation is the prospect that the 10 per cent hike in the minimum wage, which took effect last month, will lead to a broader increase in wage inflation,” said Steven Bell, chief economist, Europe, Middle East and Africa, at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
“Yes, the three-month on three-month rate will rise but that should be a one-off.”
On economic growth, the NIESR forecasts gross national product growth of 0.8 per cent in 2024, higher than recently downgraded forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund. Nonetheless, the NIESR said “geopolitical risks from the conflict in the Middle East present substantial downside risk” and that “the trend growth rate of UK GDP is only 1 per cent”.
The think tank also said the winner of the next UK general election, expected later this year, will have to raise taxes simply to maintain the current levels of public service spending. In addition, the current Conservative government has no “fiscal headroom” to make any further tax cuts before the election.
“Despite the welcome fall in inflation, UK growth remains anaemic,” said Prof Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting at the NIESR.
“This will make it difficult for any incoming government to carry out the much-needed investment in infrastructure and the green transition, as well as increase spending on public services and defence, without either raising taxes or rewriting the fiscal rules.
“This makes clear the need to reform the fiscal framework to enable the government to do what is needed for the economy in a fiscally sustainable way.”
'Change the fiscal framework'
What that would mean is a complete overhaul of the fiscal rules, which were laid down in the late 1990s, whereby governments only borrow to invest and not to fund current spending (better known as the 'golden rule'), and that the ratio of public sector net debt to GDP would not exceed 40 per cent of GDP.
However, successive governments have broken the debt-to-GDP ratio rule since the 2008 global financial crisis and it now sits at about 98 per cent.
So, the logic becomes: rather than battling to win a losing game, change the rules of the game itself given that, as the NIESR points out, the rules inadvertently prevent good fiscal decision-making by “constraining the public investment needed to improve economic growth and ensure the United Kingdom meets its net-zero target by 2050".
“We are currently missing fiscal targets,” Prof Millard said.
“If you want to hit the fiscal target, you have to literally raise taxes. The most efficient way of doing that is through sticking a penny or two or three on income tax.
“I don't think they should do that though. I think what they should do is change the fiscal framework.
“It's the targets that are creating the problem; it's the targets that are forcing governments to put brakes on the economy. If those targets weren't there, we could have the additional public investment, and we could have more targeted support for lower-income households.
“They need to change the framework. That's the message.”
Stage 5 results
1 Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates 3:48:53
2 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team -
3 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott -
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:00:04
5 Ilnur Zakarin (RUS) CCC Team 0:00:07
General Classification:
1 Adam Yates (GBR) Mitchelton-Scott 20:35:04
2 Tadej Pogacar (SlO) UAE Team Emirates 0:01:01
3 Alexey Lutsenko (KAZ) Astana Pro Team 0:01:33
4 David Gaudu (FRA) Groupama-FDJ 0:01:48
5 Rafał Majka (POL) Bora-Hansgrohe 0:02:11
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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3.
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UAE
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4.
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Japan
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5
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Norway
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6.
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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The biog
Prefers vegetables and fish to meat and would choose salad over pizza
Walks daily as part of regular exercise routine
France is her favourite country to visit
Has written books and manuals on women’s education, first aid and health for the family
Family: Husband, three sons and a daughter
Fathiya Nadhari's instructions to her children was to give back to the country
The children worked as young volunteers in social, education and health campaigns
Her motto is to never stop working for the country
Gran Gala del Calcio 2019 winners
Best Player: Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus)
Best Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini (Atalanta)
Best Referee: Gianluca Rocchi
Best Goal: Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria vs Napoli)
Best Team: Atalanta
Best XI: Samir Handanovic (Inter); Aleksandar Kolarov (Roma), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli), Joao Cancelo (Juventus*); Miralem Pjanic (Juventus), Josip Ilicic (Atalanta), Nicolo Barella (Cagliari*); Fabio Quagliarella (Sampdoria), Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Duvan Zapata (Atalanta)
Serie B Best Young Player: Sandro Tonali (Brescia)
Best Women’s Goal: Thaisa (Milan vs Juventus)
Best Women’s Player: Manuela Giugliano (Milan)
Best Women’s XI: Laura Giuliani (Milan); Alia Guagni (Fiorentina), Sara Gama (Juventus), Cecilia Salvai (Juventus), Elisa Bartoli (Roma); Aurora Galli (Juventus), Manuela Giugliano (Roma), Valentina Cernoia (Juventus); Valentina Giacinti (Milan), Ilaria Mauro (Fiorentina), Barbara Bonansea (Juventus)
Keane on …
Liverpool’s Uefa Champions League bid: “They’re great. With the attacking force they have, for me, they’re certainly one of the favourites. You look at the teams left in it - they’re capable of scoring against anybody at any given time. Defensively they’ve been good, so I don’t see any reason why they couldn’t go on and win it.”
Mohamed Salah’s debut campaign at Anfield: “Unbelievable. He’s been phenomenal. You can name the front three, but for him on a personal level, he’s been unreal. He’s been great to watch and hopefully he can continue now until the end of the season - which I’m sure he will, because he’s been in fine form. He’s been incredible this season.”
Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s instant impact at former club LA Galaxy: “Brilliant. It’s been a great start for him and for the club. They were crying out for another big name there. They were lacking that, for the prestige of LA Galaxy. And now they have one of the finest stars. I hope they can go win something this year.”
UPI facts
More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
The Sand Castle
Director: Matty Brown
Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea
Rating: 2.5/5
Meatless Days
Sara Suleri, with an introduction by Kamila Shamsie
Penguin
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The specs
Engine 60kwh FWD
Battery Rimac 120kwh Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide (LiNiMnCoO2) chemistry
Power 204hp Torque 360Nm
Price, base / as tested Dh174,500
SPECS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202-litre%204-cylinder%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E268hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E380Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh208%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
THE%20SPECS
%3Cp%3EBattery%3A%2060kW%20lithium-ion%20phosphate%3Cbr%3EPower%3A%20Up%20to%20201bhp%3Cbr%3E0%20to%20100kph%3A%207.3%20seconds%3Cbr%3ERange%3A%20418km%3Cbr%3EPrice%3A%20From%20Dh149%2C900%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20Now%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What drives subscription retailing?
Once the domain of newspaper home deliveries, subscription model retailing has combined with e-commerce to permeate myriad products and services.
The concept has grown tremendously around the world and is forecast to thrive further, according to UnivDatos Market Insights’ report on recent and predicted trends in the sector.
The global subscription e-commerce market was valued at $13.2 billion (Dh48.5bn) in 2018. It is forecast to touch $478.2bn in 2025, and include the entertainment, fitness, food, cosmetics, baby care and fashion sectors.
The report says subscription-based services currently constitute “a small trend within e-commerce”. The US hosts almost 70 per cent of recurring plan firms, including leaders Dollar Shave Club, Hello Fresh and Netflix. Walmart and Sephora are among longer established retailers entering the space.
UnivDatos cites younger and affluent urbanites as prime subscription targets, with women currently the largest share of end-users.
That’s expected to remain unchanged until 2025, when women will represent a $246.6bn market share, owing to increasing numbers of start-ups targeting women.
Personal care and beauty occupy the largest chunk of the worldwide subscription e-commerce market, with changing lifestyles, work schedules, customisation and convenience among the chief future drivers.
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESmartCrowd%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2018%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESiddiq%20Farid%20and%20Musfique%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%20%2F%20PropTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%24650%2C000%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2035%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESeries%20A%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%20institutional%20investors%20and%20notable%20angel%20investors%20(500%20MENA%2C%20Shurooq%2C%20Mada%2C%20Seedstar%2C%20Tricap)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl turbo
Power: 247hp at 6,500rpm
Torque: 370Nm from 1,500-3,500rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 7.8L/100km
Price: from Dh94,900
On sale: now
Factfile on Garbine Muguruza:
Name: Garbine Muguruza (ESP)
World ranking: 15 (will rise to 5 on Monday)
Date of birth: October 8, 1993
Place of birth: Caracas, Venezuela
Place of residence: Geneva, Switzerland
Height: 6ft (1.82m)
Career singles titles: 4
Grand Slam titles: 2 (French Open 2016, Wimbledon 2017)
Career prize money: $13,928,719
Springtime in a Broken Mirror,
Mario Benedetti, Penguin Modern Classics
ONCE UPON A TIME IN GAZA
Starring: Nader Abd Alhay, Majd Eid, Ramzi Maqdisi
Directors: Tarzan and Arab Nasser
Rating: 4.5/5
'Champions'
Director: Manuel Calvo
Stars: Yassir Al Saggaf and Fatima Al Banawi
Rating: 2/5
Company: Instabug
Founded: 2013
Based: Egypt, Cairo
Sector: IT
Employees: 100
Stage: Series A
Investors: Flat6Labs, Accel, Y Combinator and angel investors
MATCH INFO
Everton 2 (Tosun 9', Doucoure 93')
Rotherham United 1 (Olosunde 56')
Man of the Match Olosunde (Rotherham)
Specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%20train%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4.0-litre%20twin-turbo%20V8%20and%20synchronous%20electric%20motor%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20power%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E800hp%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20torque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E950Nm%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EEight-speed%20auto%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBattery%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E25.7kWh%20lithium-ion%3Cbr%3E0-100km%2Fh%3A%203.4sec%3Cbr%3E0-200km%2Fh%3A%2011.4sec%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETop%20speed%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E312km%2Fh%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EMax%20electric-only%20range%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2060km%20(claimed)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Q3%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh1.2m%20(estimate)%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ACC%20T20%20Women%E2%80%99s%20Championship
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20fixtures%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%2017%20v%20Oman%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20June%2018%20v%20Singapore%3Cbr%3EMonday%2C%20June%2020%20v%20Malaysia%3Cbr%3EWednesday%2C%20June%2022%20v%20Qatar%3Cbr%3EFriday%2C%20June%2024%2C%20semi-final%3Cbr%3ESaturday%2C%20June%2025%2C%20final%3Cbr%3E%20%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EUAE%20squad%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chaya%20Mughal%20(captain)%2C%20Esha%20Oza%2C%20Indhuja%20Nandakumar%2C%20Kavisha%20Kumari%2C%20Khushi%20Sharma%2C%20Lavanya%20Keny%2C%20Priyanjali%20Jain%2C%20Rithika%20Rajith%2C%20Samaira%20Dharnidharka%2C%20Sanchin%20Singh%2C%20Siya%20Gokhale%2C%20Suraksha%20Kotte%2C%20Theertha%20Satish%2C%20Vaishnave%20Mahesh%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Checks continue
A High Court judge issued an interim order on Friday suspending a decision by Agriculture Minister Edwin Poots to direct a stop to Brexit agri-food checks at Northern Ireland ports.
Mr Justice Colton said he was making the temporary direction until a judicial review of the minister's unilateral action this week to order a halt to port checks that are required under the Northern Ireland Protocol.
Civil servants have yet to implement the instruction, pending legal clarity on their obligations, and checks are continuing.
