The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for the Middle East and North African region as the conflict raging in Gaza compounds challenges for highly exposed economies.
Assuming that the Israel-Gaza conflict eases after the first quarter of 2024, growth in the Mena region is projected to expand 2.9 per cent this year.
That marks a downward revision of 0.5 percentage points from the fund’s October 2023 estimates of 3.4 per cent growth for Mena economies, the IMF said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East on Wednesday.
The revision primarily reflects voluntary production cuts by oil-exporting nations as well as the adverse implications of the ongoing conflict, especially for the countries that are highly exposed to the war.
The fiscal dent from the war and loss of oil revenue are on top of “necessary tight policy settings in several economies, which are also weighing on growth”, the Washington-based multilateral lender said.
The IMF expects Mena economies, which expanded by 2 per cent in 2023, to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2025, as the effect of adverse factors gradually fades, and robust non-oil growth continues to support economic activity in oil exporting economies.
“The outlook for the Mena region is highly uncertain, and downside risks are resurgent,” the IMF said.
“An escalation or spread of the conflict beyond Gaza and Israel, as well as an intensification of the disruptions in the Red Sea, could have a severe economic impact, including on trade and tourism.”
The regional economies, which expanded by 6.7 per cent in 2022, faced numerous challenges last year with lower oil production, tight policy settings and natural disasters all denting growth. The Israel-Gaza war, which began in early October, was another blow.
The conflict raging in Gaza has turned into a severe humanitarian crisis as more than 24,000 people lost their lives within the first 100 days of which more than two thirds were women and children.
Almost 1.9 million people, nearly 85 per cent of the population, have been internally displaced and poverty rates have probably increased from levels that were estimated at above 50 per cent even before the current conflict, the IMF said.
The conflict is threatening to turn into a full-blown regional war and there have recently been fatal attacks in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan.
Tensions have also spilt into the Red Sea where Yemen's Houthi rebels are attacking ships passing through the main trade route connecting Asia and Europe in retaliation for Israel’s attacks in Gaza. The Houthi attacks in the Red Sea can also potentially disrupt energy supplies from Middle East producers.
On Friday, the Marlin Luanda, a petroleum products tanker vessel operated on behalf of Trafigura, was struck by a missile in the Gulf of Aden after leaving the Red Sea, according to a statement on the company's website.
The heightened security situation in the Red Sea also raises concerns about the conflict’s effect on global trade and supply chains.
During the first half of 2023, trade through the Suez Canal, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea, represented about 12 per cent of global trade, including 30 per cent of global container traffic and 8 per cent of global liquified natural gas shipments.
However, as of January 21, the 10-day cumulative shipping volume through the Suez Canal had dropped close to 50 per cent year-on-year, the IMF said.
At the epicentre of the conflict, the economic outlook has deteriorated sharply. In 2023, the real gross domestic product in West Bank and Gaza contracted about 6 per cent, a nine percentage-point downgrade from IMF’s estimates in October.
There has been an “almost complete collapse of activity in Gaza and … a deep contraction in the West Bank following the tightening of Israeli mobility restrictions and a deteriorating security situation,” the IMF said.
Inflation is estimated to have risen to above 15 per cent on an annual basis at the end of December and the current account deficit is sizeable.
The financial viability of the Palestinian Authority (PA) has also been compromised by the economic contraction and Israel’s decision to not transfer the full amount of monthly “clearance” revenue to the PA, the IMF said.
Overall, the outlook for the external position of economies is deteriorating, with lower expected tourism and trade receipts likely to affect current account balances.
Tourism is a lifeline in many Mena economies, accounting for between 2 and 20 per cent of GDP and between 5 and 50 per cent of goods and services exports before the pandemic, according to IMF estimates.
Oil production cuts would also affect the external position of oil exporting nations and the IMF expects the aggregate current account balance of the Mena region to shrink by about $25 billion.
The IMF has revised down overall growth forecast for the GCC to 0.5 per cent in 2023, 1 percentage point lower than its October estimate, but the economy of the six-member bloc is expected to rebound to 2.7 per cent in 2024.
Yet even with the adverse shock from the conflict and low oil revenue, non-oil growth momentum remains strong in the GCC economies.
Structural reforms by GCC members are supporting economic diversification while increased domestic demand and capital inflows are also contributing to growth, the IMF said.
“Despite a moderation in oil prices, slower global trade, and a boost to imports from rebounding domestic demand, current account surpluses remained at comfortable levels in 2023 after reaching historical highs in 2022.”
In line with global trends, inflation is expected to continue moderating in most Mena countries to 14.4 per cent this year, 0.6 percentage points lower than the estimates in October.
Across Mena oil exporters, headline inflation is forecast to average 8.7 per cent in 2024 and 7.9 per cent in 2025.
“This forecast reflects a projected decline in inflation to below 3 per cent across GCC countries, even as price pressures persist in some non-GCC countries,” the IMF said.
Consumer prices, however, will stay elevated in emerging and middle-income countries of the region at 25.6 per cent and surge to 69.9 per cent for lower income countries, especially Sudan, and Yemen, the fund added.
In addition to the adverse effects of the conflict, elevated public sector gross financing needs are expected to be a significant challenge for most emerging and middle-income nations of the region.
Total financing needs this year are projected at $186 billion, up from $156 billion in 2023, mostly attributable to Egypt and Tunisia.
Uncertainty and downside risks for the region’s economies have risen significantly since October, with the duration of the conflict and scope for escalation still uncertain, according to IMF’s regional economic outlook.
“Even if the conflict remains contained to Gaza and Israel, the situation remains fluid and highly uncertain,” the fund said.
“A protracted conflict with no clear solution would weigh heavily on the region, [while] an escalation or spread of the conflict would exacerbate uncertainty and intensify the impact through various transmission channels, including tourism, foreign direct investment, and energy and financial markets.”
MATCH INFO
Jersey 147 (20 overs)
UAE 112 (19.2 overs)
Jersey win by 35 runs
Company profile
Date started: December 24, 2018
Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer
Based: Dubai Media City
Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)
Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech
Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year
Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020
Asia Cup 2018 final
Who: India v Bangladesh
When: Friday, 3.30pm, Dubai International Stadium
Watch: Live on OSN Cricket HD
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Scoreline
UAE 2-1 Saudi Arabia
UAE Mabkhout 21’, Khalil 59’
Saudi Al Abed (pen) 20’
Man of the match Ahmed Khalil (UAE)
The major Hashd factions linked to Iran:
Badr Organisation: Seen as the most militarily capable faction in the Hashd. Iraqi Shiite exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein set up the group in Tehran in the early 1980s as the Badr Corps under the supervision of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The militia exalts Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but intermittently cooperated with the US military.
Saraya Al Salam (Peace Brigade): Comprised of former members of the officially defunct Mahdi Army, a militia that was commanded by Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and fought US and Iraqi government and other forces between 2004 and 2008. As part of a political overhaul aimed as casting Mr Al Sadr as a more nationalist and less sectarian figure, the cleric formed Saraya Al Salam in 2014. The group’s relations with Iran has been volatile.
Kataeb Hezbollah: The group, which is fighting on behalf of the Bashar Al Assad government in Syria, traces its origins to attacks on US forces in Iraq in 2004 and adopts a tough stance against Washington, calling the United States “the enemy of humanity”.
Asaeb Ahl Al Haq: An offshoot of the Mahdi Army active in Syria. Asaeb Ahl Al Haq’s leader Qais al Khazali was a student of Mr Al Moqtada’s late father Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric who was killed during Saddam Hussein’s rule.
Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba: Formed in 2013 to fight alongside Mr Al Assad’s loyalists in Syria before joining the Hashd. The group is seen as among the most ideological and sectarian-driven Hashd militias in Syria and is the major recruiter of foreign fighters to Syria.
Saraya Al Khorasani: The ICRG formed Saraya Al Khorasani in the mid-1990s and the group is seen as the most ideologically attached to Iran among Tehran’s satellites in Iraq.
(Source: The Wilson Centre, the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation)
Muslim Council of Elders condemns terrorism on religious sites
The Muslim Council of Elders has strongly condemned the criminal attacks on religious sites in Britain.
It firmly rejected “acts of terrorism, which constitute a flagrant violation of the sanctity of houses of worship”.
“Attacking places of worship is a form of terrorism and extremism that threatens peace and stability within societies,” it said.
The council also warned against the rise of hate speech, racism, extremism and Islamophobia. It urged the international community to join efforts to promote tolerance and peaceful coexistence.
Key findings of Jenkins report
- Founder of the Muslim Brotherhood, Hassan al Banna, "accepted the political utility of violence"
- Views of key Muslim Brotherhood ideologue, Sayyid Qutb, have “consistently been understood” as permitting “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” and “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
- Muslim Brotherhood at all levels has repeatedly defended Hamas attacks against Israel, including the use of suicide bombers and the killing of civilians.
- Laying out the report in the House of Commons, David Cameron told MPs: "The main findings of the review support the conclusion that membership of, association with, or influence by the Muslim Brotherhood should be considered as a possible indicator of extremism."
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
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It Was Just an Accident
Director: Jafar Panahi
Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr
Rating: 4/5
MO
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England v West Indies
England squad for the first Test Cook, Stoneman, Westley, Root (captain), Malan, Stokes, Bairstow, Moeen, Roland-Jones, Broad, Anderson, Woakes, Crane
Fixtures
1st Test Aug 17-21, Edgbaston
2nd Test Aug 25-29, Headingley
3rd Test Sep 7-11, Lord's
How green is the expo nursery?
Some 400,000 shrubs and 13,000 trees in the on-site nursery
An additional 450,000 shrubs and 4,000 trees to be delivered in the months leading up to the expo
Ghaf, date palm, acacia arabica, acacia tortilis, vitex or sage, techoma and the salvadora are just some heat tolerant native plants in the nursery
Approximately 340 species of shrubs and trees selected for diverse landscape
The nursery team works exclusively with organic fertilisers and pesticides
All shrubs and trees supplied by Dubai Municipality
Most sourced from farms, nurseries across the country
Plants and trees are re-potted when they arrive at nursery to give them room to grow
Some mature trees are in open areas or planted within the expo site
Green waste is recycled as compost
Treated sewage effluent supplied by Dubai Municipality is used to meet the majority of the nursery’s irrigation needs
Construction workforce peaked at 40,000 workers
About 65,000 people have signed up to volunteer
Main themes of expo is ‘Connecting Minds, Creating the Future’ and three subthemes of opportunity, mobility and sustainability.
Expo 2020 Dubai to open in October 2020 and run for six months
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 390bhp
Torque: 400Nm
Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579
The%20specs
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SHAITTAN
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Company name: Farmin
Date started: March 2019
Founder: Dr Ali Al Hammadi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: AgriTech
Initial investment: None to date
Partners/Incubators: UAE Space Agency/Krypto Labs
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
The%20specs
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Dubai World Cup Carnival card:
6.30pm: Handicap (Turf) | US$175,000 | 2,410 metres
7.05pm: UAE 1000 Guineas Trial Conditions (Dirt) | $100,000 | 1,400m
7.40pm: Handicap (T) | $145,000 | 1,000m
8.15pm: Dubawi Stakes Group 3 (D) | $200,000 | 1,200m
8.50pm: Singspiel Stakes Group 3 (T) | $200,000 | 1,800m
9.25pm: Handicap (T) | $175,000 | 1,400m
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20OneOrder%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20March%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tamer%20Amer%20and%20Karim%20Maurice%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cairo%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E82%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Series%20A%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: 3.0L twin-turbo V6
Gearbox: 10-speed automatic
Power: 405hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 562Nm at 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.2L/100km
Price: From Dh292,845 (Reserve); from Dh320,145 (Presidential)
On sale: Now
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
Titanium Escrow profile
Started: December 2016
Founder: Ibrahim Kamalmaz
Based: UAE
Sector: Finance / legal
Size: 3 employees, pre-revenue
Stage: Early stage
Investors: Founder's friends and Family
No%20Windmills%20in%20Basra
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Diaa%20Jubaili%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20180%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPublisher%3A%20Deep%20Vellum%20Publishing%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
$1,000 award for 1,000 days on madrasa portal
Daily cash awards of $1,000 dollars will sweeten the Madrasa e-learning project by tempting more pupils to an education portal to deepen their understanding of math and sciences.
School children are required to watch an educational video each day and answer a question related to it. They then enter into a raffle draw for the $1,000 prize.
“We are targeting everyone who wants to learn. This will be $1,000 for 1,000 days so there will be a winner every day for 1,000 days,” said Sara Al Nuaimi, project manager of the Madrasa e-learning platform that was launched on Tuesday by the Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, to reach Arab pupils from kindergarten to grade 12 with educational videos.
“The objective of the Madrasa is to become the number one reference for all Arab students in the world. The 5,000 videos we have online is just the beginning, we have big ambitions. Today in the Arab world there are 50 million students. We want to reach everyone who is willing to learn.”
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
At Eternity’s Gate
Director: Julian Schnabel
Starring: Willem Dafoe, Oscar Isaacs, Mads Mikkelsen
Three stars
Who are the Soroptimists?
The first Soroptimists club was founded in Oakland, California in 1921. The name comes from the Latin word soror which means sister, combined with optima, meaning the best.
The organisation said its name is best interpreted as ‘the best for women’.
Since then the group has grown exponentially around the world and is officially affiliated with the United Nations. The organisation also counts Queen Mathilde of Belgium among its ranks.
The biog
Family: He is the youngest of five brothers, of whom two are dentists.
Celebrities he worked on: Fabio Canavaro, Lojain Omran, RedOne, Saber Al Rabai.
Where he works: Liberty Dental Clinic
Key products and UAE prices
iPhone XS
With a 5.8-inch screen, it will be an advance version of the iPhone X. It will be dual sim and comes with better battery life, a faster processor and better camera. A new gold colour will be available.
Price: Dh4,229
iPhone XS Max
It is expected to be a grander version of the iPhone X with a 6.5-inch screen; an inch bigger than the screen of the iPhone 8 Plus.
Price: Dh4,649
iPhone XR
A low-cost version of the iPhone X with a 6.1-inch screen, it is expected to attract mass attention. According to industry experts, it is likely to have aluminium edges instead of stainless steel.
Price: Dh3,179
Apple Watch Series 4
More comprehensive health device with edge-to-edge displays that are more than 30 per cent bigger than displays on current models.
the pledge
I pledge to uphold the duty of tolerance
I pledge to take a first stand against hate and injustice
I pledge to respect and accept people whose abilities, beliefs and culture are different from my own
I pledge to wish for others what I wish for myself
I pledge to live in harmony with my community
I pledge to always be open to dialogue and forgiveness
I pledge to do my part to create peace for all
I pledge to exercise benevolence and choose kindness in all my dealings with my community
I pledge to always stand up for these values: Zayed's values for tolerance and human fraternity
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Director: Jon Watts
Stars: Tom Holland, Zendaya, Jacob Batalon
Rating:*****
UAE tour of Zimbabwe
All matches in Bulawayo
Friday, Sept 26 – UAE won by 36 runs
Sunday, Sept 28 – Second ODI
Tuesday, Sept 30 – Third ODI
Thursday, Oct 2 – Fourth ODI
Sunday, Oct 5 – First T20I
Monday, Oct 6 – Second T20I
SPECS
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Fight card
- Aliu Bamidele Lasisi (Nigeria) beat Artid Vamrungauea (Thailand) POINTS
- Julaidah Abdulfatah (Saudi Arabia) beat Martin Kabrhel (Czech Rep) POINTS
- Kem Ljungquist (Denmark) beat Mourad Omar (Egypt) TKO
- Michael Lawal (UK) beat Tamas Kozma (Hungary) KO
- Zuhayr Al Qahtani (Saudi Arabia) beat Mohammed Mahmoud (UK) POINTS
- Darren Surtees (UK) beat Kane Baker (UK) KO
- Chris Eubank Jr (UK) beat JJ McDonagh (Ireland) TKO
- Callum Smith (UK) beat George Groves (UK) KO
About Seez
Company name/date started: Seez, set up in September 2015 and the app was released in August 2017
Founder/CEO name(s): Tarek Kabrit, co-founder and chief executive, and Andrew Kabrit, co-founder and chief operating officer
Based in: Dubai, with operations also in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Lebanon
Sector: Search engine for car buying, selling and leasing
Size: (employees/revenue): 11; undisclosed
Stage of funding: $1.8 million in seed funding; followed by another $1.5m bridge round - in the process of closing Series A
Investors: Wamda Capital, B&Y and Phoenician Funds
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The Africa Institute 101
Housed on the same site as the original Africa Hall, which first hosted an Arab-African Symposium in 1976, the newly renovated building will be home to a think tank and postgraduate studies hub (it will offer master’s and PhD programmes). The centre will focus on both the historical and contemporary links between Africa and the Gulf, and will serve as a meeting place for conferences, symposia, lectures, film screenings, plays, musical performances and more. In fact, today it is hosting a symposium – 5-plus-1: Rethinking Abstraction that will look at the six decades of Frank Bowling’s career, as well as those of his contemporaries that invested social, cultural and personal meaning into abstraction.
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