The International Monetary Fund said better economic data in the third quarter of last year, the easing of inflation and the reopening of China point to resilience in the global economy, prompting it to marginally raise its growth forecast for 2023, but more work needs to be done for a full recovery to take place.
The fund raised its global economic growth estimate for this year by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9 per cent from its October forecast, a slowdown from the 3.4 per cent expansion in 2022 and below the historical average of 3.8 per cent over the 2000-2019 period.
The global economy is projected to rebound to 3.1 per cent in 2024, the IMF said in its World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.
Despite the revision, the Washington-based lender warned that the financial environment remains “fragile” as the fight against inflation is not over and will continue to weigh on the global economy, along with Russia's war in Ukraine.
A depreciating US dollar, coupled with global monetary policy tightening, is starting to cool demand and inflation, but the full impact is unlikely to be realised before 2024, the IMF said.
After hitting 8.8 per cent in 2022, global inflation is expected to fall to 6.6 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024, still above pre-pandemic levels of about 3.5 per cent, it said. About 84 per cent of countries are expected to have lower headline inflation in 2023 than in 2022.
Advanced economies will have a more pronounced slowdown and are set to decline to 1.2 per cent in 2023 and 1.4 per cent in 2024, from growth of 2.7 per cent last year and 5.2 per cent in 2021. Nine in 10 advanced economies are likely to decelerate this year.
The US, the biggest of the group, is forecast to expand 1.4 per cent in 2023, instead of a previous 1.6 per cent estimate, down from 2 per cent last year and 5.7 per cent in 2021.
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times last year to curb inflation that hit a four-decade high.
It is meeting this week and is set to raise interest rates by a more moderate 25 basis points after a series of 75 bps and 50 bps increases last year, as prices have started to ease in the world's largest economy.
The euro area, which includes 19 EU countries that use the euro as their primary currency, has had a mild winter and the impact of an energy crisis as a result of the face-off with Russia over its war in Ukraine has been more muted.
The euro area is forecast to grow 0.7 per cent in 2023, slightly above the earlier estimate of 0.5 per cent, following a 3.5 per cent expansion in 2022 and 5.2 per cent growth in 2021 — due to the European Central Bank tightening monetary policy and the increase in the price of its imported energy.
Germany, Europe's largest economy, is set to grow 0.1 per cent in 2023 instead of an earlier projected contraction of 0.3 per cent. Its economy grew by 1.9 per cent last year and 2.6 per cent in 2021.
France, the euro area's second-largest economy, is forecast to grow 0.7 per cent in 2023 following a 2.6 per cent expansion in 2022, and growth of 6.8 per cent in 2021.
Japan, the world's third-largest economy, which removed restrictions on foreign visitors, is projected to grow 1.8 per cent in 2023 compared with a previous 1.6 per cent estimate, after growing about 1.4 per cent in 2022.
The UK, which slipped a notch to become the world's sixth-largest economy due to its economic crisis last year that drove the pound to its lowest level against the US dollar, is expected to contract 0.6 per cent in 2023 instead of a previous 0.3 per cent expansion projection. Its economy is estimated to have grown 4.1 per cent in 2022.
Emerging market and developing economies are projected to grow 4 per cent in 2023, up from 3.9 per cent in 2022, with China's output accelerating by 5.2 per cent compared with a previous 4.4 per cent forecast, as it benefits from a full reopening this year.
China, the world's second-largest economy, is estimated to have grown by 3 per cent in 2022.
India, which overtook the UK to become the world's fifth-largest economy in 2022, is expected to outpace the world's economies with a 6.1 per cent expansion in 2023 after growing 6.8 per cent last year. Its growth in 2024 is forecast at 6.8 per cent.
India and China will account for half of global growth this year, compared with only a tenth for the US and euro area combined, the IMF said.
The Middle East and Central Asia are forecast to grow by 3.2 per cent following a 5.3 per cent expansion in 2022 and then pick up to 3.7 per cent in 2024.
Saudi Arabia, the Arab world’s largest economy, is forecast to grow 2.6 per cent this year following an 8.7 per cent expansion in 2022, and to accelerate 3.4 per cent in 2024.
The kingdom, the world's largest exporter of oil, benefitted from the rally in crude prices last year after Brent, the global benchmark for two thirds of the world's oil, rose by about 10 per cent, following a 50 per cent gain in 2021.
Brent soared to a 14-year high of close to $140 a barrel in March last year after the start of Russia’s military offensive in Ukraine, but sluggish economic growth in China and the strong possibility of a recession in several economies weighed on the market and brought prices back down in 2022.
In 2023, oil prices are projected to fall by about 16 per cent, while nonfuel commodity prices are expected, on average, to fall by 6.3 per cent, the fund said. The average assumed price of oil based on futures markets as of November 29, 2022 is $81.13 in 2023 and $75.36 in 2024, the fund said.
World trade growth is expected to decline this year to 2.4 per cent, despite an easing of supply bottlenecks, before rising to 3.4 per cent in 2024.
“The inflation news is encouraging, but the battle is far from won,” said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
“Monetary policy has started to bite, with a slowdown in new home construction in many countries. Yet, inflation-adjusted interest rates remain low or even negative in the euro area and other economies, and there is significant uncertainty about both the speed and effectiveness of monetary tightening in many countries.”
Multilateral co-operation needs to be shored up amid economic fragmentation, Mr Gourinchas said.
“We must buttress multilateral co-operation, especially on fundamental areas of common interest such as international trade, expanding the global financial safety net, public health preparedness and the climate transition,” he said.
“This time around, the global economic outlook hasn’t worsened. That’s good news, but not enough. The road back to a full recovery, with sustainable growth, stable prices, and progress for all, is only starting.”
The currency conundrum
Russ Mould, investment director at online trading platform AJ Bell, says almost every major currency has challenges right now. “The US has a huge budget deficit, the euro faces political friction and poor growth, sterling is bogged down by Brexit, China’s renminbi is hit by debt fears while slowing Chinese growth is hurting commodity exporters like Australia and Canada.”
Most countries now actively want a weak currency to make their exports more competitive. “China seems happy to let the renminbi drift lower, the Swiss are still running quantitative easing at full tilt and central bankers everywhere are actively talking down their currencies or offering only limited support," says Mr Mould.
This is a race to the bottom, and everybody wants to be a winner.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Nick's journey in numbers
Countries so far: 85
Flights: 149
Steps: 3.78 million
Calories: 220,000
Floors climbed: 2,000
Donations: GPB37,300
Prostate checks: 5
Blisters: 15
Bumps on the head: 2
Dog bites: 1
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
MATCH INFO
England 19 (Try: Tuilagi; Cons: Farrell; Pens: Ford (4)
New Zealand 7 (Try: Savea; Con: Mo'unga)
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
More from UAE Human Development Report:
England World Cup squad
Eoin Morgan (capt), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonny Bairstow, Jos Buttler (wkt), Tom Curran, Liam Dawson, Liam Plunkett, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Jason Roy, Ben Stokes, James Vince, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood
World Cup final
Who: France v Croatia
When: Sunday, July 15, 7pm (UAE)
TV: Game will be shown live on BeIN Sports for viewers in the Mena region
The%20specs
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dual%20synchronous%20electric%20motors%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E660hp%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E1%2C100Nm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESingle-speed%20automatic%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETouring%20range%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E488km-560km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh850%2C000%20(estimate)%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOctober%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
Results for Stage 2
Stage 2 Yas Island to Abu Dhabi, 184 km, Road race
Overall leader: Primoz Roglic SLO (Team Jumbo - Visma)
Stage winners: 1. Fernando Gaviria COL (UAE Team Emirates) 2. Elia Viviani ITA (Deceuninck - Quick-Step) 3. Caleb Ewan AUS (Lotto - Soudal)
Set-jetting on the Emerald Isle
Other shows filmed in Ireland include: Vikings (County Wicklow), The Fall (Belfast), Line of Duty (Belfast), Penny Dreadful (Dublin), Ripper Street (Dublin), Krypton (Belfast)
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Biography
Favourite book: Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance
Holiday choice: Anything Disney-related
Proudest achievement: Receiving a presidential award for foreign services.
Family: Wife and three children.
Like motto: You always get what you ask for, the universe listens.
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
WOMAN AND CHILD
Director: Saeed Roustaee
Starring: Parinaz Izadyar, Payman Maadi
Rating: 4/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Raha%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kuwait%2FSaudi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Tech%20Logistics%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2414%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Soor%20Capital%2C%20eWTP%20Arabia%20Capital%2C%20Aujan%20Enterprises%2C%20Nox%20Management%2C%20Cedar%20Mundi%20Ventures%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20166%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
Five famous companies founded by teens
There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:
- Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate.
- Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc.
- Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway.
- Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
- Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
Company Fact Box
Company name/date started: Abwaab Technologies / September 2019
Founders: Hamdi Tabbaa, co-founder and CEO. Hussein Alsarabi, co-founder and CTO
Based: Amman, Jordan
Sector: Education Technology
Size (employees/revenue): Total team size: 65. Full-time employees: 25. Revenue undisclosed
Stage: early-stage startup
Investors: Adam Tech Ventures, Endure Capital, Equitrust, the World Bank-backed Innovative Startups SMEs Fund, a London investment fund, a number of former and current executives from Uber and Netflix, among others.
How to apply for a drone permit
- Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
- Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
- Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
- Submit their request
What are the regulations?
- Fly it within visual line of sight
- Never over populated areas
- Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
- Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
- Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
- Should have a live feed of the drone flight
- Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Crazy Rich Asians
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Constance Wu, Henry Golding, Michelle Yeon, Gemma Chan
Four stars
MORE ON THE US DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Fringe@Four Line-up
October 1 - Phil Nichol (stand-up comedy)
October 29 - Mandy Knight (stand-up comedy)
November 5 - Sinatra Raw (Fringe theatre)
November 8 - Imah Dumagay & Sundeep Fernandes (stand-up comedy)
November 13 - Gordon Southern (stand-up comedy)
November 22 - In Loyal Company (Fringe theatre)
November 29 - Peter Searles (comedy / theatre)
December 5 - Sinatra’s Christmas Under The Stars (music / dinner show)
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The Sheikh Zayed Future Energy Prize
This year’s winners of the US$4 million Sheikh Zayed Future Energy Prize will be recognised and rewarded in Abu Dhabi on January 15 as part of Abu Dhabi Sustainable Week, which runs in the capital from January 13 to 20.
From solutions to life-changing technologies, the aim is to discover innovative breakthroughs to create a new and sustainable energy future.
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20myZoi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202021%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Syed%20Ali%2C%20Christian%20Buchholz%2C%20Shanawaz%20Rouf%2C%20Arsalan%20Siddiqui%2C%20Nabid%20Hassan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2037%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Initial%20undisclosed%20funding%20from%20SC%20Ventures%3B%20second%20round%20of%20funding%20totalling%20%2414%20million%20from%20a%20consortium%20of%20SBI%2C%20a%20Japanese%20VC%20firm%2C%20and%20SC%20Venture%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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The specs: 2019 BMW X4
Price, base / as tested: Dh276,675 / Dh346,800
Engine: 3.0-litre turbocharged in-line six-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 354hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 1,550rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.0L / 100km
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
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