Global deal making is entering an arid season as raging inflation and a stock market rout curb the thirst of many corporate boards to expand through acquisitions.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February and fears that an economic recession is looming dealt a blow to merger and acquisition activity in the second quarter.
The value of announced deals dropped 25.5 per cent year-on-year to $1 trillion, according to Dealogic data.
“Companies are standing back from M&A in the short term as they are more focused on the impact of a recession on their business. The timing for deal making will come but I don't think it's quite there yet,” said Alison Harding-Jones, Citigroup's M&A head for Europe, Middle East and Africa.
M&A activity in the US plunged 40 per cent to $456 billion in the second quarter, while Asia Pacific was down 10 per cent, Dealogic data showed.
Europe was the only region where M&A activity did not plummet. Activity was up 6.5 per cent in the quarter, largely driven by a frenzy of private equity deals, including a €58bn ($61.07bn) takeover bid for Italian infrastructure group Atlantia.
“We are nervous about the back half of the year but transactions are still happening,” said Mark Shafir, global co-head of M&A at Citigroup.
With stock markets facing persistent turmoil, boardrooms are wary of making expensive bets.
“We are unlikely to see a large number of megadeals and buyouts getting done over the next couple of quarters. M&A is hard to do when companies are trading at a 52-week low,” said Marc Cooper, chief executive of US advisory firm Solomon Partners.
Cross-border transaction volume dropped 25.5 per cent in the first six months of the year. A traditional flurry of US investments in Europe did not occur after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
“When you think about the psychology of executives and their level of confidence to make a leap across borders, you need to take into account the level of uncertainty in the world and how that impacts timing,” said Andre Kelleners, head of EMEA M&A at Goldman Sachs.
Acquisition financing has become more expensive for companies as central banks have increased interest rates to fight inflation.
Even those that have the cash to undertake a deal or are using their shares as currency find it hard to agree on price in choppy markets.
“Stock market volatility is a big headwind to strategic M&A. When you have stock market volatility, it's tough to have value conversations and makes it hard to use stock as currency,” said Damien Zoubek, co-head of US corporate practice and M&A at Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer.
Companies are standing back from M&A in the short term as they are more focused on the impact of a recession on their business. The timing for dealmaking will come but I don't think it's quite there yet
Alison Harding-Jones,
Citigroup's M&A head for EMEA
In Europe, sharp falls in the value of the euro and the pound made companies vulnerable to opportunistic overtures by private equity investors.
“Market dislocation offers a window of opportunity to private equity funds as valuations are coming down,” said Umberto Giacometti, co-head of Nomura's EMEA financial sponsors group.
“There is lots of screening work under way on listed companies for both take-private deals and stake acquisitions in public companies. But without a price adjustment, activity cannot properly resume,” Mr Giacometti said.
He predicted the average size of private-equity deals will shrink as banks close the taps on financing and private credit funds become wary of signing big checks.
Going forward, deal makers expect cross-border transactions between the US and Europe to pick up eventually, on the back of a strong dollar and a widening gap between the valuation of US and European companies.
“With a slightly elevated level of visibility than what we had earlier this year, you could expect capital flows to resume and deal activity to pick up, including on the financing side,” said Goldman's Mr Kelleners.
But caution prevails as companies are still seeking to sever their ties with Russia or limit their exposure to the region.
“Clients are increasingly looking inward rather than outward,” said Citigroup's Ms Harding-Jones.
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
La Mer lowdown
La Mer beach is open from 10am until midnight, daily, and is located in Jumeirah 1, well after Kite Beach. Some restaurants, like Cupagahwa, are open from 8am for breakfast; most others start at noon. At the time of writing, we noticed that signs for Vicolo, an Italian eatery, and Kaftan, a Turkish restaurant, indicated that these two restaurants will be open soon, most likely this month. Parking is available, as well as a Dh100 all-day valet option or a Dh50 valet service if you’re just stopping by for a few hours.
NO OTHER LAND
Director: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal
Stars: Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs: 2018 Infiniti QX80
Price: base / as tested: Dh335,000
Engine: 5.6-litre V8
Gearbox: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 400hp @ 5,800rpm
Torque: 560Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 12.1L / 100km
Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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The bio
Studied up to grade 12 in Vatanappally, a village in India’s southern Thrissur district
Was a middle distance state athletics champion in school
Enjoys driving to Fujairah and Ras Al Khaimah with family
His dream is to continue working as a social worker and help people
Has seven diaries in which he has jotted down notes about his work and money he earned
Keeps the diaries in his car to remember his journey in the Emirates
Asia Cup Qualifier
Venue: Kuala Lumpur
Result: Winners play at Asia Cup in Dubai and Abu Dhabi in September
Fixtures:
Wed Aug 29: Malaysia v Hong Kong, Nepal v Oman, UAE v Singapore
Thu Aug 30: UAE v Nepal, Hong Kong v Singapore, Malaysia v Oman
Sat Sep 1: UAE v Hong Kong, Oman v Singapore, Malaysia v Nepal
Sun Sep 2: Hong Kong v Oman, Malaysia v UAE, Nepal v Singapore
Tue Sep 4: Malaysia v Singapore, UAE v Oman, Nepal v Hong Kong
Thu Sep 6: Final
Asia Cup
Venue: Dubai and Abu Dhabi
Schedule: Sep 15-28
Teams: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, plus the winner of the Qualifier
Gender equality in the workplace still 200 years away
It will take centuries to achieve gender parity in workplaces around the globe, according to a December report from the World Economic Forum.
The WEF study said there had been some improvements in wage equality in 2018 compared to 2017, when the global gender gap widened for the first time in a decade.
But it warned that these were offset by declining representation of women in politics, coupled with greater inequality in their access to health and education.
At current rates, the global gender gap across a range of areas will not close for another 108 years, while it is expected to take 202 years to close the workplace gap, WEF found.
The Geneva-based organisation's annual report tracked disparities between the sexes in 149 countries across four areas: education, health, economic opportunity and political empowerment.
After years of advances in education, health and political representation, women registered setbacks in all three areas this year, WEF said.
Only in the area of economic opportunity did the gender gap narrow somewhat, although there is not much to celebrate, with the global wage gap narrowing to nearly 51 per cent.
And the number of women in leadership roles has risen to 34 per cent globally, WEF said.
At the same time, the report showed there are now proportionately fewer women than men participating in the workforce, suggesting that automation is having a disproportionate impact on jobs traditionally performed by women.
And women are significantly under-represented in growing areas of employment that require science, technology, engineering and mathematics skills, WEF said.
* Agence France Presse
WHY%20AAYAN%20IS%20'PERFECT%20EXAMPLE'
%3Cp%3EDavid%20White%20might%20be%20new%20to%20the%20country%2C%20but%20he%20has%20clearly%20already%20built%20up%20an%20affinity%20with%20the%20place.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EAfter%20the%20UAE%20shocked%20Pakistan%20in%20the%20semi-final%20of%20the%20Under%2019%20Asia%20Cup%20last%20month%2C%20White%20was%20hugged%20on%20the%20field%20by%20Aayan%20Khan%2C%20the%20team%E2%80%99s%20captain.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3EWhite%20suggests%20that%20was%20more%20a%20sign%20of%20Aayan%E2%80%99s%20amiability%20than%20anything%20else.%20But%20he%20believes%20the%20young%20all-rounder%2C%20who%20was%20part%20of%20the%20winning%20Gulf%20Giants%20team%20last%20year%2C%20is%20just%20the%20sort%20of%20player%20the%20country%20should%20be%20seeking%20to%20produce%20via%20the%20ILT20.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20is%20a%20delightful%20young%20man%2C%E2%80%9D%20White%20said.%20%E2%80%9CHe%20played%20in%20the%20competition%20last%20year%20at%2017%2C%20and%20look%20at%20his%20development%20from%20there%20till%20now%2C%20and%20where%20he%20is%20representing%20the%20UAE.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CHe%20was%20influential%20in%20the%20U19%20team%20which%20beat%20Pakistan.%20He%20is%20the%20perfect%20example%20of%20what%20we%20are%20all%20trying%20to%20achieve%20here.%3Cbr%3E%3Cbr%3E%E2%80%9CIt%20is%20about%20the%20development%20of%20players%20who%20are%20going%20to%20represent%20the%20UAE%20and%20go%20on%20to%20help%20make%20UAE%20a%20force%20in%20world%20cricket.%E2%80%9D%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: seven-speed
Power: 620bhp
Torque: 760Nm
Price: Dh898,000
On sale: now
Tamkeen's offering
- Option 1: 70% in year 1, 50% in year 2, 30% in year 3
- Option 2: 50% across three years
- Option 3: 30% across five years
RESULTS - ELITE MEN
1. Henri Schoeman (RSA) 57:03
2. Mario Mola (ESP) 57:09
3. Vincent Luis (FRA) 57:25
4. Leo Bergere (FRA)57:34
5. Jacob Birtwhistle (AUS) 57:40
6. Joao Silva (POR) 57:45
7. Jonathan Brownlee (GBR) 57:56
8. Adrien Briffod (SUI) 57:57
9. Gustav Iden (NOR) 57:58
10. Richard Murray (RSA) 57:59
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Groom and Two Brides
Director: Elie Semaan
Starring: Abdullah Boushehri, Laila Abdallah, Lulwa Almulla
Rating: 3/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cyl, 48V hybrid
Transmission: eight-speed automatic
Power: 325bhp
Torque: 450Nm
Price: Dh359,000
On sale: now
