The probability of the world economy succumbing to a recession is nearing 50 per cent as central banks tighten monetary policy and demand for goods weakens, according to economists at Citigroup.
Supply shocks continue to push up inflation and drive down growth, while central banks are now increasing interest rates vigorously and consumer demand for goods is softening, the economists led by Nathan Sheets said in a report on Wednesday.
“The experience of history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth and we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50 per cent,” the economists wrote.
“Central banks may yet engineer the soft — or “softish” — landings embodies in their forecasts (and in ours), but this will require supply shocks to ebb and demand to remain resilient.”
Citigroup now sees the world economy growing 3 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2023. Its economists said if a recession did occur it was likely to be a “garden variety”, one in which unemployment rises several percentage points and output experiences a couple of weak quarters.
Deutsche Bank's chief executive Christian Sewing, too, warned the global economy may be headed for a recession as central banks step up efforts to curb inflation, joining a growing chorus of executives and policymakers who are painting a pessimistic picture.
Speaking at the Future of Finance summit in Frankfurt on Wednesday, Mr Sewing said the global economy is buckling under multiple strains, from supply chain issues in China to rising food prices, particularly in the poorest countries.
“At least I would say we have 50 per cent likelihood of a recession globally,” Mr Sewing said.
In the US and Europe, “the likelihood of a recession coming in the second half of 2023, while at the same time the interest rates go up, is obviously up versus the forecasts we had before the war broke out” in Ukraine.
Earlier this week, delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla chief executive Elon Musk and economist Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading towards a recession.
Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon, who runs JPMorgan Chase, told investors in early June to prepare for an economic “hurricane” as the economy struggles against an unprecedented combination of challenges.
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Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
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Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
Tomorrow 2021
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Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
The Orwell Prize for Political Writing
Twelve books were longlisted for The Orwell Prize for Political Writing. The non-fiction works cover various themes from education, gender bias, and the environment to surveillance and political power. Some of the books that made it to the non-fiction longlist include:
- Appeasing Hitler: Chamberlain, Churchill and the Road to War by Tim Bouverie
- Some Kids I Taught and What They Taught Me by Kate Clanchy
- Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men by Caroline Criado Perez
- Follow Me, Akhi: The Online World of British Muslims by Hussein Kesvani
- Guest House for Young Widows: Among the Women of ISIS by Azadeh Moaveni
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The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part one: how cars came to the UAE
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
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Tomorrow 2021
Zayed Sustainability Prize
The specs
Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors
Power: Combined output 920hp
Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic
Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km
On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025
Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000
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Normal People
Sally Rooney, Faber & Faber
The burning issue
The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
Read part four: an affection for classic cars lives on
Read part three: the age of the electric vehicle begins
Read part two: how climate change drove the race for an alternative
How to wear a kandura
Dos
- Wear the right fabric for the right season and occasion
- Always ask for the dress code if you don’t know
- Wear a white kandura, white ghutra / shemagh (headwear) and black shoes for work
- Wear 100 per cent cotton under the kandura as most fabrics are polyester
Don’ts
- Wear hamdania for work, always wear a ghutra and agal
- Buy a kandura only based on how it feels; ask questions about the fabric and understand what you are buying
The Scale for Clinical Actionability of Molecular Targets
Specs
Engine: 51.5kW electric motor
Range: 400km
Power: 134bhp
Torque: 175Nm
Price: From Dh98,800
Available: Now
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Moon Music
Artist: Coldplay
Label: Parlophone/Atlantic
Number of tracks: 10
Rating: 3/5
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?
1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull
2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight
3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge
4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own
5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed
Sholto Byrnes on Myanmar politics
Company name: Play:Date
Launched: March 2017 on UAE Mother’s Day
Founder: Shamim Kassibawi
Based: Dubai with operations in the UAE and US
Sector: Tech
Size: 20 employees
Stage of funding: Seed
Investors: Three founders (two silent co-founders) and one venture capital fund
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
COMPANY%20PROFILE
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
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Heavily-sugared soft drinks slip through the tax net
Some popular drinks with high levels of sugar and caffeine have slipped through the fizz drink tax loophole, as they are not carbonated or classed as an energy drink.
Arizona Iced Tea with lemon is one of those beverages, with one 240 millilitre serving offering up 23 grams of sugar - about six teaspoons.
A 680ml can of Arizona Iced Tea costs just Dh6.
Most sports drinks sold in supermarkets were found to contain, on average, five teaspoons of sugar in a 500ml bottle.
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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
Matthew Levitt: Iran retains its ability to launch terror attacks
Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
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Faf du Plessis (captain), Hashim Amla, Temba Bavuma, Quinton de Kock (wicketkeeper), Theunis de Bruyn, AB de Villiers, Dean Elgar, Heinrich Klaasen (wicketkeeper), Keshav Maharaj, Aiden Markram, Morne Morkel, Wiaan Mulder, Lungi Ngidi, Vernon Philander and Kagiso Rabada.
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Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
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Jack Moore: Why the assassination is such a monumental gamble
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Justin Thomas: Challenge the notion that 'men are from Mars, women are from Venus'
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Mina Al Oraibi: Air strike casts a long shadow over the decade ahead
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Damien McElroy: A CEO tasked with spreading Iran's influence
Hussein Ibish: Trump's order on solid constitutional ground
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- Alistair Burt: Despite Brexit, Britain can remain a world power
- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
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Fixtures
Thursday, Nov 9 - 9.30am, ICC Academy, Dubai
Saturday, Nov 11 – 9.30am, ICC Academy, Dubai
Monday, Nov 13 – 2pm, Dubai International Stadium
Thursday, Nov 16 – 2pm, ICC Academy, Dubai
Saturday, Nov 18 – 9.30am, ICC Academy, Dubai
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Wonka
Start-up hopes to end Japan's love affair with cash
Across most of Asia, people pay for taxi rides, restaurant meals and merchandise with smartphone-readable barcodes — except in Japan, where cash still rules. Now, as the country’s biggest web companies race to dominate the payments market, one Tokyo-based startup says it has a fighting chance to win with its QR app.
Origami had a head start when it introduced a QR-code payment service in late 2015 and has since signed up fast-food chain KFC, Tokyo’s largest cab company Nihon Kotsu and convenience store operator Lawson. The company raised $66 million in September to expand nationwide and plans to more than double its staff of about 100 employees, says founder Yoshiki Yasui.
Origami is betting that stores, which until now relied on direct mail and email newsletters, will pay for the ability to reach customers on their smartphones. For example, a hair salon using Origami’s payment app would be able to send a message to past customers with a coupon for their next haircut.
Quick Response codes, the dotted squares that can be read by smartphone cameras, were invented in the 1990s by a unit of Toyota Motor to track automotive parts. But when the Japanese pioneered digital payments almost two decades ago with contactless cards for train fares, they chose the so-called near-field communications technology. The high cost of rolling out NFC payments, convenient ATMs and a culture where lost wallets are often returned have all been cited as reasons why cash remains king in the archipelago. In China, however, QR codes dominate.
Cashless payments, which includes credit cards, accounted for just 20 per cent of total consumer spending in Japan during 2016, compared with 60 per cent in China and 89 per cent in South Korea, according to a report by the Bank of Japan.
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- Con Coughlin: Choice of the British people will be vindicated
- Sam Williams: Departure is influenced by its sense of place
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• UAE's monumental and risky Mars Mission to inspire future generations, says minister
• Could the UAE drive India's economy?
• News has a bright future and the UAE is at the heart of it
• Architecture is over - here's cybertecture
• The National announces Future of News journalism competition
• Round up: Experts share their visions of the world to come
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The specs: 2018 Nissan Altima
Price, base / as tested: Dh78,000 / Dh97,650
Engine: 2.5-litre in-line four-cylinder
Power: 182hp @ 6,000rpm
Torque: 244Nm @ 4,000rpm
Transmission: Continuously variable tranmission
Fuel consumption, combined: 7.6L / 100km
Ferrari 12Cilindri specs
Engine: naturally aspirated 6.5-liter V12
Power: 819hp
Torque: 678Nm at 7,250rpm
Price: From Dh1,700,000
Available: Now
The five pillars of Islam
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5.
Iraq politics
Read more: US calls for 'moderate, nationalist' government ahead of Iraqi parliament opening
The story so far: Moqtada Al Sadr retains victory in Iraq election recount
Editorial: Iraq's sovereignty must be protected
