The probability of the world economy succumbing to a recession is nearing 50 per cent as central banks tighten monetary policy and demand for goods weakens, according to economists at Citigroup.
Supply shocks continue to push up inflation and drive down growth, while central banks are now increasing interest rates vigorously and consumer demand for goods is softening, the economists led by Nathan Sheets said in a report on Wednesday.
“The experience of history indicates that disinflation often carries meaningful costs for growth and we see the aggregate probability of recession as now approaching 50 per cent,” the economists wrote.
“Central banks may yet engineer the soft — or “softish” — landings embodies in their forecasts (and in ours), but this will require supply shocks to ebb and demand to remain resilient.”
Citigroup now sees the world economy growing 3 per cent this year and 2.8 per cent in 2023. Its economists said if a recession did occur it was likely to be a “garden variety”, one in which unemployment rises several percentage points and output experiences a couple of weak quarters.
Deutsche Bank's chief executive Christian Sewing, too, warned the global economy may be headed for a recession as central banks step up efforts to curb inflation, joining a growing chorus of executives and policymakers who are painting a pessimistic picture.
Speaking at the Future of Finance summit in Frankfurt on Wednesday, Mr Sewing said the global economy is buckling under multiple strains, from supply chain issues in China to rising food prices, particularly in the poorest countries.
“At least I would say we have 50 per cent likelihood of a recession globally,” Mr Sewing said.
In the US and Europe, “the likelihood of a recession coming in the second half of 2023, while at the same time the interest rates go up, is obviously up versus the forecasts we had before the war broke out” in Ukraine.
Earlier this week, delegates at the second annual Qatar Economic Forum, from Tesla chief executive Elon Musk and economist Nouriel Roubini to Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond and StanChart’s Bill Winters, warned the US was heading towards a recession.
Meanwhile, Jamie Dimon, who runs JPMorgan Chase, told investors in early June to prepare for an economic “hurricane” as the economy struggles against an unprecedented combination of challenges.
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
HERO%20CUP%20TEAMS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%3Cins%3EContinental%20Europe%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fins%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrancesco%20Molinari%20(c)%3Cbr%3EThomas%20Detry%3Cbr%3ERasmus%20Hojgaard%3Cbr%3EAdrian%20Meronk%3Cbr%3EGuido%20Migliozzi%3Cbr%3EAlex%20Noren%3Cbr%3EVictor%20Perez%3Cbr%3EThomas%20Pieters%3Cbr%3ESepp%20Straka%3Cbr%3EPlayer%20TBC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E%3Cins%3EGreat%20Britain%20%26amp%3B%20Ireland%3C%2Fins%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3ETommy%20Fleetwood%20(c)%3Cbr%3EEwen%20Ferguson%3Cbr%3ETyrrell%20Hatton%3Cbr%3EShane%20Lowry%3Cbr%3ERobert%20MacIntyre%3Cbr%3ESeamus%20Power%3Cbr%3ECallum%20Shinkwin%3Cbr%3EJordan%20Smith%3Cbr%3EMatt%20Wallace%3Cbr%3EPlayer%20TBC%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MATCH INFO
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
FROM%20THE%20ASHES
%3Cp%3EDirector%3A%20Khalid%20Fahad%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EStarring%3A%20Shaima%20Al%20Tayeb%2C%20Wafa%20Muhamad%2C%20Hamss%20Bandar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERating%3A%203%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
A%20MAN%20FROM%20MOTIHARI
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EAuthor%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAbdullah%20Khan%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPublisher%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPenguin%20Random%20House%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPages%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E304%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAvailable%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
PULITZER PRIZE 2020 WINNERS
JOURNALISM
Public Service
Anchorage Daily News in collaboration with ProPublica
Breaking News Reporting
Staff of The Courier-Journal, Louisville, Ky.
Investigative Reporting
Brian M. Rosenthal of The New York Times
Explanatory Reporting
Staff of The Washington Post
Local Reporting
Staff of The Baltimore Sun
National Reporting
T. Christian Miller, Megan Rose and Robert Faturechi of ProPublica
and
Dominic Gates, Steve Miletich, Mike Baker and Lewis Kamb of The Seattle Times
International Reporting
Staff of The New York Times
Feature Writing
Ben Taub of The New Yorker
Commentary
Nikole Hannah-Jones of The New York Times
Criticism
Christopher Knight of the Los Angeles Times
Editorial Writing
Jeffery Gerritt of the Palestine (Tx.) Herald-Press
Editorial Cartooning
Barry Blitt, contributor, The New Yorker
Breaking News Photography
Photography Staff of Reuters
Feature Photography
Channi Anand, Mukhtar Khan and Dar Yasin of the Associated Press
Audio Reporting
Staff of This American Life with Molly O’Toole of the Los Angeles Times and Emily Green, freelancer, Vice News for “The Out Crowd”
LETTERS AND DRAMA
Fiction
"The Nickel Boys" by Colson Whitehead (Doubleday)
Drama
"A Strange Loop" by Michael R. Jackson
History
"Sweet Taste of Liberty: A True Story of Slavery and Restitution in America" by W. Caleb McDaniel (Oxford University Press)
Biography
"Sontag: Her Life and Work" by Benjamin Moser (Ecco/HarperCollins)
Poetry
"The Tradition" by Jericho Brown (Copper Canyon Press)
General Nonfiction
"The Undying: Pain, Vulnerability, Mortality, Medicine, Art, Time, Dreams, Data, Exhaustion, Cancer, and Care" by Anne Boyer (Farrar, Straus and Giroux)
and
"The End of the Myth: From the Frontier to the Border Wall in the Mind of America" by Greg Grandin (Metropolitan Books)
Music
"The Central Park Five" by Anthony Davis, premiered by Long Beach Opera on June 15, 2019
Special Citation
Ida B. Wells
Six large-scale objects on show
- Concrete wall and windows from the now demolished Robin Hood Gardens housing estate in Poplar
- The 17th Century Agra Colonnade, from the bathhouse of the fort of Agra in India
- A stagecloth for The Ballet Russes that is 10m high – the largest Picasso in the world
- Frank Lloyd Wright’s 1930s Kaufmann Office
- A full-scale Frankfurt Kitchen designed by Margarete Schütte-Lihotzky, which transformed kitchen design in the 20th century
- Torrijos Palace dome
BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES
SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities
Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails
Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies
Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments
Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
How to help
Call the hotline on 0502955999 or send "thenational" to the following numbers:
2289 - Dh10
2252 - Dh50
6025 - Dh20
6027 - Dh100
6026 - Dh200
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Match info
Australia 580
Pakistan 240 and 335
Result: Australia win by an innings and five runs
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
