Food inflation poses a growing challenge to India’s economic recovery, economists say, with businesses and households feeling the pinch from higher prices amid the global supply-chain crunch and Russia-Ukraine crisis.
“Rising food inflation has become a cause of concern,” says Pradeep Multani, president of New Delhi-based trade and industry body PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
“Food prices account for nearly half the inflation basket in India, making them an important factor impacting households, businesses and, hence, the Indian economy.”
In March, retail inflation surged to a 17-month high to reach 6.95 per cent on the year, driven by a spike in food prices, government data showed. This is beyond the upper threshold of the Reserve Bank of India’s 6 per cent inflation target.
The rising cost of living comes amid India’s economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic and movement restrictions, which plunged the country into a historic recession in 2020.
India’s economy is consumption-driven and experts say that food inflation is hitting people’s spending power.
Food price inflation in India increased to 7.68 per cent in March, up from 5.85 per cent in the previous month, the government data showed. Meat and fish prices rose 9.63 per cent, year on year, last month, while vegetables rose 11.64 per cent, and cooking oils and fats surged 18.79 per cent.
“With higher food prices, consumers’ demand for consumer-durable goods and other non-essential commodities will be negatively impacted, since a higher proportion of household’s disposable income is spent on food and essential commodities,” says Mr Multani.
One factor driving up food prices is the rise in the cost fuel due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has squeezed crude oil supplies globally.
Steeper fuel costs are also adding to household expenses in India, where many people live below the poverty line. The number of citizens living on $2 or less a day in the country increased to 134 million from 78 million during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a March 2021 study by Washington-based think tank Pew Research Centre.
“It is a concern as due to the pandemic, the per capita earnings have gone down in many low-income families,” says Suseelendra Desai, dean of the School of Agricultural Sciences and Technology at NMIMS University in Shirpur.
“Though total food grain productivity has been at a record high, the increasing fuel prices have dampened the supply chain due to high transportation costs.”
Russia and Ukraine are major global suppliers of wheat, sunflower oil and fertilisers, and disruptions to these products have pushed up prices. In India, which sources most of its sunflower oil from Ukraine, the price of the commodity has doubled since the start of the war in February.
“The Ukraine-Russia war … has significantly contributed to the food price rise,” says Mr Desai. “Often, the markets also take advantage of the situation by rising the prices. Unforeseen damage in some crops has resulted in a sharp increase in commodity prices such as chillies, resulting in lifetime-high prices.”
Inflation risks due to the crisis in Ukraine prompted the World Bank on Wednesday to cut its economic growth forecast for India to 8 per cent in the current financial year, which began this month, down from an earlier projection of 8.7 per cent.
“High oil and food prices caused by the war in Ukraine will have a strong negative impact on people’s real incomes,” says Hartwig Schafer, vice president for South Asia at the World Bank.
“Governments need to carefully plan monetary and fiscal policies to counter external shocks and protect the vulnerable.”
Businesses in India are also feeling the impact.
“Rising inflation has taken a bigger bite in the food and beverage sector,” says Satvir Singh, co-founder of New Delhi-based tea franchise Chaiops. “High prices are a particular worry for India’s hundreds of millions of common people, who have already been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on an economy.”
Chaiops has not passed on all price rises to its customers as it is still trying to recover from the financial impact of the pandemic, Mr Singh says.
“This is a challenge to manage the right price with the customer and we have to take care of the food margin to grow the business as well,” he says.
Chai Point, another Indian tea and coffee beverage chain, is also feeling the pinch from high food prices, says Nikunj Gupta, the company’s chief financial officer.
“Inflation is evident in most items but more pronounced in global commodity-led items like coffee, sugar, cooking oil,” says Mr Gupta. Chai Point is absorbing a large part of the price increases, he said.
The surge in food prices is adding to pressure on the RBI to raise interest rates to tame inflation, economists say.
“With inflation likely to exceed 6 per cent for three consecutive quarters, especially if energy prices remain elevated, the RBI is likely to get quite perturbed,” says Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Mumbai-based Emkay Global Financial Services.
Food prices are likely to remain elevated “in the near term [due to the] summer effect, international prices, higher transport cost, supply chains and persistent input costs”, Ms Arora says.
At its monetary policy meeting this month, the RBI decided to keep interest rates on hold despite rising inflation to avoid potentially derailing the country’s economic recovery by increasing borrowing costs.
As rising prices become a bigger concern, this “could pressure the RBI to act sooner than later” when it comes to raising interest rates, Ms Arora says.
While the RBI avoided hiking interest rates at its last meeting, it did shift its stance for the first time since the outbreak of the pandemic more than two years ago to acknowledge that price stability now requires a sharper focus than economic growth.
“Global supply chain disruptions and input cost pressures are now expected to linger even longer,” RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said after this month’s monetary policy meeting.
“The resurgence of Covid-19 infections in some major economies in March and the associated lockdowns run the risk of further aggravating the global supply bottlenecks and input cost pressures.”
Meanwhile, Mr Multani remains hopeful that food inflation will “eventually” ease.
“Though inflation is high in the short term, we expect it will soften in the medium term with improved suppliers,” he says.
However, risks remain and food prices will remain high over the coming months, experts say.
“Definitely, if the war situation continues, the movement of essential food items would be hampered leading to rise in prices,” says Mr Desai.
“Even if the Ukraine-Russia war ends, its impact will be there for some more period before recovery starts.”
DRE Reddy, chief executive and managing partner at Chennai-based food services company CRCL, agrees. “Food prices will continue to face high prices due to the supply chain problems, hike in crude oil and geopolitical tensions,” he says.
Gothia Cup 2025
4,872 matches
1,942 teams
116 pitches
76 nations
26 UAE teams
15 Lebanese teams
2 Kuwaiti teams
Dr Afridi's warning signs of digital addiction
Spending an excessive amount of time on the phone.
Neglecting personal, social, or academic responsibilities.
Losing interest in other activities or hobbies that were once enjoyed.
Having withdrawal symptoms like feeling anxious, restless, or upset when the technology is not available.
Experiencing sleep disturbances or changes in sleep patterns.
What are the guidelines?
Under 18 months: Avoid screen time altogether, except for video chatting with family.
Aged 18-24 months: If screens are introduced, it should be high-quality content watched with a caregiver to help the child understand what they are seeing.
Aged 2-5 years: Limit to one-hour per day of high-quality programming, with co-viewing whenever possible.
Aged 6-12 years: Set consistent limits on screen time to ensure it does not interfere with sleep, physical activity, or social interactions.
Teenagers: Encourage a balanced approach – screens should not replace sleep, exercise, or face-to-face socialisation.
Source: American Paediatric Association
Profile of Hala Insurance
Date Started: September 2018
Founders: Walid and Karim Dib
Based: Abu Dhabi
Employees: Nine
Amount raised: $1.2 million
Funders: Oman Technology Fund, AB Accelerator, 500 Startups, private backers
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Tearful appearance
Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday.
Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow.
She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.
A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
GAC GS8 Specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo
Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km
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Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
Benefits of first-time home buyers' scheme
- Priority access to new homes from participating developers
- Discounts on sales price of off-plan units
- Flexible payment plans from developers
- Mortgages with better interest rates, faster approval times and reduced fees
- DLD registration fee can be paid through banks or credit cards at zero interest rates
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
At a glance
Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year
Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month
Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30
Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse
Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth
Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances
LILO & STITCH
Starring: Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Maia Kealoha, Chris Sanders
Director: Dean Fleischer Camp
Rating: 4.5/5
The specs
- Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
- Power: 640hp
- Torque: 760nm
- On sale: 2026
- Price: Not announced yet
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup – Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
How much of your income do you need to save?
The more you save, the sooner you can retire. Tuan Phan, a board member of SimplyFI.com, says if you save just 5 per cent of your salary, you can expect to work for another 66 years before you are able to retire without too large a drop in income.
In other words, you will not save enough to retire comfortably. If you save 15 per cent, you can forward to another 43 working years. Up that to 40 per cent of your income, and your remaining working life drops to just 22 years. (see table)
Obviously, this is only a rough guide. How much you save will depend on variables, not least your salary and how much you already have in your pension pot. But it shows what you need to do to achieve financial independence.
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Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Results
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COMPANY%20PROFILE%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Haltia.ai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202023%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECo-founders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Arto%20Bendiken%20and%20Talal%20Thabet%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%2C%20UAE%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20AI%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20employees%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2041%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunding%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20About%20%241.7%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Self%2C%20family%20and%20friends%26nbsp%3B%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Ramy%3A%20Season%203%2C%20Episode%201
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'Worse than a prison sentence'
Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.
“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.
“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.
“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.
“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.
“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”
COMPANY%20PROFILE%3A
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EName%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Envision%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2017%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKarthik%20Mahadevan%20and%20Karthik%20Kannan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Netherlands%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Technology%2FAssistive%20Technology%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%241.5%20million%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2020%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204impact%2C%20ABN%20Amro%2C%20Impact%20Ventures%20and%20group%20of%20angels%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
SPECS
Engine: 4-litre V8 twin-turbo
Power: 630hp
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: 8-speed Tiptronic automatic
Price: From Dh599,000
On sale: Now
New Zealand 21 British & Irish Lions 24
New Zealand
Penalties: Barrett (7)
British & Irish Lions
Tries: Faletau, Murray
Penalties: Farrell (4)
Conversions: Farrell
SPECS
Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now
Specs
Engine: Electric motor generating 54.2kWh (Cooper SE and Aceman SE), 64.6kW (Countryman All4 SE)
Power: 218hp (Cooper and Aceman), 313hp (Countryman)
Torque: 330Nm (Cooper and Aceman), 494Nm (Countryman)
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh158,000 (Cooper), Dh168,000 (Aceman), Dh190,000 (Countryman)
